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  • Moving Dozier Needs to Include Creativity


    Jeremy Nygaard

    Happy New Years!

    It may be the first you've heard of it, but it sounds like the Twins and Dodgers have been having trade discussions that revolve around All-Star 2B Brian Dozier.

    Oh, you have heard it?

    Of course you have. It's been an ongoing national talker and there's been no shortage of articles to read on the topic right here on this site.

    Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

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    While no one knows how close we are to getting (or not getting) to a resolution in these trade talks, you can put me squarely in the camp that believes the Twins shouldn't move Dozier unless they're blown away.

    Sorry guys, trading Dozier for Jose De Leon in a 1-for-1 swap isn't blowing the Twins away. And trading Dozier for De Leon and Brock Stewart also isn't enough, in my opinion, to pull the trigger.

    So what's going to give?

    Did you hear? The 9th edition of the Twins Prospect Handbook is coming out on Wednesday. If you plug the code FWD15 in at checkout, you'll get 15% off. Want to buy a few? Get 20% off five or more books with the code SPACE20.

    Get Another Prospect or Two

    The Dodgers reportedly are holding steadfast in that they won't budge from not including other highly-regarded prospects like Yadier Alvarez or Cody Bellinger. But they've shown a "willingness" to include De Leon. A package that includes De Leon and Stewart is a good start. So who else could they look to include?

    Willie Calhoun - Calhoun is fashioned as a power-hitting left-handed-hitting second baseman. That might cause you to raise a red flag because that's ultimately Jorge Polanco's home. No problem, though, because Calhoun isn't going to stick at second base. His future is likely in left field, where he'd be limited by his lack of speed and arm, only because a 5' 6" first baseman isn't realistic. I wouldn't love Calhoun to be included, but his bat is an asset and assets are what the Twins need to close the deal.

    Jordan Sheffield - Getting another arm would be wise and Sheffield has a pretty powerful one (which includes a remade UCL). The Twins liked Sheffield - but didn't love him - coming out of Vanderbilt and there are questions about whether he profiles as a starter or not. But guys that can hit 98 don't just fall off trees and getting him as a third piece wouldn't be a terrible thing.

    Trevor Oaks - Oaks profiles as a groundball pitcher who could be a back end starter/middle relief option. There's nothing sexy about him but adding a (good) Nick Blackburn-type would be an acceptable third piece.

    Lottery Tickets - The Dodgers have been very active in international free agency the past few years and maybe the Twins could pry away either Ronny Brito, SS or Starling Heredia, OF. Just 17 and neither having made their US debut yet, both prospects have high ceilings but a long way to go. Brito is a defensive wizard who has questions about his bat. Heredia is a big-bodied power hitter who will end up in a corner.

    It might go without saying, though, that if the Dodgers were willing to include any of these guys and the Twins were willing to seal the deal with the inclusion of any of these guy that the deal would already be done.

    So now let's get more creative.

    International Spending Money - The new CBA revamps how and what teams can spend. Hard caps. Pools are much more even.

    For example, the Twins, despite having the #1 overall pick in the draft, get no advantage in the international free agent (IFA) market for being the worst team. Because they receive revenue sharing, they will receive a competitive balance pick and extra IFA money. Every team will have a pool of at least a minimum of $4.75 million. The Twins, who get an extra pick after the first round, will have a pool of $5.25 million. There are eight teams who have pools of $5.75 million. The Dodgers fit in the group that has $4.75 million to spend.

    So where am I going with this?

    The Dodgers are still stuck with the penalties of going over their spending limit in 2015. They can't sign any player for more than $300,000. Maybe they could send some money to the Twins? The Twins could add up to $3,937,500 to their pool. The Dodgers love to spend money, so maybe they'll just spend it all on $300,000 guys... or maybe they could cough up $1.75 million to the Twins, who would then have $7 million and the ability to throw their weight around in that market as the team with the most money. Rules prohibit pool money from being traded until the market opens on July 2, so it would have to called "future considerations."

    Take On Bad Money - The Dodgers will always flirt with the luxury tax threshold. With only 13 players under contract for 2017, they are already at $200 million in commitments. They have eight arbitration-eligible players who are projected to get around $16 million. If the four players who fill out the roster all make the minimum, they're looking at a payroll that is nearly $220 million.

