Notebook: Bauer Makes His Move

                ......and we got Ian Hamilton.....

                ......and we got Ian Hamilton.....

I am pretty sure we got Cruz / Simmons / Happ / Colome / Robles and then traded a surplus replacement level guy from a position of depth for a pitcher that has a pretty good chance of contributing. Oh ... and we claimed a guy with a shot at contributing. I would add there are guys scattered around pretty much every playoff team that were acquired while relatively unproven that went on to be very good players. Just take a look at Tampa or even the Dodgers.

I like the comparison of Wong and Simmons and their impacts on the new teams.  

Not being locked into Ozuna for four years could be a very good thing.

A pitcher receiving over $1 million per start is not what I call a good investment.  Checking 2019 the most starts for a Dodgers pitcher was 31.  Two teams outbid one another and Bauer and his agent chuckled all off season.

Agreed. That is a ridiculous contract, snd I hope it backfires for the Dodgers. Amassing a group of good, improving younger players is a better strategy than overbidding for aging players who have been good in previous years. The Twins can sign Andrelton Simmons to improve SS for a year, but the future for this team is developing a talented SS - hopefully Royce Lewis, but maybe someone else in the system. That is true at every other position (with exception of DH).

I was NOT a big supporter of the Josh Donaldson long-term contract, for example. I hope I’m wrong on that. I have less problem in signing aging players at DH (Chili Davis, Thome, Cruz) to one and two year deals, but thought it was time to move on from Cruz this year. The future is with amassing talented, younger players.

I'm a Twins fan FIRST and a Dodgers fan 2nd.  (goes back to childhood).

While I'm happy Bauer chose the Dodgers over the Mets (because he's pretty good)

I think the deal is CRAZY !!

Bauer is NOT Jacob deGrom.  Bauer has been very good in 2 of the last 3 seasons but his overall career numbers are somewhat pedestrian.

Maybe he's ready to turn the corner for a number of years of sustained excellence.

But those kind of contract numbers are something only the Dodgers, Yankees and maybe the Mets and Red Sox can "absorb" if it doesn't work out.

Bauer is now set to make more than the entire 26-man rosters of 3 teams.

(The Cleveland Indians are one of them).  

That's just CRAZY.  

The Bauer deal is wildly great for the player. If he's awesome, he can opt-out and get an even bigger deal. If he's average, he sticks for another year at a giant salary, rinse and repeat. I mean, great for the player...but this is the kind of contract risk the Twins can't afford.

Bauer was unquestionably the choice for the Cy last year. But there's a real chance that this year he's roughly as effective overall as Jake Odorizzi. Bauer's upside is higher and he'll pitch deeper into games, but going back to 2015, Odorizzi has had more 3+ bWAR seasons than Bauer. Maybe Bauer is great again, dominant and unhittable...or maybe 11 starts in the pandemic aren't a very good judge of his value and he regresses much closer to his career averages and he's a 3 bWAR pitcher and staggeringly overpaid. As great as Bauer was over 11 starts last season, he was trash in 10 starts after getting dealt to Cincy the previous year.

There is massive risk in this deal. I wouldn't throw this kind of money at Bauer even if I had it in the budget. Maybe it'll pay out for the Dodgers, but I think the only person who wins on this one is Bauer, who gets to be a FA again quickly if he has a great year, gets paid top 5 starter money the next 2 years regardless, and gets to do it on a team that is loaded with talent so they'll win a bunch even if he's not all that great.

Love this deal, for the Twins.

Should the Twins be so fortunate to win a couple playoff series and make the World Series there is a good chance they will face the Dodgers. Would love seeing Bauer on the hill against the Twins in game 1 or 2 of the Series. With Max Kepler hitting in the middle of the Twins lineup its a guaranteed early shower for Bauer followed by a Twins W.

What I find odd about this deal is that the Dodgers don't need Bauer. They already have six quality starters (including Price). Does adding Bauer make them better?

