MLB's Youth Movement

The Twins are in the middle here - look at the pitching staff and we are old, look on the field and we are young.  But then the Twins are seldom in line with the rest of the league.  What I am waiting to see is when we reach the point where teams learn to stop giving long term high price contracts to players who have passed their prime.  I look at the angels paying for what Pujols did with the Cards because they were smart enough to know that he was only going to go downhill.  The Cards made the right decision, but I am looking at these contracts that are out there now and it makes no sense in light of what these charts show.

"One could assume this was due largely to players’ careers being extended artificially by PEDs. Or one could also possibly assume teams were selecting older players in the amateur draft or perhaps being more deliberate with their prospects"
Or MUCH more likely, many more players were playing COLLEGE BASEBALL, because of its increasing popularity,instead of signing out of HS.

If an increased emphasis on signing college players (which is what "selecting older players in the amateur draft" means ) was the major factor driving the average age up, then the now declining age trend would mean that the opposite is occurring - and it isn't.

The reasoning behind the age drop for position players is simple. Players are demanding ridiculous contracts when they are past their prime. Teams aren't necessarily trying to build from within, as suggested by another user. Teams are simply finding that they can find players at league minimum, who can do the same job as players demanding $100-$200 million dollar contracts. It's insane what these players are askinh for now. Pitching is different, much harder to come by. Experience and age of pitchers tends to be more omitting. Age also proves durability. But, when it comes to position players, youth has the edge because it's cheaper, and gets the job done for more value.

I suspect this trend reflects the fact that it's not just teams like the Twins and Royals who are emphasizing building their teams through player development anymore. For a long time, small and mid market teams focused on development, while the large market teams traded away their prospects for older established players and signed even more established players as free agents. Now, even those large market teams are seeing the wisdom of developing most of their roster from within and not being nearly as anxious to trade away their prospects.

 

The result is, as pointed out, a squeezing out of the middle class of players. GMs figured out that they can usually get production from a rookie 2B they pay $500,000 to that's not too dissimilar from the experienced, but not All-Star level, veteran that might command $2-3 million through arbitration or free agency.

Agreed. With players back to having normal peaks of performance followed by a normal decline instead of more extended plateaus - front offices realize the return on investment now more quickly diminishes for later contracts. A model to better balance the return based on the declining age trend would be to shorten the amount of years teams control players, allowing them to reach free agency a year, if not two, sooner, so the second contracts are given earlier and expire earlier but contain more true worth. 

PED's have a lot to do with the older trend.  Players now fall off shortly over 30.  Only superstars now can last into their mid to late 30's.  Plus system is rigged as commented above to playing a good share of players less in years 1-4 against what they can make later. 

Because of this I expect a new CBA to be very difficult to do.

One thing for sure:  the young players are playing a lot more baseball at a young age than in the '70s,'80s and 90s.

Every level of baseball, youth leagues, development leagues, extended Spring training, -- in the US, in Latin America, in Asia.  Kids are coming to Professional Baseball having so many more games under their belt.

Video, coaching, weight lifting, endless training, year around camps -- the real issue, IMO, is that single sport athletes are focusing in and developing skills in young people, quicker -- there is a tremendous incentive to get really good, really young. 

There are millions of dollars on the table if you can be really good at a young age, the market is driving this on several levels.

Another potential issue that drives the age towards younger players is the travel schedule.  Years ago it was that every get away game was an afternoon game.  The lack of afternoon getaway games poses additional and very significant demands on sleeping schedules.  For example, any team playing a night games followed by a 3 hour flight would expect to get to their hotels at 4 or 5 in the morning.  The older you get, the more brutal this schedule becomes.  This couples with the elimination of certain stimulants also gives an advantage to younger players.

Buxton, Buxton BUXTON!

The average age trending downwards could me multifactorial.

Better and faster pitching  leads to average age going down.

Better metrics would lead teams to identify poor developing and or over the hill players quicker.

To say the age is up because of the popularity of college would say that going to college stunts development significantly. Remember the graphs are for MLB players not MLB and MiLB players. Similarly for international players signed at 16 might not develop as quickly

I agree that there is a willingness to go with younger players due to cost. PED testing is a factor in the age trending downward but that doesn't explain the dip below 1979. A lack of MLB expansion will also drive average age downward. Expansion tends to help extend careers.

Some additional information...

The Lahman database has a list of years players attended colleges. Using the same players from aging trends data, here is a breakdown of the years of college for the non-pitching starters by year:

Makes me think of the way that the minor league system used to be run a long time ago (I don't exactly when it changed, off hand); older famous players and popular players who were AAAA types would continue playing past their prime for the entertainment value it provided the minor league cities. In other words, at one time minor league teams weren't merely feeder systems to the big leagues.

"The Battered Bastards of Baseball" is my favorite baseball movie and is one answer to your question. Documentary on the Portland Mavericks, a team founded by Bing Russell when the Pacific Coast League left Portland in 1973. Players who had been rejected or never given a chance (including Jim Bouton) joined a team that managed to beat the bonus babies. Very entertaining, and something to do while waiting for the Twins to make another move.