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We have already begun to see some upward movement. After ranking at the bottom of the AL in homers in both 2011 and 2012, the Twins took a step forward in 2013, going deep 151 times to rank 11th with seven different players reaching double-digits. In 2014 they once again ranked 11th and this year they moved up to 10th.
That might not sound like any kind of major accomplishment but it marks the first time that Minnesota has broken into the Top 10 since 2004, which also happens to be the last time they won a playoff game. That year, a lineup powered by 20+ HR efforts from Corey Koskie, Jacque Jones and Torii Hunter piled up a total of 191 bombs, most for a Twins team since 1987.
It's unlikely they're going to get back to that total in this era of lowered offense (12 teams hit 191 or more homers in 2004, while five did so in 2015), but it's quite plausible that they could once again approach a Top 5 rank in the American League, maybe even as soon as next year.
These five players are big reasons why:
Miguel Sano
He is the obvious starting point. As a 22-year-old rookie seeing MLB pitching for the first time after skipping Triple-A, Sano hit 18 home runs in 80 games this year with the Twins. When you include his 15 homers at Chattanooga prior to being called up, that pushes his season total to 33. Forty is a realistic target for this elite slugging talent. If Sano is in the lineup alongside Trevor Plouffe, rather than as his replacement, those two alone could combine for 60 long balls.
Byung Ho Park
The biggest acquisition of the offseason thus far, Park launched 53 home runs in Korea this year after going deep 52 times in 2014. In total, he has amassed 173 homers over the past four seasons across the pond. While it's impossible to predict how that prodigious power will translate to the majors, one predictive model estimates 27 dingers next year. That would be the highest total for a regular Twins DH since Jason Kubel's 28 in 2009.
Brian Dozier
It's not being talked about much because of his ugly second half, but Dozier took another big step forward in the power department this year, clubbing a career-high 28 home runs. That total was 33 percent higher than the No. 2 second baseman, Robinson Cano. Based on his HR progression in three years as a full-time starter (from 18 to 23 to 28), his 2015 production looks like no fluke. If he comes close to 30 again next year, he'll give the Twins a big edge at a position that is typically low on pop.
Eduardo Escobar
Escobar is another guy who gives the Twins a key positional power advantage. His .445 slugging percentage in 2015 outranked all qualified MLB shortstops other than Brandon Crawford of the Giants. Escobar hit 12 home runs in 127 games this year, which projects to about 15 in a full season. No Minnesota shortstop has reached that total since Roy Smalley in 1979. Dozier and Escobar provide a tremendous power combo up the middle that helps offset the offense's clear weakness at first base.
Oswaldo Arcia
The forgotten man. While his brutal 2015 campaign may have a number of fans down on him, it's important to remember that, among players 24 and under, Arcia's 36 home runs since 2013 ranks 12th in the majors. Since he's out of options and the Twins currently project to have at least one corner outfield opening, I'd expect to see him starting next year with a chance to reestablish his intimidating bat in the middle of the lineup.
Wild Cards: Kennys Vargas and Adam Walker
Vargas is on the outs right now, but he remains on the 40-man roster and would be in line for substantial playing time if either Park or Joe Mauer were to go down with an injury. A massive specimen at 6'5" 290 and still only 25 years old, Vargas' potential in the HR column is obvious, especially if you've ever seen him take BP. Meanwhile, Walker was just added to the 40-man last month after ranking fourth among all minor-leaguers with 31 bombs for Class-AA Chattanooga this year. Many believe that he has the most raw power of any player in the organization -- quite the statement in a system that also includes Sano and Vargas. Another name to keep in mind is Daniel Palka, the 24-year-old outfielder acquired from Arizona in the Chris Herrmann deal who hit 29 homers at Double-A this year.
If they all stay healthy and play up to their demonstrated ability level, it's not unthinkable that six players -- Sano (35), Dozier (25), Park (25), Plouffe (20), Arcia (20), Escobar (15) -- could combine to come close to Minnesota's 2015 team home run total of 156. Sprinkle in some output from guys like Mauer and Eddie Rosario, as well as perhaps a little extra from the wild cards mentioned above, and you have the makings of a legitimate power-hitting lineup that can match up against some of the league's best.
It's been a long time since we've been able to say that around here.
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