I am pretty sure we got Cruz / Simmons / Happ / Colome / Robles and then traded a surplus replacement level guy from a position of depth for a pitcher that has a pretty good chance of contributing. Oh ... and we claimed a guy with a shot at contributing. I would add there are guys scattered around pretty much every playoff team that were acquired while relatively unproven that went on to be very good players. Just take a look at Tampa or even the Dodgers.

Yes...... and last year we got....and the year before that.... but THIS day, the day of the post, the day of the comment.... I'm pretty sure we got Hamilton.

Some mild speculation that Bauer addition might trigger LA to unload some of their excess pitching.  Right now their rotation consists of Bauer, Kershaw, Buehler, Price, May, Urias, and Gonsolin.  Wow!!  Bauer, Kershaw, and Buehler would be unavailable. Price would most definitely be available but who wants the salary.  Doubtful they'd give up May, but Urias or Gonsolin should be available.

Looking over their current roster, with Justin Turner unsigned, the Dodgers lack a good offensive 3B.  The Maeda/Graterol trade worked out well for both clubs.  What about Sano for one of their excess starters?  At least its worth an email.

Price will likely be traded- maybe to the Yankees. Bauer is one guy I never cared for at all. He is a good pitcher who had a great year last season and has capitalized. However, I don't think he'll be nearly as good this year. Plus he seems to be a head case with his own beliefs and may run into difficulties with teammates and/or management. However, the Dodgers are definitely favorites to win it all.

I am pretty sure we got Cruz / Simmons / Happ / Colome / Robles and then traded a surplus replacement level guy from a position of depth for a pitcher that has a pretty good chance of contributing. Oh ... and we claimed a guy with a shot at contributing. I would add there are guys scattered around pretty much every playoff team that were acquired while relatively unproven that went on to be very good players. Just take a look at Tampa or even the Dodgers.

I would trade all of those guys for Bauer with zero thought required, which is probably about right money-wise for 2021.

Bauer’s total contract is also right in the same range in terms of total dollars as Donaldson ($10M difference, which is nothing over multiple seasons). I’d take 2 years of Bauer at $85 Million (he can opt out after 2 years) over 4 years of Donaldson for $92 (really 3 years because he was useless last year) without a thought as well. There isn’t a reasonable person on the planet that wouldn’t.

It’s a bit of a stretch to compare our roster construction methods to the Dodgers who have obtained arguably the best pitcher and position player in the game in the past 12 months. The Dodgers aren’t claiming guys off of waivers with the anticipation of them being a contributor. They just won the World Series. Nobody in the history of the world has lost more consecutive playoff games than we have, in any sport.

We’re not on the same planet as the Dodgers at this point. They play chess, we play checkers.

Price will likely be traded- maybe to the Yankees. Bauer is one guy I never cared for at all. He is a good pitcher who had a great year last season and has capitalized. However, I don't think he'll be nearly as good this year. Plus he seems to be a head case with his own beliefs and may run into difficulties with teammates and/or management. However, the Dodgers are definitely favorites to win it all.

“With his own beliefs”

Oh no! Not that, anything but that!

He’s one of the most heady, knowledgeable pitchers in the game. You disagreeing with his politics doesn’t make him a head case. Oh, and he just won the CY YOUNG.

What’s the difference between his throwing a ball over the centerfield wall (which was awesome) or a hitter beating up the water cooler in the dugout or slamming their bat into the ground after a strikeout (see Josh Donaldson, who I’m sure you love for his competitive fire).

Give me the fiery competitor over the milquetoast guy every day. And I don’t care about athletes opinions on politics.

“With his own beliefs”

Oh no! Not that, anything but that!

He’s one of the most heady, knowledgeable pitchers in the game. You disagreeing with his politics doesn’t make him a head case. Oh, and he just won the CY YOUNG.

What’s the difference between his throwing a ball over the centerfield wall (which was awesome) or a hitter beating up the water cooler in the dugout or slamming their bat into the ground after a strikeout (see Josh Donaldson, who I’m sure you love for his competitive fire).

Give me the fiery competitor over the milquetoast guy every day. And I don’t care about athletes opinions on politics.

