Is Pablo Lopez's Weird "Weakness" Already Fixed?

Not quite an advantage as we will now be playing a more balanced schedule, but I get your point.  There should be improvement in his home field stats.

It's weird that Lopez's home/ away splits were as bad as they were in MIA. Wish he feels very comfortable at Target Field, where he kills it at home. 

So he becomes a better pitcher by pitching in the AL's AAAA league? I'd say that just hides his "weakness" rather than fixes it. By that token, all of the Twins are probably not as good as they appear on paper (which might be true). 

What I like best about this article is the looking deeper into who he faced in those home starts versus road starts. When I look at the specific games, his worst games home and away were against the Mets.  Next worst game was home against the Padres, but one of best road games was against Padres.  

When you look at each team he pitched both home and road Atlanta was basically the same.  Cubs, he did much better at home than in Chicago, could be the park playing in.  Rockies was about equal, no runs allowed either place.  Brewers about equal as well, 0 runs home 1 run road.  Mets he had 5 games only 1 he gave up 1 run in 5 and 3 in 6, other than that he was just bad against them.  Giants he split, doing better on road.  St. Louis he did much better at home.  Nationals he did much better on road in his 2 games, than his 1 home game.

Really, when you look at teams he played both home and away, it is pretty evan.  I think for most part there is not much to look at for the splits. 

I'm not sure what I got from this article  ...

If he can't beat the very good teams ( above 500 clubs ) and beats the teams he suppose to then he will not win a playoff game  ...

I hate hearing we are a weaker division and would rather hear we are a lower revenue division  ... 

You got to play the game , play it the right way and you can compete during the season and maybe contend in the playoffs ... 

I'd like pitchers to think they can beat anybody or at least keep us in the game ,  i want a bulldog please because your article is saying he doesn't win as often to the higher revenue teams ......

Agreed playing against lesser teams more frequently should result in better performance. But the link to being an ace and projecting postseason outcomes is beyond speculation. Postseason wins come from such a wide range of factors and plenty of teams (except apparently the Twins for a long time) find ways to win some postseason games lacking an ace or even an ace type performance.

Consider the loss to the Astros 4-1 in 2020. Maeda delivered an "ace performance" but the defense and relievers broke down in the 9th inning.

The Twins like all MLB teams will be fully capable of winning games in the postseason if they manage to get there.

Twins fans seem spooked by the current postseason losing streak. Maybe a fan version of PTSD...

Maybe the Marlins didn't provide him with enough run support. I doubt that the fans expect him to be an ace when the Twins only traded 1 player yet received 3 in return. 

3 hours ago, GNess said:

Agreed playing against lesser teams more frequently should result in better performance. But the link to being an ace and projecting postseason outcomes is beyond speculation. Postseason wins come from such a wide range of factors and plenty of teams (except apparently the Twins for a long time) find ways to win some postseason games lacking an ace or even an ace type performance.

Consider the loss to the Astros 4-1 in 2020. Maeda delivered an "ace performance" but the defense and relievers broke down in the 9th inning.

The Twins like all MLB teams will be fully capable of winning games in the postseason if they manage to get there.

Twins fans seem spooked by the current postseason losing streak. Maybe a fan version of PTSD...

Getting repeatedly kicked in the face and gut punched will do that.

3 hours ago, Iwasatgame6 said:

When the Lopez trade news broke, the first thing I saw people on twitter yelling about was his home/road splits and that he must therefore not be that good or be getting lucky or whatever.  This provided some helpful context to that argument for me.  I don't think anyone mistakes Pablo for a true Ace, but hopefully we'll get more of that 3.00 ERA and strikeout-per-inning guy!

Im not expecting an ace.  Id consider him being successful if he put up 3.50 ERA and 170 innings.

7 hours ago, GNess said:

Agreed playing against lesser teams more frequently should result in better performance. But the link to being an ace and projecting postseason outcomes is beyond speculation. Postseason wins come from such a wide range of factors and plenty of teams (except apparently the Twins for a long time) find ways to win some postseason games lacking an ace or even an ace type performance.

Consider the loss to the Astros 4-1 in 2020. Maeda delivered an "ace performance" but the defense and relievers broke down in the 9th inning.

The Twins like all MLB teams will be fully capable of winning games in the postseason if they manage to get there.

Twins fans seem spooked by the current postseason losing streak. Maybe a fan version of PTSD...

Can't win post-season games if you're on the golf course.

This article isn't exactly an endorsement of Lopez as a playoff pitcher...here's hoping a tweak or two to his pitching and a better OF defense help him get where we need him to go. 

The same logic would then translate to last year's ERA from our starters....their ERAs were 'artificially' lower...... because they pitched in the Central division.   

17 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I'm not sure what I got from this article  ...

If he can't beat the very good teams ( above 500 clubs ) and beats the teams he suppose to then he will not win a playoff game  ...

It looks like the main point is he can beat anyone as long as he isn't pitching in Miami.  That problem is solved. 

Of course, we really don't know the cause of those weird splits.  Maybe it isn't the stadium, maybe it's home life and will follow him.  Maybe he has a lumpy bed and doesn't sleep as well at home. Maybe he has too many distractions at home and can focus better on the road.  Maybe it's small sample size and will even out.  I didn't check his game log, but maybe the split was caused by one game where he pitched 1-1/3 innings and gave up 10 runs, which this year will happen on the road instead. Maybe it is the stadium, but he will hate Target Field too.  

Or maybe the stadium in Miami is the problem and his road numbers will stay the same and his home ERA will be 2.00 instead of over 4.00, and he will win the Cy Young award and game 7 of the World Series.  (It's February. We're allowed to hope for unrealistic things.)