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  • Official Winter Meetings Wednesday Thread


    Seth Stohs

    Crickets...

    That's the sound coming from Minnesota Twins camp so far at the Winter Meetings in Washington DC. There has been some Brian Dozier talk, though some of that was because he was scheduled to be at the meetings for other reasons. They promoted a couple of guys in the scouting department. They signed Ben Paulsen to a minor league deal.

    Traditionally, Wednesday is the busiest day at the Winter Meetings. The first few days involve a lot of discussions, and then the GMs (and Chief Baseball Officers) take what they've heard and start to reach agreements, be it with free agents or with other trade partners.

    Image courtesy of Dan Hamilton, USA Today

    Twins Video

    While such a quiet Winter Meetings may have been frustrating under the Terry Ryan regime, it is completely understandable under Derek Falvey and Thad Levine. As Nick wrote last night, "The Twins moved quickly on Jason Castro, because doing so was necessary to lock up the coveted catcher, but now there is little need for urgency."

    They should not feel pushed to rush on a Brian Dozier trade. They are 100% correct in saying that they need to be "inspired" to trade him. They should expect elite, young pitching in return.

    I agree with their philosophy of taking a broad view of the organization before jumping into too much drastic. That’s why I think they’re wise in keeping a lot of the current front office, shifting some people around, and bringing in new talent when it is available.

    Likewise, they need to know the ins and outs of their 40-man roster and the entire minor league system. While they certainly had some information on everyone in the organization, they likely have grown their knowledge of their new organization tenfold since taking over.

    There is talent in the organization. Consider in the last year or two the Twins have called up Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, Jose Berrios, JT Chargois. Adalberto Mejia was acquired in the Eduardo Nunez deal, and he’s a solid starting pitching prospect who should get more of an opportunity in 2017. Also in the next year or two, we could see players like Mitch Garver, Nick Gordon, Engelb Vielma, Nick Burdi, Jake Reed, Mason Melotakis, Trevor Hildenberger, John Curtiss, Stephen Gonsalves, Kohl Stewart, Felix Jorge, Fernando Romero, Tyler Jay and others.

    I’m not naive enough to think that they will all pan out. I do know that the more players with the potential of the above names, the more likely that a few of them will pan out and become very good major leaguers and several more will still be able to contribute in a role of some sort. Add to that list a few more prospects with big league potential from a likely Brian Dozier trade, and that’s encouraging.

    But again, that’s not to say that the Twins should do nothing at all. It’s just important to know that they don’t have to have all of their offseason transactions complete by Thursday.

    We have heard that the Twins have had discussions regarding Dozier. Yesterday, we learned that they’ve had some discussions regarding Brandon Kintzler. We heard last week that they’ve had some discussions about Kennys Vargas. And, while we haven’t heard it, I would think that some discussions have been had about Hector Santiago.

    The Winter Meetings are about having those discussions in person. Some deals could be made today or tomorrow, but some discussions with teams or free agents could linger for the next few weeks. And, frankly, there are always still quality players available in January.

    So, the crickets are chirping, but that isn’t necessarily a bad thing.

    BRIAN DOZIER UPDATE

    TUESDAY RECAP

    A few things did happen at the Winter Meetings on Tuesday. Here’s a quick rundown:

