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There is some feeling around the league that this year’s draft sees an unprecedented number of pre-draft deals. But that’s something I hear every year. Some teams - like the Astros - have gotten really good at playing the draft. You don’t think Daz Cameron dropped to them at 37 by pure happenstance do you? They had it worked out before. They offered him $4 million and he (and his advisor) knew that if he went to anyone else in the first round, that he wasn’t getting $4 million. So they threw out an absurd demand and no one touched him.
Expect more of the same this year with the Phillies, Reds, Braves and Padres in a great position to throw their weight around. What those teams, and possibly a couple of others, can do is offer money to players expected to go in the mid- to late-teens that they wouldn’t get if they went in the mid- to late-teens. History suggests the most volatile group of draft-eligible players are high school pitchers, so it’s likely we see some of those guys drop.
Here’s my first shot at a mock draft:
- PHILLIES - Jason Groome, LHP, New Jersey HS. Groome’s stock took a slight hit when he was ruled ineligible after transferring back home from IMG Academy in Florida. For now, I have Groome as the guy taking the Phillies offer of $6 million and banking another $3 million. My gut tells me that by the time the draft rolls around, it’s going to be Kyle Lewis hearing his name called first and the Phillies spending their savings on a high school pitcher at 42. (NOTE: Jayson Stark tweeted yesterday afternoon that there are rumblings that the Phillies may be turning their attention to Kyle Lewis. Since I had already completed my mock, I didn’t think I should change it.)
- REDS - Kyle Lewis, OF, Mercer. I don’t have any doubt that the Reds would take Lewis at this point if he’s available. But sometimes arms stare you in the face and you can’t pass on them. The Reds have picks 35 and 43 as well, so they’ll have an opportunity to cut a deal and replenish their system.
- BRAVES - Riley Pint, RHP, Kansas HS. I don’t love this pick for the Braves, but they’ve been stockpiling arms over the last couple of years and Pint would add another dynamic arm to the system.
- ROCKIES - A.J. Puk, LHP, Florida. Puk could be the first name off the board, but if teams are looking to make deals, all bets are off.
- BREWERS - Dakota Hudson, RHP, Mississippi State. The Brewers have had some very strong drafts in the last few years and add the best arm available to kick off their picks this year.
- A’S - Mickey Moniak, OF, California HS. There’s been some steam that there could be a deal here. I’d be surprised if there was one in place already, but it makes sense.
- MARLINS - Delvin Perez, SS, Puerto Rico HS. Unfairly compared to Carlos Correa, Perez was one of the first players I heard about as a first-rounder in this draft (probably about 16 months ago). The Marlins, who should have taken Carlos Rodon instead of Tyler Kolek for various reasons, have plenty of reasons to make Perez their guy.
- PADRES - Matt Manning, RHP, California HS. Whoever goes here, he will be the first of three solid picks. Look for the Padres to skim here to assure getting three really good players in the first round.
- TIGERS - Scott Senzel, 3B, Tennessee. Not a perfect fit, but the Tigers lineup isn’t getting any younger.
- WHITE SOX - Corey Ray, OF, Louisville. This would fit their recent trend of drafting more developed players.
- MARINERS - Zack Collins, C, Miami. Nothing more than a hunch really. (And hoping he’ll be gone before the Twins have a chance to draft a future first baseman.)
- RED SOX - Blake Rutherford, OF, California HS. Though the Red Sox have an abundance of outfield depth, Rutherford provides value as the best player available.
- RAYS - Braxton Garrett, LHP, Alabama HS. A Vandy commit with Boras as his rep, Garrett could be a player who drops due to signability (to a team that makes extra room). For now I have him going here. If the Twins have a shot at him - and believe they can sign him - they would pull the trigger.
- INDIANS - Josh Lowe, 3B, Georgia HS. Lowe would look great in the Twins system, but the Indians have taken a number of players that I’ve had that same feeling about it. So I project they’ll do the same.
- TWINS - Forrest Whitley, RHP, Texas HS. There were no up-the-middle prospects worth taking at fifteen, so it mostly came down to high-ceiling prep pitchers. The Twins had always been known for taking safe college arms, but with the exception of Kyle Gibson, that strategy hasn’t really panned out. The prep pitchers, however, have made some progress, led by the filthiness of Jose Berrios, the emergence of Stephen Gonsalves and the rejuvenation of Kohl Stewart. (I don’t think the Twins would “do-over” the Tyler Jay pick, but I think they got caught up in their own success and took a player who had the potential to make a big impact.) Whitley is a big-bodied prep with room to grow and has the ceiling to be an impactful front-of-the-rotation starter.
One name that I wouldn’t sleep on here is Zack Burdi. It has nothing to do with big brother Nick. There’s some belief that Zack has the tools to make the transition into a successful starter with a fastball/slider/changeup mix. The Twins have made that transition successfully with Tyler Duffey and have recently been adding power arms as well. Little Burdi fits the mold.
There are some names that probably should be included, but are not. For example, Ian Anderson, Matt Manning and Alex Kirilloff are all legitimate Top 15 talents. But as I mentioned in the intro, teams are going to have money to throw around. If I were to continue this particular mock, I would have Manning dropping to the Padres at 24, Anderson dropping to the Reds at 35 and Kirilloff sliding to the Phillies at 42. Each of these three players would be in line to make significantly more than if they were drafted by the Twins at 15 (or another team in that vicinity.)
There’s still a lot of time for things to change and even the most plugged-in people in the country would tell you - at this point - it’s a crapshoot.
Hope you enjoyed, fire away!
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