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Of course, Molitor also indicated that he is counting on Danny Santana to play a vital role at the top of the order. "I see Danny at the top for the most part to be honest with you,” the new manager told Twins Daily’s Nick Nelson recently. “Because I like the dimension he brings to that spot."
Based on Santana’s rookie season, it is not difficult to see the reason to want to put him at the top spot but if the actual desire is to have a hitter with a .370+ OBP batting leadoff, Santana is probably not the right candidate.
The Twins organization obviously expects regression.
"Historically my gut tells me that it's not sustainable because he didn't put up those kinds of numbers in the minor leagues," general manager Terry Ryan said last fall regarding Santana's future. "If you're going to be true to yourself and what you know has happened with historically 95 percent of the players, you've got to expect a little bit of a back-off of those numbers, but that would be plenty good enough."
Dating back to 1961* Santana has had the third highest batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Read that again: Dating back to the John F. Kennedy administration, Santana has been able to reach safely when putting the bat on the ball more frequently than all but two people. Given the amount of scouting, video, and data available in this era to figure out how to pitch to and defend against hitters, it is somewhat remarkable that there are hitters now who can put the ball in play and it winds up a hit 40% of the time.
What is even more remarkable is that there were two last year who managed to do that:
Santana, of course, and Colorado’s Drew Stubbs were the two players joining Cincinnati’s Joey Votto (2012), Jose Hernandez (2002) and Manny Ramirez (2000) to achieve a batting average on balls in play over .400 since the turn of the last century.
To contextualize: Since the 1961 season, there have been 33 occasions when a hitter with a minimum of 400 plate appearances has managed to produce/get blessed with a BABIP over .390 in a season. That is a small pool of players. The pool grows even smaller when you consider that four players managed to reach that milestone twice in their careers (Bobby Abreu, Derek Jeter, Roberto Clemente, and Rod Carew). Only Abreu managed to perform the feat in consecutive seasons (1998 and 1999).
While there are legendary hitters on that list like the aforementioned Jeter, Carew and Clemente, there are plenty of other one-hit wonders that managed to catch lightning in a bottle. There’s Reggie Jefferson who had a breakout year with Boston in 1996. Milwaukee’s Hernandez reached the list by limiting the number of balls he put into play (he struck out 188 times that season). Shane Mack, Mariano Duncan, BJ Upton, Phil Bradley -- there’s no rhyme or reason to this list.
The takeaway is that batting average on balls in play is comprised of some element of luck. You can be a great hitter with amazing speed like Ichiro Suzuki and manage to obtain a .390 BABIP just once in a 14 year career. Or you could be like Jefferson who, in 1996, figured out that if you can bang it off the Monster it won’t get caught and it will stay in play.
This is all to say that repeating the numbers Santana posted 2014 feels virtually impossible -- like finding a place that serves decent unicorn burgers. (So hard to find in the western suburbs.) It takes an uniquely talented hitter with a special level of luck to repeat that sort of action. So the question is: Is Danny Santana a uniquely talented hitter?
Ryan said his evaluators like Santana’s surprising power potential. “I think the one thing that people didn’t realize up here that hadn’t seen him, he’s got strength,” Ryan said after last season. “He can drive the ball. He’s not a banjo hitter, he’s not a singles guy. He can drive the ball from both sides. He can reach the fences so he’s going to keep the defenses honest.”
Santana’s power is an interesting facet of his game. When you look over his spray chart, a high percentage of his extra base hits go down the lines rather than in the gaps. If outfielders/corner infielders hug the lines, this opens up the gaps and middle of the field more for the base hits. However, Santana has not demonstrated the consistent ability to reach the fences, which would entice the outfield to play back and give him more real estate just outside of the infield.
His speed is clearly one of the biggest assets of his arsenal. This has given him the ability to take an extra base as well as get to first when others might not. According to Fangraphs.com, 12.7% of his hits did not leave the infield, meaning he had to turn on the afterburners and kick chalk in a hurry to reach safely. Like this:
http://i.imgur.com/WmGjMV1.gif
Both he and Stubbs excelled at having grounders find their way through the infield (or as mentioned above, beating the throw down the line). This trait correlates well with overall BABIP success and when you break it down, it makes sense. The ground ball is the most common method the ball is put into play (compared to line drive and fly ball) so having a high percentage that go for hits will bolster the overall BABIP:
Via ESPN/TruMedia.
But counting on getting hits via ground ball is volatile -- since 2009 hitters have posted a batting average in play of .257 on wormburners. That being said, those with wheels have been able to produce consistently above average in that category. Danny Santana certainly fits that mold but his otherworldly ground ball BABIP is due for regression to the mean.
In addition to being able to beat out grounders, Santana is a fairly skilled bunter when it comes to bunting for a hit. More likely to bunt from the left-side of the plate (17 of 18 attempts in 2014), Santana has both been able to deaden the ball in the third base-pitcher-catcher no-man’s land or take it with him like this:
http://i.imgur.com/UaZIfqM.gif
These are the finer points in Santana’s game that will help him gain hits within the margins but when it comes to his on-base percentage, with his above-average strikeout rate in conjunction with his below-average walk rate, he has little wiggle room to avoid regression. Without a robust walk rate, he lacks the stability that free passes provide.
In summary, this was a lot of energy spent to say, yes, expect Danny Santana to regress at the plate in 2015. He still has a strong skill set that should help him continue to gather plenty of hits.
*Arbitrary? Sure. Whatever. Finish your taco.
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