On the Minnesota Twins Front Office, Faith and Being Fickle 

9 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

One team can do what Tampa does. One. The Twins need to be more aggressive than Tampa, because it is more than unlikely they can duplicate what Tampa does. That said, they can copy some of what Tampa does. .... But they can't just do that. 

No. They have not duplicated Tampa's player identification and development and they certainly have not made the smart trades for players that have not been established at the ML level.  It most certainly is possible.  Every other team in the league (even top markets) are striving to make these improvements.  If we don't get as good or nearly as good we are destined for mediocrity or even failure.  Therefore, for the Twins FO to pursue other less productive strategies would be the height of incompetence.

BTW ... I have had numerous mid level managers tell me they can't do something.  When that something was crucial I recommended to senior management that those people be removed if they cant or wont get on board.  That's what Falvey should do with anyone who is not capable of bringing the Twins to the level of the Rays in these functions.

On 6/23/2021 at 10:53 PM, mikelink45 said:

While I am more old school, I am not ready to give up on the team.  I would hope they might make some adjustments in their thinking, like raising the bar from bad to mediocre dumpster diving in the BP to getting the pitching machine in the minors pumping SP into the rotation.  I am not sold on Rocco so I do not know if he is their reflection or if there is another tweak in the managers office.  I know that measuring the FO is really difficult.  Terry Ryan had some good qualities, but got stuck in linear thinking instead of adjusting.  But who do we bring in?  What do they do or accomplish?

Terry Ryan had an odd tenure in that, IMO, he was fairly effective in his first term (although he wouldn’t go after the finishing pieces, thereby, in effect wasting the value of Mauer and Morneau’s careers to the Twins.

However his second term after Bill Smith was thoroughly awful with bad trade after bad trade, standing pat at trade deadlines. He always thought everything was all right when it clearly wasn’t. It reminded me of Jerry Krause I and II with the Bulls. Very effective then his second term was horrific!

The management did not make the necessary moves last winter and this continues to deliver poor results. There is an unexpected shadow, seemingly, over the Twins. There have been injuries, but Cleveland is missing their top five starters from the beginning of the year and that is after trading Bauer, Kluber, Clevinger, and Carrasco. Cleveland has a woeful offense. How are the Twins trailing Cleveland by ten games? I have not had an occasion to be slightly impressed by the management since the changes were made but I'm a fan and just hope they can learn enough to have a team that is entertaining and competitive. Right now every move made seems to backfire. So faith in our Twins leadership? Not yet and the AL Central is not likely to ever be as non-competitive as it was a few years ago, so management will need to make sound decisions or we will be watching a ton of losing baseball. 

12 minutes ago, cHawk said:

If you don't think a nucleus of Buxton, Sano, Berrios, Kepler, Rosario, Garver, Polanco etc was a nice situation to build around, I don't know what to tell you. It seemed like a pretty good place to be. Certainly a lot better than our current situation.

Maybe, but half of those guys have been regressing mightily in their primes. All of them except Berrios have failed spectacularly in big games. Something tells me they were fools gold. Half of them have been bad since the 2019 playoffs. We weren't winning that series even if we addressed our rotation at the deadline. It may have seemed like a good place to be at the time, it's not looking like that rn. 

How do you know the situation we're in is horrible? Do you predict we're going to see Kirilloff, Larnach, Duran, Balazovic, Celestino, Gordon etc regress in their primes as well?

I like both of these comments, and both seem correct. In my opinion we now need to recognize this nucleus we built went up as far as they were going to go. Maybe we were in a pretty good place. Maybe if we would have signed the correct 2 starting pitchers, and correct 2 relief pitchers last winter things would have gone differently, but we didn't. We need a run now of at least 15 wins out of the next 20 games or this Terry Ryan nucleus is done being the nucleus. Maybe that will work out for us in the long run? We are back to hope. It's a very familiar place to be as Twins fans.

18 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

 

What has this FO done that makes you think they're capable of operating at, or even near, the level of TB? I don't hear the argument that the Twins shouldn't strive to be as elite as the Rays. I'm simply pointing out that realistically they're unlikely to reach that status, and currently they're nowhere near it, which is why I said the practice of dumping stars rather than paying them won't yield the same results. TB has been doing this for 15ish years now, I'm certain all other franchises have taken notice. If the TB process was truly replicable I have a hard time imagining 29+ other executives choosing to ignore it. 

When people say this I assume they have not actually examined the Rays rosters from winning years and examined how the players are acquired.  I have reported these facts in the past.  We fans just ignore facts we don’t like.  The facts are that the Rays have done what many here do not want us to do.  They trade away established players while they still have value for players that are not yet established. For example, in 2019 (96 wins) among players that produced above 1.5 WAR, 50% came from players received in trade before they were established.