    The way the CBA reads, the Dodgers would face a 50% penalty on the overage (the limit is $195 million for the upcoming season) which would cost them $12.5 million. In addition to that, they'd be forced to pay an additional 12% on any dollar over $215 million, which is another $600,000. And that's assuming the Dodgers payroll is only $220 million. It will likely be greater. At $240 million? More penalties. It could almost get to the point where the Dodgers are forced to pay $2 for every $1 they spend over $195 million.

    So a team, like the Twins, could take on $10 million dollars and save the Dodgers $20 million. You know what could encourage a team to take on money? More prospects.

    How could the Twins take on money, you ask?

    Brandon McCarthy - McCarthy has two years at $10 million each left on his contract plus a team option. McCarthy has only made 13 starts in the last two seasons due to having Tommy John surgery. He's only 33 and not too far removed from being a pretty good pitcher.

    Erisbel Arruebarrena - The Cuban shortstop is a defensive wizard but has been suspended for much of the last two seasons. He's owed $9 million over the next two years. I'm not interested in adding the player - mostly cause I don't know what his issues are - but I'd take on his money to add another prospect (like Sheffield). The Dodgers, in turn, would save up to nearly $18 million of dead-weight.

    Yaisel Sierra - Another Cuban, the right-handed pitcher has been a huge disappointment after signing a six-year, $30 million contract in February. He only lasted on the 40-man until the beginning of July and struggled at both high-A and AA. He's still on the hook for five years and $23 million. But he could still prove to be a serviceable arm. While that money is an albatross for the Dodgers - and costing them nearly $50 million - it could be worth taking on for the Twins... if the Dodgers are willing to throw more in.

    Of course, this is all based on the assumption that the Dodgers care about wasting money (and they might not).

    Brian Dozier (who's owed $6 million and $9 million for the next two years) for Jose De Leon, Brock Stewart, the contracts of McCarthy or Sierra and Arruebarrena (who are owed $6.5 million and $8.5 million the next two years), Calhoun and/or Sheffield and some IFA money in July would be a creative way to get a deal done.

    Is it enough? Is it fair?

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    But Alvarez us still an A ball prosect despite potential.

     

    That's right. Until he plays long seasons at A and above, we won't know if he can keep fireballing as a starter over the course of a full season. It's very likely that he can't and ends up in the bullpen unless he proves to be effective with less velocity on his fastball. 

    Edited by Doomtints
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    Great subject Jeremy.

    Puig seems to be on the outs, I wonder if some salary relief could be a part of the trade, possibly w/ a third team

    IDK with the problems they had vs LHP last year, trading Puig to get Dozier doesn't really solve the problem, just sort of shifts it from 2nd to the OF.

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    Yeah that's the whole thing, Alvarez is still a real long ways from being a cant miss prospect.

    Just like Kohl Stewart was when we drafted him for instance...

    Alvarez dominated in low A and Rookie. Stewart was very good at the same levels, but not amazing. That combined with Alvarez's better raw stuff, makes a big difference in their respective values at that point. 

     

    Alvarez in low A and R: 12.3 K/9, 3.2BB/9, 0.15 HR/9, 2.12 ERA, 1.03 WHIP.

    Stewart in low A and R: 7.2 K/9, 2.4BB/9, 0.34 HR/9, 2.35 ERA, 1.08 WHIP

     

    Also, like Stewart, Alvarez induces a lot of ground balls. He is the rare pitcher who seems to have both very good strikeout pitches and induce a lot of ground balls. That's an incredibly powerful combo if it continues as he progresses to higher levels.

     

    All that being said, of course Alvarez still has a ton of risk, but Alvarez is a more valuable prospect after his first year than Stewart was.

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    JDL is a fine prosect. So might be Alvarez. But Alvarez us still an A ball prosect despite potential. Would you feel Berries and Romeo would be enough to acquire one if the top 2B in the game if the shoe was on the other foot and it was the Twins needing a player to put them over the top? (Closest approximation I can come up with)

     

    I doubt JDL and Alvarez are at the same level as Berrios and Romero. Romero has had success a couple levels higher than Alvarez. And Berrios is both younger than JDL and doesn't have the arm/shoulder concerns.

