Mock Draft v. 2.0

This year, you can't find a consensus top pick or a consensus top three. I reached out to a number of scouts for feedback on this mock and/or other things that are being talked about in the industry:

"I have no clue."

"I honestly have no idea."

"Anything could happen."

I'll share some of things that I'm hearing right now on Gleeman and the Geek, but some of the big things that seem destined to happen: Teams with big pools will cut deals with prep pitchers to drop to their second pick. College arms are making a late surge. After the top guys, college bats are bad... but teams might also reach for a bat just to get one they consider to be quality. (And guys that have had big days recently or have big days leading up to the draft will make themselves some money.)

There's still a lot to consider. And still a lot of time left for things to sort themselves out.

Here’s my second-to-last mock draft.

1. Phillies - A.J. Puk, LHP, Florida. The Phillies could easily - and maybe should - open up the pick and take the player that allows them to bank a bunch of money, but as it stands, Puk is the best way to go when you balance risk/reward. There are still other names in play, including Nick Senzel, who I’ve been told has been watched heavily by the Phillies though being represented by Scott Boras lessens the chances he agrees to an underslot deal.

2. Reds - Kyle Lewis, OF, Mercer. The Reds are also in a great position to bank dollars. Expect them to draft the top bat available and cut a deal to draft a high school pitcher at #35.

3. Braves - Corey Ray, OF, Louisville. Like the teams above them, the Braves have dollar flexibility too. The Braves have a few more picks (#40, #44, #76) on the first day too that they can get creative with.

4. Rockies - Jason Groome, LHP, New Jersey prep. There’s been ton of Moniak talk, but it’s hard for the Rockies to pass on pitchers… since nobody wants to pitch at Coors. I’ve been told Groome is the wild card of this draft and to not be surprised if takes an Appel-like tumble.

5. Brewers - Delvin Perez, SS, Puerto Rico prep. This has long been a connection, though there are others that have moved into the picture.

6. A’s - Nick Senzel, 3B, Tennessee. Whichever of the top five (and also Moniak) could go here.

7. Marlins - Mickey Moniak, OF, California prep. Moniak going higher than this could help a team bank some money for a later pick.

8. Padres - Cal Quantrill, RHP, Stanford. Lots of talk that Quantrill has a deal with Padres at #24. That doesn’t make sense to me. Draft Quantrill at #8 and take one of the high price tag guys at #24. Regardless, Padres are going to leave the draft with two or three top talents.

9. Tigers - Riley Pint, RHP, Kansas prep. Pint can’t drop forever and the Tigers would be wise to take this big arm.

10. White Sox - Blake Rutherford, OF, California prep.

11. Mariners - Zack Collins, C, Miami

12. Red Sox - Zack Burdi, RHP, Louisville. I don’t love this pick here, but when I was trying to piece my mock together, one scout told me this pick made “perfect sense.”

13. Rays - Dakota Hudson, RHP, Mississippi State. Could have the best stuff of any college arm, but has command issues.

14. Indians - Alex Kirilloff, OF, Pennsylvania prep.

15. Twins - Justin Dunn, RHP, Boston College. If either of Hudson or Kirilloff made it here, I think they’d be the guys. I also think the Twins could jump on Quantrill if he made it this far. The other arms connected to the team - Braxton Garrett, Matt Manning, etc - could all find themselves sliding (on purpose) to the teams who have banked money. Dunn offers the highest upside of the college arms available.

16. Angels - Taylor Trammell, OF, Georgia prep.

17. Astros - Cody Sedlock, RHP, Illinois.

18. Yankees - Will Craig, 3B, Wake Forest.

19. Mets - Matt Thaiss, C, Virginia.

20. Dodgers - Jordan Sheffield, RHP, Vanderbilt.

21. Blue Jays - Kevin Gowdy, RHP, California prep.

22. Pirates - Nolan Jones, SS, Pennsylvania prep.

23. Cardinals - Kyle Muller, LHP, Texas prep.

24. Padres - Matt Manning, RHP, California prep. I’ve long been of the belief that Manning’s floor was the Twins. Saturday I was told what other national guys have been saying, he’s got a high price tag, one that is higher than the Twins slot can get done. The Padres, however, have saved some money that they can spend on Manning.

25. Padres - Chris Okey, C, Clemson. For the Padres to fit Manning in their budget, they might have to cut an underslot deal here too. I went with Okey because, you know, catchers.

26. White Sox - Gavin Lux, SS, Wisconsin prep.

27. Orioles - Eric Lauer, LHP, Kent State.

28. Nationals - Robert Tyler, RHP, Georgia.

29. Nationals - Alec Hansen, RHP, Oklahoma.

30. Rangers - Josh Lowe, 3B, Georgia prep.

31. Mets - T.J. Zeuch, RHP, Pittsburgh

32. Dodgers - Joey Wentz, LHP, Kansas HS. Wentz would have to come in overslot, which could be difficult, but this gives the Dodgers the best opportunity to add a high-ceiling arm… that they can trade later.

33. Cardinals - Buddy Reed, OF, Florida.

34. Cardinals - Logan Shore, RHP, Florida. Shore continues to strike me as someone that the Cardinals will draft.

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Bonus picks

35. Reds - Forrest Whitley, RHP, Texas prep. Whitley should be on the Twins radar, but he could be guaranteed an excess of $3 million by the Reds here.

40. Braves - Ian Anderson, RHP, New York prep. Braves have been rumored to be working on a “package” deal: bat at #3 and arm here.

42. Phillies - Braxton Garrett, LHP, Alabama prep. Garrett could go Top 10, but if the Phillies play their cards correctly, the could split their $10.5 million allotted to their top 2 picks and pay one $6 million and another $4.5 million (which is more than slot at #5).

What do you think?