They also got very good production from a couple of cheap free agents (dumpster diving)  The Mets paid D Arnuad’s salary and they also had Avasail Garcia.

Some of these players received have been MLB ready.  For example the just traded Adames for J.P. Feyereisen and Drew Rassmussen who are pitching for the Rays right now.  Feyereisen has a 2.08 ERA.  They got Adames by trading away Tommy Pham who they had signed as a free agent.  So, they got a couple years of production out of Adames and then got two pitchers for a player for whom they invested no assets, not even a draft pick.

They also got Xavier Edwards and Hunter Renfroe in the Pham deal.  However, the sent out Jake Cronenworth whois player well for SanDiego.  So, they gave up a prospect that is working out in that one.

How did they acquire the pitchers on that 2019 team.  By far the best on the team was Charlie Morton who the signed for a modest (not cheap) price of 2yrs/$30M.  Of course he wanted to be near his family and that’s a big part of them landing him.  The other two were Yarbrough and Snell at 2.7 WAR each.  Of course they developed Snell.  Yarbrough was acquired by trading Drew Smyly. So. It’s not like they drafted and developed the pitching staff either.  They got Smyly as part of the David Price package.

The takeaway here is that they have been aggressive about trading away established ML players for players yet to become established.  This is certainly not something the Twins are not capable of doing.  However, it is not a strategy supported by many of the participants here.
 

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

When people say this I assume they have not actually examined the Rays rosters from winning years and examined how the players are acquired.  I have reported these facts in the past.  We fans just ignore facts we don’t like.  The facts are that the Rays have done what many here do not want us to do.  They trade away established players while they still have value for players that are not yet established. For example, in 2019 (96 wins) among players that produced above 1.5 WAR, 50% came from players received in trade before they were established.

They also got very good production from a couple of cheap free agents (dumpster diving)  The Mets paid D Arnuad’s salary and they also had Avasail Garcia.

Some of these players received have been MLB ready.  For example the just traded Adames for J.P. Feyereisen and Drew Rassmussen who are pitching for the Rays right now.  Feyereisen has a 2.08 ERA.  They got Adames by trading away Tommy Pham who they had signed as a free agent.  So, they got a couple years of production out of Adames and then got two pitchers for a player for whom they invested no assets, not even a draft pick.

They also got Xavier Edwards and Hunter Renfroe in the Pham deal.  However, the sent out Jake Cronenworth whois player well for SanDiego.  So, they gave up a prospect that is working out in that one.

How did they acquire the pitchers on that 2019 team.  By far the best on the team was Charlie Morton who the signed for a modest (not cheap) price of 2yrs/$30M.  Of course he wanted to be near his family and that’s a big part of them landing him.  The other two were Yarbrough and Snell at 2.7 WAR each.  Of course they developed Snell.  Yarbrough was acquired by trading Drew Smyly. So. It’s not like they drafted and developed the pitching staff either.  They got Smyly as part of the David Price package.

The takeaway here is that they have been aggressive about trading away established ML players for players yet to become established.  This is certainly not something the Twins are not capable of doing.  However, it is not a strategy supported by many of the participants here.
 

TB's success and how it has been achieved isn't in question. The issue is whether the Twins, or any other franchise for that matter, can fully replicate it. I'll ask again, what has this FO done via FA or trades that makes you believe they're capable of being TB? The disagreement centers around whether other teams are able to identify and/or then develop these players in a similar fashion. Like I said above, we've got 15 odd years worth of evidence that says they're not.

If the Twins were in contention, and they traded Simmons for 2 relief pitchers, who is replacing him at SS? He was signed because the team wanted to move away from Polanco there. There isn't a Wander Franco to call up. If Berrios is moved in July, who is taking his place in the rotation? TB has a line of succession: Shields, Price, Archer, Snell, and now Glasnow, that the Twins can't touch. Internal replacements are only one part of the problem. The FA signings by the Twins, particularly on the pitching side have been pretty dismal. How high is your confidence level with talent evaluation right now? If this team is going to move established players at positions of scarcity they can't afford to miss on the return. 

At the moment Alcala is the only player on the active roster who was acquired in the type of move you support. It certainly hasn't been a roaring success. That isn't an indictment of the process, but rather the execution. Nobody is saying that the Twins shouldn't look to acquire guys they view as on the verge of a breakout, but given the current state of the organization it'd be irresponsible to bank on "being the Rays," when there's no safety blanket in the minors, no successors in the current rotation, and a middling track record of success when it comes to acquisition/development. 

38 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

TB's success and how it has been achieved isn't in question. The issue is whether the Twins, or any other franchise for that matter, can fully replicate it. I'll ask again, what has this FO done via FA or trades that makes you believe they're capable of being TB? The disagreement centers around whether other teams are able to identify and/or then develop these players in a similar fashion. Like I said above, we've got 15 odd years worth of evidence that says they're not.