I don't think it's politics that people usually are talking about when they talk about personality issues with Bauer.

Bauer has very interesting contract.  He gets huge money for two years, but can opt out after any season as well.  So with 102 over three years and 40 plus 45 for first two he will be down to only 17 for last year.  Unless he is injured no way will he be there for year three at 17 mil.  So really he signed a two year 85 mil deal, because I doubt any team next year will give him 45. He gets paid huge for two years and protects himself incase of injury for a third year, or get paid 17 mil in a potential bounce back if his injury is prior to that.  Good for him.  He will also be getting paid more than the entire Pirates team.  

What I find odd about this deal is that the Dodgers don't need Bauer. They already have six quality starters (including Price). Does adding Bauer make them better?

Almost certainly, yes. They'll be in an arms race (no pun intended) with Slam Diego all year and adding literally the best pitcher on the market should help them retain their throne.

Bauer’s total contract is also right in the same range in terms of total dollars as Donaldson ($10M difference, which is nothing over multiple seasons). I’d take 2 years of Bauer at $85 Million (he can opt out after 2 years) over 4 years of Donaldson for $92 (really 3 years because he was useless last year) without a thought as well. There isn’t a reasonable person on the planet that wouldn’t.

I guess I'm unreasonable. Bauer is being paid like he's Max Scherzer and he does not have that kind of track record of consistent success. He had an elite stretch during the pandemic that's out of line with his career totals. Expecting him to be at career highs in H/9, K/9, BB/9 at the same time he's near a career best in HR/9 again for an entire season seems unlikely. His H/9 wasn't just a career best it was far beyond anything he'd ever turned in and screams Small Sample Size. Again: I'd love to know what crystal ball knows for sure that you're gonna get 2020 Trevor Bauer for a full year, when the 2019 Cincy version (which was over almost the exact same number of games) was dreadful.

Donaldson has a consistent track record of success when he's on the field. His one bugaboo is injury and he got bit last year (still played almost half the season and was productive; 131 OPS+ shows he can still hit). Hardly useless.

The Dodgers can do this because their financial resources are such they can eat a $40M contract if he busts (it'll still hurt even them), but they are one of the few. But it's still a high-risk move.

Yes...... and last year we got....and the year before that.... but THIS day, the day of the post, the day of the comment.... I'm pretty sure we got Hamilton.

Well, on the day I’m making this post the Dodgers didn’t sign anyone. Cheapskates.

I would trade all of those guys for Bauer with zero thought required, which is probably about right money-wise for 2021.

Bauer’s total contract is also right in the same range in terms of total dollars as Donaldson ($10M difference, which is nothing over multiple seasons). I’d take 2 years of Bauer at $85 Million (he can opt out after 2 years) over 4 years of Donaldson for $92 (really 3 years because he was useless last year) without a thought as well. There isn’t a reasonable person on the planet that wouldn’t.

It’s a bit of a stretch to compare our roster construction methods to the Dodgers who have obtained arguably the best pitcher and position player in the game in the past 12 months. The Dodgers aren’t claiming guys off of waivers with the anticipation of them being a contributor. They just won the World Series. Nobody in the history of the world has lost more consecutive playoff games than we have, in any sport.

We’re not on the same planet as the Dodgers at this point. They play chess, we play checkers.

His contract would be roughly 30% of the Twins highest payroll in the history of the team. Can you site any team with below average revenue or any team for that matter that ever got to the WS with one player receiving 30% of the team's payroll? In the Twins case, Bauer and Donaldson would represent 45% of the payroll. I doubt any team has ever been constructed this way as I can't imagine anyone has ever held a GM job that does not understand the dysfunction of spending this percentage on a single player or two in this specific case.

There should be plenty of examples if your position has merit. Let's see them.

Bauer is a terrible investment. Can't wait to beat him in the world series.

Well, on the day I’m making this post the Dodgers didn’t sign anyone. Cheapskates.

No kidding! Downright abstemious. Frugal. Parsimonious. And Justin Turner still is unsigned!