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  • Projecting Minnesota’s Competition in the Carlos Correa Bidding War


    Cody Christie

    Carlos Correa was always expected to opt out of his contract with the Twins. Now, the focus turns to if the Twins can re-sign their superstar shortstop. Here are six teams that Minnesota might need to outbid for Correa’s services.

    Image courtesy of Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

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    Last week, Carlos Correa made it clear that he plans to opt-out of his contract with the Twins. This wasn’t a surprise as he and his representation feel that he is deserving of a long-term deal similar to other top-tier shortstops. Last winter, Corey Seager signed a 10-year, $325 million contract as one of the best shortstops on the market. Seager and Correa are similar ages, so it makes sense for Correa to want a similar contract. 

    Not every team will be looking for a shortstop this winter, but some of baseball’s biggest spenders have a shortstop need. Here are six teams that can potentially be in a bidding war for Correa. 

    Atlanta Braves
    The Braves surprised many by getting hot last October and going on a World Series run. One of the key cogs in their line-up has been Dansby Swanson, who is heading to free agency this winter. Swanson is having a career year as he has a 116 OPS+ and was a first-time All-Star. Correa is seven months younger than Swanson and has a better track record at the big-league level. If the Braves fail to repeat, will they want to make a change at shortstop?

    Chicago White Sox
    Not much went right for the White Sox this season, and now the team will have a new manager for the 2023 campaign. Experts widely projected Chicago to win the AL Central, but injuries and poor play impacted the team throughout the year. Tim Anderson has been one of the team’s regulars in recent seasons, so the team would need to move him to another position to sign Correa. Will the White Sox want to make a big splash for their new manager?

    Boston Red Sox
    Boston will be looking to fill a hole at shortstop as Xander Bogaerts will be a free agent this winter. The four-time All-Star is two years older than Swanson and Correa, so his cost will be significantly less. They added Trevor Story on a six-year contract in the spring, so they could just move him back to the position. The Red Sox expected to contend this season, but they finished in last place in a very competitive AL East. Is it time for a rebuild in Boston, or will the front office try to prop open the club’s winning window?

    Philadelphia Phillies
    The Phillies backed into the playoffs as the NL’s third Wild Card team without playing very well down the stretch. Bryson Stott has played most of the team’s games at shortstop and has an 80 OPS+ for the season. Considering what Bryce Harper and Correa could do in the middle of Philadelphia’s line-up must be intriguing. Will the Phillies be willing to hand out another monster contract?

    Los Angeles Dodgers
    Dodgers fans might implode if Correa signs with the club after the Astros used an elaborate cheating scandal in previous playoff appearances. That being said, LA needs a shortstop for next season as Trea Turner will join Correa on the free agent market. The Dodgers seem more likely to re-sign Turner, especially with how high the club’s payroll has been in recent years. Can the Dodgers look past the cheating scandal from Correa and the Astros?

    New York Yankees
    The Yankees dominated the AL for a large portion of the 2022 season, but struggles in the second half might point to some flaws with the team. Isiah Kiner Falefa was the team’s primary shortstop and posted an 85 OPS+ for the season. The Yankees top two prospects are shortstops as well. New York also has to worry about resigning Aaron Judge this winter. If the Yankees fall short of their World Series goal, will the club be willing to hand out two giant contracts to free agents?

    Will the Twins be able to outbid any of these teams for Correa? Where do you think he signs? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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    If the Yankee's want him, that is a done deal, end of story. Same with the Dodgers, (if the Yankees aren't in it) although it would be fun to see a bidding war between those two "the sky isn't even the limit" teams. I think the Twins are out as I think Correa has to be disgusted by the total collapse of the Twins and lack of much offense this year and what looks like the near future. Red Sox or Philly (who would want to live in Philly?) are my choices assuming the Yankees or Dodgers opt out.