If the Twins were in contention, and they traded Simmons for 2 relief pitchers, who is replacing him at SS? He was signed because the team wanted to move away from Polanco there. There isn't a Wander Franco to call up. If Berrios is moved in July, who is taking his place in the rotation? TB has a line of succession: Shields, Price, Archer, Snell, and now Glasnow, that the Twins can't touch. Internal replacements are only one part of the problem. The FA signings by the Twins, particularly on the pitching side have been pretty dismal. How high is your confidence level with talent evaluation right now? If this team is going to move established players at positions of scarcity they can't afford to miss on the return. 

At the moment Alcala is the only player on the active roster who was acquired in the type of move you support. It certainly hasn't been a roaring success. That isn't an indictment of the process, but rather the execution. Nobody is saying that the Twins shouldn't look to acquire guys they view as on the verge of a breakout, but given the current state of the organization it'd be irresponsible to bank on "being the Rays," when there's no safety blanket in the minors, no successors in the current rotation, and a middling track record of success when it comes to acquisition/development. 

Tell you what.  We have two very different assessments of this situation.  The did not draft and develop these teams.  They traded established talent for prospects.  Some of them were MB ready.  I even gave specific examples and you still are not following the point.  You want them to follow a strategy that is basically the opposite.  You want them to hold on to everyone which is exactly the opposite of what has made them successful.  I think this is exceptionally short-sighted.

Best practices has been the rage in pretty much every industry for the last 20 years.  If you are not executing best practices, you make the changes necessary.  You don't follow inferior strategies and then claim you can't execute better strategies unless you are looking to be fired.  Within the myriad of dumb stuff I encountered while consulting, nothing irritated me more than someone telling me they could not do it the right way. 

I haven't lost faith in the FO, because I can't lose something I never had.  The winning percentage is what it is solely on a 307 home run season that will never be duplicated, and the post season record speaks for itself.  They build teams by trading for prospects and signing free agents (not necessarily in that order).  They give big money to hitters and skimp on pitchers, which gets you through the regular season, but not beyond.  You very likely get my point by now; not a huge fan and never was.  I guess it is in large part by the way they treated Molitor, doing everything humanly possible to sell off his better players, then firing him for not winning enough.  Or was it because he didn't spend enough time in the computer room?   Oh well, never mind.  They want a team in their own image, and I am not sure if they believe they have found it yet.  I have no faith whatsoever they will handle this trade deadline well, but I am dying to be proven wrong.  We all shall see.  Wish them good luck.

On 6/25/2021 at 5:27 PM, Major League Ready said:

Tell you what.  We have two very different assessments of this situation.  The did not draft and develop these teams.  They traded established talent for prospects.  Some of them were MB ready.  I even gave specific examples and you still are not following the point.  You want them to follow a strategy that is basically the opposite.  You want them to hold on to everyone which is exactly the opposite of what has made them successful.  I think this is exceptionally short-sighted.

Best practices has been the rage in pretty much every industry for the last 20 years.  If you are not executing best practices, you make the changes necessary.  You don't follow inferior strategies and then claim you can't execute better strategies unless you are looking to be fired.  Within the myriad of dumb stuff I encountered while consulting, nothing irritated me more than someone telling me they could not do it the right way. 

Yes, we'll disagree about whether TB heavily utilized the draft to build these teams. Not once did I say "hold onto everyone." I was clear about using context when making those decisions. 

Mike said it perfectly, process alone isn't enough. What's your solution for emulating the decision making aspect of TB's FO? We watch baseball and accept that there are varying levels of physical and mental performance, i.e. a hierarchy exists, but those norms don't apply to TB?

7 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Yes, we'll disagree about whether TB heavily utilized the draft to build these teams. Not once did I say "hold onto everyone." I was clear about using context when making those decisions. 

Mike said it perfectly, process alone isn't enough. What's your solution for emulating the decision making aspect of TB's FO? We watch baseball and accept that there are varying levels of physical and mental performance, i.e. a hierarchy exists, but those norms don't apply to TB?

You either have intimate knowledge of the TB processes or you simply don't understand what it takes to assess the operational aspects of an organization.  Even the assessments we did on a single operational function took 10 weeks with complete and unrestricted access. The 10 weeks was after the client provided us with a massive amount of data.  We then did dozen of interviews and validated all the information we collected.  

Several people here seem to think they have a comprehensive understanding of the Minnesota Twins and The Tampa Bay Rays operations.  I know I do not because I do have a comprehensive understanding of what it takes to acquire that insight.  Regardless of this insight, I do know that it is incompetent to pursue less effective practices.  If this group, including leadership can't institute best practices, fire them.  Get people who can.  Don't suggest pursuing less effective practice because that would be truly incompetent.  

