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The hope was that the former first round pick would join the big-league roster and provide a lift. The unfortunate reality is that he was called upon with some key players out due to Covid, and the Fightin’ Baldelli’s in the midst of a terrible stretch.
There’s no way to sugarcoat it, Kirilloff has yet to see success. He’s played seven total games in 2021 and posted a .115/.115/.154 slash line. In the six games he’s played since being added to the active roster as a regular, Kirilloff has gone 3-for 23 with five strikeouts and no walks. His BABIP stands at just .150 and his WPA at Baseball Reference checks in at -0.4.
But wait, there’s a lot of good news.
Venturing over to Fangraphs and taking a look at his Statcast numbers, a different story is being told for the Twins left fielder. BABIP and WPA are analytical indicators of events that have taken place. So too is wOBA, which provides increasing values based upon the outcome of each plate appearance. Given Kirilloff’s lack of results, his wOBA is predictably low at .116. His xwOBA though, which measures inputs like launch angle and exit velocity, sits at a strong .376. What that indicates is a nearly 300-point difference between reality and what *should* happen based on inputs.
Now let’s deviate from the results a bit and look into the process. Kirilloff has struck out just six times in 26 plate appearances, or 23.1% of the time. He’s also barreling the ball in 15% of his plate appearances (which would lead Major League Baseball), and he has a hard-hit percentage of 55.0%, trailing only Franmil Reyes and Bryce Harper among qualified hitters.
Kirilloff’s charts show a decent process as well. His average launch angle on balls in play is just eight degrees, falling just short of the 10-degree threshold to be on the lower end of optimal range. He has sprayed the ball to all fields however, unless he’s pulling it on the ground. Although the opposite field has been victimized just 11% of the time, Minnesota’s rookie is going back up the middle over half the time he puts the ball in play.
So, where does that leave us?
Probably in a similar place with respect to the team as a whole. Baseball isn’t mean to be dissected over 26 plate appearances, 23 games, or even 60 games. There’s a 162-game season because nuance is allowed and a generally process refined approach allows for results to find a respected mean. That’s to say, Rocco Baldelli and the Twins should have no issues continuing to run Kirilloff out there because the process is going to bear fruit. A .374 xwOBA would register 44th in Major League Baseball right now had Kirilloff qualified, and there’s plenty of guys that would kill to spank the ball as much as Alex has.
As a rookie Kirilloff will need to stay true to his process. He’s chasing a bit too much and is going to be exploited until he starts seeing results come but opposing pitchers should enjoy their victories now because the tides will eventually turn. This is an extremely mature kid that doesn’t appear phased by much. I’m sure he’s well aware of the results, but I’d also wager he’s plenty locked in on the process.
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