    • Mike Berardino informed us early in the day on Tuesday that the Twins had re-signed RHP Yorman Landa to a minor league deal. That is almost surprising because why wouldn't they wait until after Thursday's Rule 5 draft to do that. Assuming he's actually signed (and hasn't just agreed to terms) before Thursday morning's Rule 5 draft, he would be eligible to be selected.
    • The big news was, without question the Chris Sale trade to the Boston Red Sox. While there were rumors involving the Nationals earlier in the week, it sounds as if the Red Sox made their offer late last week and let the White Sox see if anyone could top it. Well, offering Yoan Moncada (the #1 prospect in baseball), Michael Kopech (a risk, but a guy who throws 100+ and ‘could’ be a starter) and two other prospects would be tough to beat. Making it better for the White Sox, the Red Sox are still on the hook for the $30 million signing bonus they gave Moncada. For the Red Sox, well, they have a rotation of Chris Sale, David Price, Rick Porcello, Steven Wright and Eduardo Rodriguez.
    • The White Sox likely aren’t done, and they will likely maintain contact with the Nationals. Jose Quintana is one of the more underrated starting pitchers in baseball, and the Nationals may be a place for him to go. The White Sox will likely also continue shopping 3B Todd Frazier and RP David Robertson.
    • The Red Sox were actually quite busy on Tuesday. Earlier in the day, the acquired reliever Tyler Thornburg from the Brewers for three young players including corner infielder Travis Shaw. Thornburg is another strong bullpen arm ready to set up for Craig Kimbrel. Shaw is the guy who beat out Pablo Sandoval as the Red Sox opening day third baseman. Sandoval ended up having surgery. He returned to the Instructional League this fall, and clearly the Red Sox would like him to be their third baseman and this helps open that up for him.
    • The Red Sox also signed veteran first baseman Mitch Moreland. Moreland has an OPS over 1.000 in his career at Fenway Park. He also is statistically one of the best first basemen in baseball defensively. Makes me wonder if Hanley Ramirez makes the move to DH at this point.
    • After midnight, Bob Nightengale tweeted that the Cubs and Royals have an agreement in place. Wade Davis will go to the World Series champs with OF Jorge Soler heading to the Royals. Davis has just one year left on his contract. Soler is immensely talented, but he’s stuck behind the likes of Ben Zobrist, Kyle Schwarber, Jason Heyward and even Albert Almora in the Cubs talented outfield.
    • A couple of former Twins players found 2017 homes on Tuesday. Carlos Gomez re-signed with the Texas Rangers. He agreed to a one year, $11.5 million deal (pending physical, of course).
    • Wilson Ramos, who would have made a ton of money if not for his late-season knee injury, agreed to terms with the Tampa Bay Rays on a two year deal with $12.5 million guaranteed and incentives that could push the deal to $18.25 million over those two years. Again, it is pending physical, which, based on how his rehab is going, could be complex. He is likely to miss at least the first half of the 2017 season, so my assumption is that his incentives would be simply based on Games Played or Plate Appearances. If he’s healthy and able to play, he’ll make more money. But the Rays minimize their risk somewhat too.
    • Yesterday, we heard that Cleveland was talking to Edwin Encarnacion, probably the best hitter on the market. He’s not a guy I would necessarily want to see in the lineup against the Twins 19 times a season. Tuesday, we learned that they talked to another former Blue Jays hitter as well, Jose Bautista. The thought of him hitting against the Twins 19 games a year, rather than six of seven, is a bit scary.
    • Aroldis Chapman allegedly has a $92 million offer on the table. To me, that would likely be a six year deal, right? The Yankees have said they haven’t offered him that. It’s hard to believe that Miami would have offered him that. So, who could have made that offer? Or, is that a case of an agent leaking something, hoping to boost the deals that Chapman has already been offered. He’s going to get paid, for sure. Kenley Jansen is going to make a ton of money too.

    Feel free to ask questions, discuss rumors or transactions, and enjoy the day.

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    Depends on what you need.  If I already have a playoff team, I'd take the risk on Hill.  If I need to fill out a rotation just to get to the playoffs, I'd take Ervin.  (And if I'm pretty far from the playoffs, I'd probably take the risk on Hill too -- if he works out, he's easier to flip for an impact prospect. I think teams will continue to have interest in Ervin, but will ultimately be fairly wishy-washy about ponying up much to acquire him,)

    I agree. A team like Seattle or Baltimore needs the ~200 steady innings Santana could provide than rolling the dice on upside. A team like the Dodgers need the potential upside more than innings.

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    Dave Cameron's thoughts:

     

    acesfull2312:04 What in god's name are the Rockies doing?

     

    Dave Cameron
    12:04 Apparently, every year one NL West team has to get tired of their position and try to win prematurely. Two years ago, it was the Padres. Last year, it was the D'Backs. Now it's the Rockies turn.

    Yeah, let's criticize a team for signing a quality player to a fair deal. Nolan Arenado is in his prime, Car-go is still very good, they have the batting champ in Lemehieu, and some of their young pitching is up and pitching well. Why not make a big free agent signing?

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    The last thing the Twins should be doing at this stage is trading minor leaguers for "veteran" pitchers.