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    1 hour ago, Whitey333 said:

    This team is not even reasonably close to competing for a title.  Correa and Buxton being great together?  Where is that fantasy coming from.  Buxton has and will continue to miss 40-50% of games due to injury.  He is severely injury prone and henceforth not dependable.  IMO the Twins are not in competition with anyone for Correa.  The Twins aren't going to give him that kind of money and years.  Besides, if you do pay him that much then many fans like me will be complaining about the Twins not having enough payroll to add players to make the team competitive.  Carlos best offense month was September.  Just a big salary drive for himself against normally sub par pitching as teams roll out unproven pitchers to see what they can do.  What good is it to sign a big time player if you aren't going to be able to surround him with other good players?  I say let him go.  It didn't do much good to have him this year.  He was in hiding for several months offensively when the club needed him.  Now that he is padding his stats to make it appear he had a good season is not missed on most.

    If your theory is true, that Carlos is padding his stats against weaker pitching in September, wouldn't it also follow that the total major league batting averages and hitting measures should be rising for September, rather than falling. I have tried to find a month to month breakdown of batting stats, but have been unable to find the total MLB hitting stats broken down by months. Will one of you, who can do this, please show us if the batting stats increased over-all during September, as opposed to the prior months.? If not then it may disprove the theory that batting stats increase in September due to weak pitching. I do not know, but my feelings are that the overall batting stats will fall during September, due to tiredness and injuries. I realize that many new players are spreading their wings in September. That is also a variable, which I don't know how to factor in. Maybe we could look month by month for players who have player over 100 games for their teams in 2022. 

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    This whole "pad his stats" thing is ridiculous.  He got hot at the right time,  the rest of the team just didn't follow.   Are you suggesting that if the Twins remained in it he wouldn't be hitting?  If we were still in contention we would be applauding how his bat came around when we needed it. 

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    13 minutes ago, PNW twins said:

    This whole "pad his stats" thing is ridiculous.  He got hot at the right time,  the rest of the team just didn't follow.   Are you suggesting that if the Twins remained in it he wouldn't be hitting?  If we were still in contention we would be applauding how his bat came around when we needed it. 

    Correct! He is clutch and tried to put the team on his back, and performed exceptionally when it counted. The last 30 day drive for a playoff spot. Results this year are not his fault. If we would have made the playoffs I am betting he would have been our star. Great players play great when it counts. He's been surrounded by our AAA this last 30 days.

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    Really!!

    who cares where he goes?

    Twins will not offer that long contract to a non homegrown player, because it is foolish to do so.  Lewis will be the Ss for next 5 seasons and he will then leave via free agency

    wash, repeat, wash

    small market payroll reality 

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    I can't see him going to the Dodgers (they will re-sign Trea Turner) or the Yankees (they've got TWO young SS's that they LOVE.  Kiner-Falefa is around as insurance until one of them, probably Peraza starts).

    Boston would be better off bringing Bogaerts back or shifting Story over.  Really, there aren't a LOT of teams that would be desperate.  Seattle could look to make a bid and move Crawford to 2B.  I just can't see the Cubs going after him and the White Sox have Tim Anderson.  Would they really shift Anderson to the outfield ?  I doubt it.  

    I agree that Correa is a leader and we are a better team WITH him.  We really can't count on Lewis being ready or Brooks Lee who I think will be a fast mover through the system.  The Twins are in position to keep him.  I think it should be the FO's top task this off-season.  I don't think much will happen this off-season until the Yankees re-sign Judge.  

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    On 10/4/2022 at 1:31 PM, chpettit19 said:

    I don't think Carlos is going to have any problem finding his big deal. I think the reason he has Boras as an agent now is because the guy he had last year wildly misread the FA situation before the lockout and cost Correa a huge deal then. So out with the old, in with the new super-agent.

    Boras  was his agent last year, too.

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    4 hours ago, RonCoomersOPS said:

    Boras  was his agent last year, too.

    Boras did not become his agent until January. His previous agent was not able to secure a top contract before the lockout. His previous agent still got a cut of his Twins contract though. If Correa had accepted the option he would get that cut also.

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