No Garcia Trade: Braves Balk At Twins’ Prospect’s Health

  On 7/23/2017 at 1:03 PM, spycake said:

Only Happ among that group was traded in the previous offseason to have a similar basis of comparison as Garcia now. So you'd also have to consider how market factors may have been different in 2015 than in 2017. And Happ was performing worse than Garcia and the others too (82 ERA+), so the fact that his return was lower was not surprising.

And I think it was shown around here recently that the Leake trade wasn't a bad return. Duvall is a corner slugger type, but he has accumulated 5 bWAR and counting for 2016-2017. The other guy was the Giants #3 prospect per Sickels that year, B/B+ grade.

The prospects in the Kazmir trade were also reasonably well-considered at the time too. Nottingham was a catcher having a breakout season, and was even BP's #66 overall prospect that next offseason, and was eventually used by the A's to acquire Khris Davis.

Kazmir was considered a front of the rotation talent at the time. Leake at the time was the Reds number 2 starter. with a track record of durability .   The return was not that great for the level of talent.   Recent trades of non star pitchers at the deadline do not bring great returns.

That Garcia is having a better year than the last year does not improve his value  Garcia at this point last year had similar statistics to this year. before tailing off at the end of the year. Will Garcia tail off again in August and September again? There is only a guess with the recent evidence pointing the wrong way.

  On 7/23/2017 at 3:18 PM, kab21 said:

Let's call yours the optimistic take.

His velocity dropped after he pitched in relief and it plummeted in his last start. I have a feeling that something major is wrong. He still exists but I am not counting on him for anything this season. If he comes back then it is a bonus. I certainly wouldn't stop exploring pitching trades because he 'might' come back.

One should not stop exploring, nor should a team overpay. A 6-3 loss is the same as a 4-3 loss in the standings

  On 7/23/2017 at 3:53 PM, Brock Beauchamp said:

If they can't get a deal done for a starter at the deadline, they need to call up either Romero or Gonsalves.

 

Hell, that might be the right decision either way. It's not likely but it's possible that one of those guys could outperform someone like Jaime Garcia over ten-ish starts.

Tyler Duffy anyone?

Does anyone see a pattern developing here? I swear if i squint my eyes enough its old man Ryan making these deals instead of Falvey and Levine? The acquisitions.....Colon, Turley, Gee, Tepesch, Haley, probably others i'm not thinking of.

Junk, Junk, Junk, Junk, mediocre rental in Garcia which i do see value in.

What's the difference at the end of the day? None of these moves really had any hope of being a long term positive impact for a team trying to become competitive. What's worse is that this new Front office appears to be just as small market minded as the previous FO when the Twins are clearly closer to a mid market team and have the resources to go after Gray or other similar type players. Maybe now is not the right time, but that would clearly be a long term move that would improve the Twins.

While i understand the thought process behind going after Garcia in the short term, if that falls through why not promote Gonsalves, Romero or Jorge? Be willing to invest in your prospects through experience even if it costs you in the short term in wins.

Am I the only one here waiting for a mystery team to come in "steal away" Jaimie Garcia from the Twins? I feel we can do better than him. He still has an ERA over 5 in the last 30 days. Don't be fooled by a couple starts. He is nothing special that will push the Twins to the top of the AL Central.

No thanks. Burdi has upside and I like that better than 2months of an expensive blah starter.

Glad the trade did not happen.  IF we had brought up some of our other pitching prospects and given them opportunities, and htey failed, then we could move on a guy like Garcia to fill the obvious hole in the rotation.

So, lets follow this plan.  Bring up David Hurlbut and maybe even Gonsleves.  Then next offseason if we liek Garcia, lets sign him.

Garcia is below average.

Burdi has high end potential - 100 Mph.

Twins timing is not now. It's in 2019 - 2021.

Theo traded Samardzija & Hammel in 2014. Cubs won World Series in 2016.

Theo has traded prospects in 2016 & 2017 because the timing is now for them.

  On 7/23/2017 at 5:37 PM, spycake said:

I never said Garcia would get a "great return" -- just that it was incorrect to take his return from last winter and divide by two.

And actually the fact that Garcia faded late last year is probably encouraging, given his results in 2017 -- 2016 was his first full year in awhile. Consistent struggles would have suggested he was a worse pitcher. He is probably better positioned now to stay effective later into this season.

Travis Harrison, Niko Goodrum and Pat Light would be about right

Garcia faded in 2011, the only other season he pitched a full year

  On 7/23/2017 at 12:46 PM, USAFChief said:

yeah, stash on the 60 day, but I forget the rule...doesn't such a case still need X number of days on the 25 man to become the claiming team's property?

Yes, and the Braves have done that 3 or 4 times recently, so it'd be an ideal thing to do with Burdi, to be honest.

Besides Berrios who were the pitching prospects in the Twins in the past ten years?

Starters: Gonsalves, Romano, Thorpe, Stewart, Jorge plus others.

Relievers: Reed, Curtis, Burdi, Rosario plus others

Players start their peak years after a few years of MLB experience. Kepler, Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Gordon, and others will be better in two years. 

In two years, the Twins can replace the Mauer contract with a top free agent ace pitcher.

Look at the number of top end prospects and very young players on the Twins.

You have to look out 2-3 years or you will repeat the same mistakes over and over again.

You are kidding yourself if you think the Twins are even close to the Astros level in 2017.

  On 7/23/2017 at 3:53 PM, Brock Beauchamp said:

If they can't get a deal done for a starter at the deadline, they need to call up either Romero or Gonsalves.

 

Hell, that might be the right decision either way. It's not likely but it's possible that one of those guys could outperform someone like Jaime Garcia over ten-ish starts.

I am a believer, although I prefer to think that they will outperform Garcia over the next two years.  

  On 7/24/2017 at 12:14 AM, nicksaviking said:

But trading for Jaime Garcia isn't aggressive, he's not a very good pitcher. He would be more half measures; I'm so tired of these kinds of putzy moves which are more PR than substance.

If they aren't going to make serious moves to contend this year, I don't want them to trade for a pig, put makeup on it and try to sell that as an honest to goodness attempt to win.

Some of the ballplayers added during this better find a makeup artist.

  On 7/24/2017 at 12:00 AM, ashburyjohn said:

You're proposing a three-way trade involving Seattle?

Ha I forgot all about pat light already. How nice would it be to have Fernando abad in our bullpen right about now?

  On 7/24/2017 at 1:25 AM, drjim said:

Isn't that Chiefs point?

I personally think half measures are fine this year. Contra this post, I would find Garcia to be of some substance, and would like a couple of relievers in the same mold. Not sure what pr it actually brings, but I think there is value in propping up a young team and trying to compete until the end of the season.

Yes, this isn't an aggressive sell the farm year but that doesn't mean that they should continue to run Colon or similarly awful pitchers out there every 5th day. And then there is Gibson every 4th day. Is he decent now? I don't know but I would feel a lot more comfortable with him in the 5th spot.

  Quote

Quoting Brock's earlier post about Gonsalves/Romero

 

Gonsalves or Jorge might be an option but Romero has to be getting shut down soon (or shifted to the bullpen. He isn't an option to pitch into September imo.