     

    I wouldn't mind Pom or Buch, but I don't want them to give up any player with a potential future here.

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    Yes.  Why are you so down on Gordon?  You wanted the Twins to draft him.  He's a HS kid so it takes longer.  

     

    I predicted they'd draft him....and kind of wanted it, yes. I'm not down on him, I'm disappointed players picked after him are up, and are very good/great. It's not my job to pick the right players......if we are going to judge the success of this team in acquiring talent vs me, as opposed to MLB teams, I'm not in that game....

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    I predicted they'd draft him....and kind of wanted it, yes. I'm not down on him, I'm disappointed players picked after him are up, and are very good/great. It's not my job to pick the right players......if we are going to judge the success of this team in acquiring talent vs me, as opposed to MLB teams, I'm not in that game....

    It's too early to judge though.  Gordon has been pretty much what was expected.  

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    It's too early to judge though.  Gordon has been pretty much what was expected.  

     

    Where did I actually JUDGE, or call him a bust, or any other thing, other than pointing out Turner was drafted after him? I'm the one still saying he can play SS for this team some day, so I literally have no idea what you are posting about here.

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    Back when Farvey was hired, there were rumors his best man would be joining him at the Twins. Has that happened?

    He re-upped with the Indians. Sounded like Falvey will be bringing no one from the Indians according to reports made a few weeks ago (there may have been an article, but I do remember tweets). And it sounded like Levine also had a verbal agreement to not take anyone from TX.

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    Yeah, let's criticize a team for signing a quality player to a fair deal. Nolan Arenado is in his prime, Car-go is still very good, they have the batting champ in Lemehieu, and some of their young pitching is up and pitching well. Why not make a big free agent signing?

    Some might quibble with "fair deal." After his hot start, Desmond finished last season with a 104 OPS+.  He has a 100 career mark, and hasn't been significantly better than that since his age 26-27 seasons.  He hasn't been much other than an average defender either.

     

    And in the last year of teams being able to lose first round picks, the Rockies just forfeited the #11 overall pick (and its accompanying slot value) for the right to guarantee Desmond $14 mil per year for his age 31-35 seasons.

     

    It's a fairly weak market too, so it doesn't look like the Rockies will even be able to sign another FA with qualifying offer attached (which would have effectively bumped Desmond's forfeiture down to a 2nd rounder).  Trumbo, Encarnacion, Bautista, Fowler, Jansen, and Turner are the only ones left.

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    I remember Turner, 6 months before the draft, was considered a cant miss, awesome talent, projected to go in the top couple picks.

     

    Given his position, perceived closeness to the majors, and his quality, I honed in on him as who I wanted. But it didn't look like he would drop to us. Then in the spring, he started to slip, and it was for what seemed like not great reasons. 

     

    I'm not surprised he's ended up being a very good player and I still wish we would have stuck with the 6-months-out projection of him.

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    Yeah, let's criticize a team for signing a quality player to a fair deal. Nolan Arenado is in his prime, Car-go is still very good, they have the batting champ in Lemehieu, and some of their young pitching is up and pitching well. Why not make a big free agent signing?

    In my mind it's not that they made a free agent splash, it's who they made the splash with.  Signing a 5 year/$70M deal with a 31 year old who is just a season removed for 4 successive years in decline is what makes this a curious move to me.  The forfeited draft pick only makes it worse.

    Edited by wsnydes
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    I predicted they'd draft him....and kind of wanted it, yes. I'm not down on him, I'm disappointed players picked after him are up, and are very good/great. It's not my job to pick the right players......if we are going to judge the success of this team in acquiring talent vs me, as opposed to MLB teams, I'm not in that game....

    Sure, but the fact that the Padres drafted Turner at #13 doesn't necessarily mean that they would have taken Turner instead of Gordon. It is entirely possible that every single team would have taken Gordon over Turner if given the choice - unfortunately, we don't get to see each team's draft board. So comparing the success of the Twins versus other teams isn't as simple as just saying that the Twins messed up because later picks worked out. And its is particularly difficult when dealing with a large tier of similarly ranked players. Take the Gordon pick. There were something like 10 names legitimately brought up (both on this site and among various draft experts) for that spot: Gordon, Jackson, Nola, Freeland, Turner, Newcomb, and Toussaint for sure. I also liked Holmes and Hoffman. All had their pros and cons, with passionate fans on all sides. The fact that a handful of them have worked out better than Gordon (so far) isn't at all surprising - in fact, it is expected given the odds and the size of the pool.