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    Twins get JDL, Alvarez, Verdugo, Puig, Kazmir

    Dodgers get Dozier, Eddie Rosario

     

    Get your forks ready, because that's a deal that gets done!

     

    I'd make that deal in a heartbeat. I don't think the Dodgers would even consider it. If Falvey/Levine could pull that off, they'd be the real deal.

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    I doubt JDL and Alvarez are at the same level as Berrios and Romero. Romero has had success a couple levels higher than Alvarez. And Berrios is both younger than JDL and doesn't have the arm/shoulder concerns.

     

    I think that is probably a really fair comparison, to be honest. Just my opinion.

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    Yeah that's the whole thing, Alvarez is still a real long ways from being a cant miss prospect.

    Just like Kohl Stewart was when we drafted him for instance...

     

    You're never going to find a "can't miss" pitching prospect. 

     

    Alvarez would definitely come with more risk than JDL, but he also comes with a Jose Fernandez-type ceiling. And those are risks that are worth taking.

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    I have often wondered what the dollar value of a prospect is. 

     

    If Boston wanted to buy Tyler Jay from the Twins for example. How big a check should the Red Sox write. 

     

    I love creativity and I hope the discussions are considering all of this and more. 

     

    I also wouldn't mind some 3 or 4 team deal creativity either. 

     

    The Diamondbacks traded Bronson Arroyo, who was recovering from TJ, and Touki Toussaint for a no-name prospect. Essentially, the bought Toussaint for the $10.1 million remaining on Arroyo's contract. Arroyo never pitched for them.

     

     

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    My understanding is that the Twin's really want Bellinger along with Deleon as the main pieces. Want to get creative... send Kirilloff as part of the deal as they get a very good guy that is a few years away.....

     

    Deleon, Bellinger, Kasmir, Arruebarrena - Yaisel Sierra

     

    for

     

    Dozier, Kiriloff, Gibson

     

    We get 2 ready made prospects, 2 wildcards, and an old fart that can maybe help us. They get their man at 2nd, Gibson may be salvageable with them and Kiriloff who down the road may be a great get for them. Win/Win.

     

    In order to get this done the guys may need to think out of the box....

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    I'd make that deal in a heartbeat. I don't think the Dodgers would even consider it. If Falvey/Levine could pull that off, they'd be the real deal.

     

    Twins get JDL, Alvarez, Verdugo, Puig, Kazmir

    Dodgers get Dozier, Eddie Rosario

     

    Get your forks ready, because that's a deal that gets done!

     

    I like your thinking but may need to be adjusted as Dodgers won't do that one....

     

    JDL, Alverez, Puig, Kazmir

    for

    Dozier, Kiriloff, Gibson, Burdi

     

    That may be closer....

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    Are we pretending Gibson has actual value in a trade to a team like the Dodgers (or any team, really)?

     

    "Pretending" or wishing? And Burdi has his own set of ???s. Not sure the Dodgers would bite on this deal- even if the Twins substituted Berrios or Santana for Gibson

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    As much as I hate to admit it, this is a pretty good analysis:  http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/12/30/14111094/brian-dozier-twins-mlb-trade-rumors-hot-stove-dodgers-dbacks-second-baseman

     

    The Twins' problems are (1) 2nd basemen is such a strong position right now with many good options, and (2) most of the teams that might otherwise want Dozier don't for various reasons (rebuilding or have a quality set option because of (1)). 

     

    My position continues to be to hope for the best that DaveW is right and we get De Leon, Alvarez and a third lottery ticket, but we can't assume that is legit, so failing that, Twins should draw the line at De Leon, and someone like Verdugo, Diaz or Buehler.  I might consider Sheffield as a second piece if the third piece is a good lottery ticket (18, 19 yo with some upside but long ways off). I'm not interested in Stewart as a second piece (unless someone like Lux or Will Smith is a third piece, which seems very unlikely). Also not interested in Calhoun, unless he's a third piece with someone like Sheffield or Stewart. Failing one of these deals, If I were Falvey/Levine, I'd say "no."

