Predicting the Twins Contenders for MLB’s Major Awards in 2023

A healthy Buxton has to be an automatic MVP finalist. Using past bWAR as a predictor, in 2021 he had 4.5 bWAR in 61 games which comes out to 11.8 bWAR for 162 game season and in 2022 he had 4 bWAR in 92 games which comes out to about 7 bWAR for 162 (I was terrible at math so take all of this with a grain of salt). The top two MVP finishers last year were Ohtani with 9.6 bWAR and Judge with 10.6 bWAR. 

If he can just keep it together, he will definitely be in the conversation but that is always a big if. 

Arraez will need peripheral stats (i.e. power) other than BA

Buxton is the only one with a remote chance at one of these awards.  I no longer have faith he can play enough to win one, but the outside chance is there.  One could see him staying healthy and playing platinum glove level CF with 90 XBHs, ending up at some ridiculous WAR around 10.  Remote, but at least seems possible.

Areaz has no shot.  Yordan Alvarez hit .306 with a million HRs and RBIs and finished 3rd.  Arraez would need to add a significant amount of power to his line to even enter the bottom end of the conversation.  We saw his ceiling, IMO.  He’s already dealing with a broken down body.  I don’t see him being healthy all year.  Very good player, but overvalued by Twins fans and has way too many things working against him (power, defense, health).

Maeda might not be in the top 3 on the team for potential Cy Young candidates.   But, none of them really have a shot, so it feels like a waste of time even typing it.

Im not especially high on Wallner.  You never know, I could be wrong.  Maybe he’ll throw together a season like we saw recently from Gallo.  But, I’d be shocked.  The league will adjust to his successful debut, and I expect some struggles in 2023.  With the “depth” we have in the corner OF spots, he might not even stay in the rotation.  If things were wide open for him to work through some struggles, I may feel differently about his chances at an award.

Buxton... Sure.

Anybody else, nope.

Maeda will have his innings monitored too much to be in the conversation.  Gray would have to pitch out of his mind.

No rookies will get enough time to warrant consideration.  Lewis would have the smallest of chances (80 or 90 games could do it if the impact was great enough), but it would depend on when he returns to action.

Slim to none... and Slim and Buxton just went on the Injured List.

I believe Buxton will have shot this year, for MVP.

Lewis will have an impact but will he get enough playing time to qualify for ROY? Even if Wallner has a decent hitting year, play enough with Gallo in the equation, his defense will keep him from coming close.

Gray or Mahle has the best shot for CYA  but I really doubt it.

The Twins should have numerous contenders for comeback player of the year - Buxton, Maeda .., 

Great article for discussion.  Any of these players winning awards next year is pure fantasy.  The only award Buxton could make is MIP.  That's most injured player.  To even be considered Buxton would need to play 140+ games.  He hasn't done that in 5 years.  I wish he could play regularly.  How people project him as an MVP based on success from a limited playing time is beyond me.  I'd love to see how he does in a full season.  We will probably never know.

I don't we have a single player that will qualify for anything. Not sounding negative, but Buck won't be able to stay healthy for 150+ games to garner MVP votes. Arraez doesn't have enough numbers outside OBP and BA to be able to garner votes. Our pitching is going to be about the same as last year. 

So, in reality, the Twins will NOT win the division, will NOT make the post-season, and will NOT have any individual hardware next year.