     

    Sorry for the rant, but judging draft performance in a context-neutral way (and trying to separate the actual talent evaluation from the player development) is something I've thought a lot about. It is a really tough problem, and maybe impossible, but I'd really like to figure out a way to systematically grade a team's performance without resorting to "this other player drafted X picks later is better" arguments.

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    I also never did that, I never judged the pick.....I MERELY POINTED OUT HE WAS UP AND GREAT.

     

    NOTHING MORE THAN THAT WAS DONE.

     

    WHY DO PEOPLE NEED TO NEED TO ATTACK THINGS THAT WERE NEVER DONE?

     

    WHY?

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    Wonder if the Rockies would have some interest in revisiting the Kyle Gibson trade interest?

    Probably don't want to trade Gibson now. Not at maximum value. Would have gotten a bigger return for him last offseason. However, if Gibson can keep his ERA in the 3's this year and has a good season, the Rockies would be worth watching on him at this years trade deadline. Could potentially get a big haul. Plus it appears the Rockies are gearing up for a run soon with the signing of Desmond. They have a freaking potent line up.

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    In my mind it's not that they made a free agent splash, it's who they made the splash with.  Signing a 5 year/$70M deal with a 31 year old who is just a season removed for 4 successive years in decline is what makes this a curious move to me.  The forfeited draft pick only makes it worse.

    Yeah, that's a good point. Mark Trumbo might seem like a better fit, especially since it sounds like Desmond is going to play 1B. They get some positional flexibility though, and I'm still a fan of the move overall.

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    He re-upped with the Indians. Sounded like Falvey will be bringing no one from the Indians according to reports made a few weeks ago (there may have been an article, but I do remember tweets). And it sounded like Levine also had a verbal agreement to not take anyone from TX.

    Thanks!

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    Soler has nearly 3x the walk rate of Rosario. And then it depends on how much you buy into defensive metrics. The Royals seem to be a bit old school when it comes that, but my impression of them may be wrong.

    royals have one of the best defensive OF in the game. One might argue when a healthy Gordon, Cain and Dyson are out there, they have the best defensive OF in baseball. And Orlando is awesome too. They led the majors in DRS for OF and were 2nd in UZR. Edited by jimmer
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    Yeah, that's a good point. Mark Trumbo might seem like a better fit, especially since it sounds like Desmond is going to play 1B. They get some positional flexibility though, and I'm still a fan of the move overall.

    Desmond is going to play 1B? That's terrible.

     

    Desmond had a 104 OPS+ last year, 100 career. The Rockies 1B last year, Mark Reynolds, had a 101 OPS+, and a 104 career mark. And Reynolds graded out as an average defender at 1B too, and played for a $2.6 mil salary.

     

    Even Desmond's positional flexibility isn't worth much in Colorado, because they are set at CF and all around the infield.  He's basically a glorified 1B and corner OF there.

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    Plus it appears the Rockies are gearing up for a run soon with the signing of Desmond. They have a freaking potent line up.

    "Freaking potent" is probably an oversell, or not taking park factors into account. The Rockies offense was 8th of 15 in the NL, and 16th of 30 in MLB, by wRC+ last year.  And that's with career seasons from LeMahieu and Blackmon, and Story probably due for some regression too.

     

    And they just spent $70 mil and the 11th overall pick on a lateral move at 1B (plus a backup SS/CF, if you give Desmond credit for positional versatility).

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    Desmond to play 1B, well into his thirties, for that much money, and losing the 11th pick?

     

    I'm not sure my fandom could survive that move.

     

    Yeah, that's just insane. For one thing, they must have stopped watching baseball about the same time they were mathematically eliminated last year, that being the middle of July, because he was awful after that point just as he was at the end of his career in Washington.

     

    For another, Colorado should know by now that a hunchback with tuberculosis holding a broom handle can put up an .800 OPS in Coors Field. Why not just pay Brandon Moss a fraction of what you just gave Desmond to do practically the same thing?

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