    Edited by nytwinsfan
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    yeah, I don't see why the Dodgers would want Gibson. He's a good option for a rebound year, but not a guy a contending team wants to roll the dice with. They might have interest in Santana. If LA was willing to accept De Leon and Stewart as the main pieces for Dozier, picking up Santana and sending two more that way, it may work. 

     

    Just spitballing.... haven't looked at FV or anything like that.

     

    Dozer, Santana, perhaps a bullpen arm as well.

     

    De Leon, Alvarez, Stewart, Verdugo, and Ruiz.  Perhaps in this scenario we have to take Kazmir's contract... not sure. I've got to think there's a way to make this work.

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    yeah, I don't see why the Dodgers would want Gibson. He's a good option for a rebound year, but not a guy a contending team wants to roll the dice with. They might have interest in Santana. If LA was willing to accept De Leon and Stewart as the main pieces for Dozier, picking up Santana and sending two more that way, it may work. 

     

    I agree. Now if we're talking about a team like the Pirates, the inexpensive Gibson who has bounceback potential might be of extreme curiosity to them. Team's like the Dodgers tend to value a more certain commodity as price is of less consequence.

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    As much as I hate to admit it, this is a pretty good analysis:  http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/12/30/14111094/brian-dozier-twins-mlb-trade-rumors-hot-stove-dodgers-dbacks-second-baseman

     

    The Twins' problems are (1) 2nd basemen is such a strong position right now with many good options, and (2) most of the teams that might otherwise want Dozier don't for various reasons (rebuilding or have a quality set option because of (1)). 

     

    My position continues to be to hope for the best that DaveW is right and we get De Leon, Alvarez and a third lottery ticket, but we can't assume that is legit, so failing that, Twins should draw the line at De Leon, and someone like Verdugo, Diaz or Buehler.  I might consider Sheffield as a second piece if the third piece is a good lottery ticket (18, 19 yo with some upside but long ways off). I'm not interested in Stewart as a second piece (unless someone like Lux or Will Smith is a third piece, which seems very unlikely). Also not interested in Calhoun, unless he's a third piece with someone like Sheffield or Stewart. Failing one of these deals, If I were Falvey/Levine, I'd say "no."

     

    It's a good article and I believe that is exactly what Friedman is thinking. 

     

    However... I think Friedman will find that those plan B options are not as available as they think they are. Therefore the Dodgers are in the same type of boat as the Twins. 

     

    If they can't bring Dozier in... The next option is just as expensive in terms of prospects... or more expensive in terms of contract or... quite a drop off in terms of talent. 

     

    If they want RH Power to fill that gaping hole at 2B. Go down the list and watch the options go away one by one. 

     

    The 2B market is soft for the seller and the buyer in my opinion. There is pressure on Falvey/Lavine to make a good first trade with their only decent trade chip but there is also pressure on the Dodgers to win and if they don't win and Dozier clubs 35 home runs in another uniform in 2017 it will be a mistake that will be pointed out. 

     

    Stay Strong Falvey/Lavine!!! The Twins don't have to settle... Make the Dodgers Settle.  

     

     

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    Also when it comes to Gibson it's probably just time to accept the facts:

     

    He is a #5 type moving forward. Counting on him for anything more than 4.50 type ERA is wishful thinking.

    Edited by DaveW
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    I'm psyched 

     

    If We end up Keeping Brian Dozier going into the 2017 season.

     

    He will lead us and our rebuild into greater things, Brighter days ahead.

     

    Brian Dozier is absolutely worth 3 to 4 quality players in a trade, we don't get that Screw L.A.

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    Without knowing what the Dodgers pen is like. How bout something like this. Dozier, Kintzler, and either Rogers or one of our reliever prospects, for DeLeon, Alvarez,bad contract, and some international cap money.

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    Without knowing what the Dodgers pen is like. How bout something like this. Dozier, Kintzler, and either Rogers or one of our reliever prospects, for DeLeon, Alvarez,bad contract, and some international cap money.

    Strikes me as an unnecessary inclusion of relievers by the Twins.

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