Phil Hughes Shows Improvement In Second Spring Start

Assuming Hughes stays healthy, this is shaping up exactly the way most of us figured. We all know his velocity is well below what he used to have as a power pitcher. Command is not really an issue, but he now lacks an 'out pitch' in favorable counts. What should he do? 

What other aging veteran power pitchers do is find a new pitch, like a really slow curve he can dangle over the inside or outside corner, difficult to square up because it's coming at 65 mph and bending two feet. Of course that can backfire, too. Balls like that sometimes fly the other way about 450 feet. 

I think Hughes needs to average 92 mph on his heater to survive as a starter. If he doesn't reach that velocity, he'd better start developing that bolo curve. 

That's what I always thought. And because of that saying, a pitcher's velocity would be close to what it will be during the season. 

Not necessarily. Pitchers can be behind their regular season form while hitters can be even further behind, thus still putting pitchers ahead of hitters.

That makes sense when you think about what all goes into hitting vs. pitching. Hitters have to knock of rust on their swing mechanics and timing, pitch recognition, picking up spin and movement, reaction time, etc. Pitchers are mostly building up arm strength and regaining feel for their motion and pitches. Hitters have to react and be near perfect to have success, meaning often times the pitcher just needs to get the ball to the plate to have a good chance.

I'd really have to agree with Doc.   I'd love nothing more than for PH to succeed and come back healthy, and I think most of us would agree that you don't have to throw gas to be successful (Jamie Moyer anyone?  I think he topped at 87-88 in his prime). 

 

Sure having the ability to rear back and immolate the hitters bat with righteous fury and vengeance is a nice option when you need it, but IF, he can locate his pitches, change speeds/arm angles and keep hitters off balance then he will have success.

 

If I remember correctly, didn't Radke top out at around 91-92?    I remember him being pretty good.

 

So before the grognards and long-beards harrumph my widely optimistic hubris of Spring Training, there is a lot of baseball to be played this spring and I could still be proven to be widely wrong (which is known to happen quite often)... I for one will continue to hope and wish Phil Godspeed and good luck.

I don't know why these names come up every time a pitcher lacks velocity. There's a reason Moyer and Radke were so exceptional. That's because it's really rare and difficult to be consistently successful without a good fastball. Hughes doesn't have a bag of tricks to throw at hitters, he has a fastball/cut fastball/curve and sometimes a change. The change is mid-80s, almost as fast as his new fastball, which doesn't work and is probably why he's all but scrapped it. And his delivery doesn't have much deception to it. So...long story short he needs a real fastball.

Lets see here this is Hughes second time pitching since surgery and his secondary pitches are working. He just needs to build up a little arm strength. And his location was good. Sounds like he is almost back. The question now us will he add 2 or 3 mph to his fastball by the end of spring. I like his chances alot. Put me down for over on his expected contributions this year.

I think Hughes needs to average 92 mph on his heater to survive as a starter. If he doesn't reach that velocity, he'd better start developing that retirement plan.

Fixed.

"I'd put Hughes in the bullpen immediately if he's sitting at 90 in late March. Let him work out his issues in the pen and if he kills it, then consider giving him another shot at the rotation"

Excellent point Brock.  I really hope that Hughes can come back from this.  I can't help but wonder if some of my (misplaced?) enthusiasm for a come back to his initial season with the twins stems from the heartache most of us felt when Kirby Pucket's career was cut short.  I remember being crushed, but still holding out hope that he would overcome what even I knew at the time was a career ending condition.

Phil is making 13M per year. While that's too much for a back of the rotation arm, it's actually not really out of line with back of the bullpen arms these days.

 

If Phil could show some effectiveness in the pen he still might have some value. Hughes also still has some name brand appeal likely. Mark Melancon is making way more than Hughes for example. Melancon also has low velocity and largely uses a cutter.

Hughes' salary shouldn't matter to anything at this point. That's a sunk cost. Put him in the position where he brings the most value to the team from a performance standpoint. Don't care if that's in the rotation, bullpen, or off the roster, but I hope that is the only aspect the team is considering.

He needs to embrace his off speed breaking ball stuff (changeup, slider, curve) and increase there usage while dramatically cutting back on the number of 4 seam fastballs thrown.  Part of the reason he's been pounded the last couple of years is the ridiculous number of fastballs that he throws.  If your a hitter just hack away and eventually you'll get something you like.

Hughes has never shown that he has good feel for off speed stuff. Comparing him to pitchers who do (like Radke) is misleading. I suppose he could learn a lights out change up at this point in his career but it seems unlikely.

Hughes has never shown that he has good feel for off speed stuff. Comparing him to pitchers who do (like Radke) is misleading. I suppose he could learn a lights out change up at this point in his career but it seems unlikely.

Really? Are we watching the same guy?

He can throw sliders, curves and changeups.  In 2010 (arguably his best season), almost 17% of his pitches were curveballs and 5% were changeups.  In 2012 (another good year for him), 19% curve balls, 10% changeups. When he first joined the Twins he started throwing a knuckle curve and that has steadily increased to almost 23% of his offerings, but so has his usage of that cutter which looks like mostly fastball and not slider.  

I think Hughes needs to cut back on the cutter and start throwing sliders again and increase the number of changeups thrown.  If he can't consistently sit in the low 90's he's going to have to reinvent himself.  He's not going to get away with 66-67% of his pitches being 4-seamers and cutters.  But hey what the heck do i know.  Just my thoughts. 

Really? Are we watching the same guy?

 

He can throw sliders, curves and changeups. In 2010 (arguably his best season), almost 17% of his pitches were curveballs and 5% were changeups. In 2012 (another good year for him), 19% curve balls, 10% changeups. When he first joined the Twins he started throwing a knuckle curve and that has steadily increased to almost 23% of his offerings, but so has his usage of that cutter which looks like mostly fastball and not slider.

 

I think Hughes needs to cut back on the cutter and start throwing sliders again and increase the number of changeups thrown. If he can't consistently sit in the low 90's he's going to have to reinvent himself. He's not going to get away with 66-67% of his pitches being 4-seamers and cutters. But hey what the heck do i know. Just my thoughts.

Hughes' salary shouldn't matter to anything at this point. That's a sunk cost. Put him in the position where he brings the most value to the team from a performance standpoint. Don't care if that's in the rotation, bullpen, or off the roster, but I hope that is the only aspect the team is considering.

This is how the Twins should be thinking.

Last year he threw fastballs and cutters.....and everything is hard.

And right down broadway. 

Granted, Twins coaches have been telling pitchers to just throw strikes for years. But if you're throwing nearly every pitch right down the middle, you're going to get burned.