All FO make mistakes. Sometimes I feel like fans have unrealistic expectations. I do think it is important to remember that Falvine inherited a good young almost complete line up plus a couple good pitchers. 

23 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

You either have intimate knowledge of the TB processes or you simply don't understand what it takes to assess the operational aspects of an organization.  Even the assessments we did on a single operational function took 10 weeks with complete and unrestricted access. The 10 weeks was after the client provided us with a massive amount of data.  We then did dozen of interviews and validated all the information we collected.  

Several people here seem to think they have a comprehensive understanding of the Minnesota Twins and The Tampa Bay Rays operations.  I know I do not because I do have a comprehensive understanding of what it takes to acquire that insight.  Regardless of this insight, I do know that it is incompetent to pursue less effective practices.  If this group, including leadership can't institute best practices, fire them.  Get people who can.  Don't suggest pursuing less effective practice because that would be truly incompetent.  

What I'm asking is how you intend to bridge the gap between the decisions the Rays actually make, and the decisions those trying to emulate them think they'd make. 

If it's simply a matter of hiring a consulting firm and firing anybody who doesn't get on board, why haven't the 29 other teams had the same level of success? Are they all incompetent? If you hold the secret to accomplishing this monumental feat I'd recommend selling it to the Pohlad's. 

24 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

What I'm asking is how you intend to bridge the gap between the decisions the Rays actually make, and the decisions those trying to emulate them think they'd make. 

If it's simply a matter of hiring a consulting firm and firing anybody who doesn't get on board, why haven't the 29 other teams had the same level of success? Are they all incompetent? If you hold the secret to accomplishing this monumental feat I'd recommend selling it to the Pohlad's. 

They have made really good personnel decisions.  A lot of the people who made those decisions are now with other clubs.  Even the clubs that did not hire their staff have learned from them.  Teams are doing things differently today.  To what degree have the practices that drove those decisions been implemented with the Twins.  None of us has what could be called an informed opinion.  Therefore, IDK the size of the gap or the specific shortcomings.  

I will say that I believe the biggest difference between the Rays and the mid market  teams like the Twins is that they understand the value of years of control.  They have been consistently willing to trade away established players.  Frankly, much of what they do are things that people here despise like trading away Snell, cutting guys because their arbitrations amounts are on the rise and they play a lot of guys cut by other clubs.

I am not going tp to list the common practices in bridging these gaps because frankly I don't think people care.  I think they want to bitch because the team has sucked.  I will add that I would make sure I found the people capable of understanding and implementing these practices.  Then, you have to be willing to operate the way they do.  For example, they would not let Berrios and/or Buxton hit free agency.  If they could not sign them, they would trade them.  That has obviously been an unpopular strategy here but it does not make sense to say we are not capable of making there decisions if you are unwilling to make the decisions they make.  

On 6/29/2021 at 3:29 PM, Major League Ready said:

They have made really good personnel decisions.  A lot of the people who made those decisions are now with other clubs.  Even the clubs that did not hire their staff have learned from them.  Teams are doing things differently today.  To what degree have the practices that drove those decisions been implemented with the Twins.  None of us has what could be called an informed opinion.  Therefore, IDK the size of the gap or the specific shortcomings.  

I will say that I believe the biggest difference between the Rays and the mid market  teams like the Twins is that they understand the value of years of control.  They have been consistently willing to trade away established players.  Frankly, much of what they do are things that people here despise like trading away Snell, cutting guys because their arbitrations amounts are on the rise and they play a lot of guys cut by other clubs.

I am not going tp to list the common practices in bridging these gaps because frankly I don't think people care.  I think they want to bitch because the team has sucked.  I will add that I would make sure I found the people capable of understanding and implementing these practices.  Then, you have to be willing to operate the way they do.  For example, they would not let Berrios and/or Buxton hit free agency.  If they could not sign them, they would trade them.  That has obviously been an unpopular strategy here but it does not make sense to say we are not capable of making there decisions if you are unwilling to make the decisions they make.  

The question was borderline rhetorical. In my view aptitude is at play beyond just a process, i.e. the natural ability of the individual(s) at the top to interpret and select is what sets them apart, and I have very serious doubts that can simply be learned or followed.

TB's success is predicated on their ability to replace said players, not on the fact they're unwilling to pay for retaining their services. The Twins are certainly capable of trading away Buxton, Berrios, ect, that has never been a question. The argument centers around how easy or attainable accomplishing that second part really is. I think we'll just disagree here.....

I concede to you Tom that you know more about the pitching development. I've tried to give the FO as much leeway as possible but like you I've lost faith with them. Their mindsets don't seem to change and they're not able to make the trades to take us to the next level the way that Macphail had