On Phil Hughes And Regression

During the team’s conference call with the media, when asked about the additional years, general manager Terry Ryan said that there are always risks associated with pitchers. Signing a pitcher is like buying a used car -- eventually something is going to break and you just hope it is nothing major. Ryan, however, felt like the team was making a relatively safe investment in Hughes, citing his age (28) and his mechanics as reasons why the front office felt confident in extending the pitcher.

When it was Hughes’ turn to speak, he began by offering up his thanks to his former pitching coach. “I would feel guilty if I didn’t thank Rick Anderson for all he did for me last year,” Hughes said.

Hughes’ success in 2014 has been attributed to many different elements -- from his revamped repertoire to a more spacious stadium to remaining focused on the task at hand. Some of it may have been from Anderson, some may have been his own doing but all played a significant factor in his outcome last year: The remodeled arsenal, which featured the addition of a can’t-touch-me cutter, led to more strikeouts, the roomier configurations reduced the number of fly balls escaping the playing surface, and his regained confidence allowed him to attack the strike zone better than he ever did in New York.

Even with the positive strides he made last season, it is hard for baseball analysts not to conjure up the r-word: regression. Career low in walks? Bound to increase next season. Lowest rate of fly balls leaving the yard? That will bounce back hard. When all the regressing is said and done, the Twins will rue the day they extended Phil Hughes.

Hughes obviously disagreed.

While there are elements of his game that might experience some regression, Hughes said on the conference call that he made enough tangible changes to his approach that 2014 was not an outlier but rather the new direction of his career. And the repertoire, reduced home runs and added confidence all stemmed from his improved mechanics.

What is interesting about Ryan’s trust in Hughes’ mechanics is that it was his mechanics that were to blame for the the up-and-down seasons with the Yankees. As Andy McCullough wrote in The Star-Ledger in September 2013 “scouts observed the same flaws in his delivery this season. One talent evaluator referred to the motion as “herky-jerky.” Hughes lacks the sort of fluid arm swing that is easily repeatable.” One baseball executive called Hughes’ mechanics “high maintenance”. Meanwhile, in just one season Hughes is being well compensated for his mechanics.

Upon arriving in Fort Myers, Hughes and Anderson consulted on his mechanics. There would be no major overhaul, just streamlining the process that focused on smoothing everything out. "I've just been trying to stay on my back side taller, because I have a tendency when I get over the rubber on my leg kick to just collapse and kind of drop and drive," Hughes told MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger this past spring. "So I'm just trying to stay back. It puts me in a better position to throw the baseball in."

The results of the tweaks is a more fluid, repeatable delivery.

Reviewing clips of Hughes this year versus last, you can see he worked diligently to implement this into his delivery. Though the center field cameras are not the ideal shots (a better view would be from the side), this one example of Hughes’ motion in 2014 represents the overall changes he made in terms of being able to stay back and stay taller at his release point. In 2013 by dropping in his delivery, his mechanics had him often releasing the ball too far out front of his body.

Watch his upper body/head in the two clips:

http://i.imgur.com/CEt7cDC.gif

http://i.imgur.com/RlbxTQU.gif

The 2014 version is much more fluid, much more in control.

Going forward, Hughes certainly may experience regression in 2015. When you set the standard for all-time highest strikeout-to-walk ratio the previous season, it will be difficult to top the following year. Yes, the home runs-to-fly ball percentage might grow and he may allow a few more runs to cross the plate. That being said, Hughes is simply not the same pitcher he was in New York. If he is able to maintain the consistent mechanics (while remaining healthy), there is no reason to anticipate any significant regression next season for Phil Hughes.