MLB Draft Preview: Final Mock

I'm a bit of a cheater, and plan on doing one a couple of hours before the draft, but it will probably be no significant change.

So you're thinking the Twins like Tucker more than Cameron at this point?  Is Cameron just not as signable?  Perhaps you could give what you see as the Twins board, top 7 or 8?

Thanks for all your analysis Jeremy, it's been fun to read.

I think Cameron is signable for the Twins but it will definitely mean that they can't go overslot in rds 2-4 and likely mean that they need to consider underslot picks at one or more picks in rds 2-10.  That's a stiff price to pay.  I like the interesting possibility of the Astros banking enough money to draft Cameron later.  Intriguing but I think he will get picked.  It is hard for a prospect to sit out a year and re-enter in what is likely a stronger class.

Tucker would be a great pick. Bregman is a good player, but not what I'm looking for with the #6 pick. Questioning if the top pitchers can stay in the rotation before their careers even start is concerning too. I don't view Cameron as a talent that is good enough to affect the draft strategy for the rest of the rounds because of his price tag.

Jeremy,

What are your thoughts on Clark? Haven't heard too much about him.

I think the Twins do what the White Sox did.  Sign everyone else and then negotiate with Cameron.  He's not going to college.  The Twins will offer him a bit more than slot.  He'll sign.

Rodon got 700K more than slot though.  The White Sox had to pick at least one underslot player in the rest of the draft. 

Rodon got 700K more than slot though.  The White Sox had to pick at least one underslot player in the rest of the draft. 

The White Sox went to the max they could on Rodon without having to give up a pick in the 2015 draft.

Current draft rules establish an overall signing budget for each team, based on the combined pick values for all of its selections in the first 10 rounds. Teams that exceed the budget pay a 75 percent tax on the overage, and if they go more than 5 percent over budget they lose a first-round pick in the next draft.

In three drafts under the new rules (this year is the third), no team has shown a willingness to do that. (Teams that go 10 percent over also lose a second-round pick, and teams that go more than 15 percent over lose two second-round picks, but it does not appear that teams will ever flirt with those penalties.)

The White Sox went to the max they could on Rodon without having to give up a pick in the 2015 draft.

 

Current draft rules establish an overall signing budget for each team, based on the combined pick values for all of its selections in the first 10 rounds. Teams that exceed the budget pay a 75 percent tax on the overage, and if they go more than 5 percent over budget they lose a first-round pick in the next draft.

In three drafts under the new rules (this year is the third), no team has shown a willingness to do that. (Teams that go 10 percent over also lose a second-round pick, and teams that go more than 15 percent over lose two second-round picks, but it does not appear that teams will ever flirt with those penalties.)

I think if they go over 15% they lose 2 1st rd picks not second round, i am just guessing you misspoke or miswrote

The White Sox went to the max they could on Rodon without having to give up a pick in the 2015 draft.

 

Current draft rules establish an overall signing budget for each team, based on the combined pick values for all of its selections in the first 10 rounds. Teams that exceed the budget pay a 75 percent tax on the overage, and if they go more than 5 percent over budget they lose a first-round pick in the next draft.

In three drafts under the new rules (this year is the third), no team has shown a willingness to do that. (Teams that go 10 percent over also lose a second-round pick, and teams that go more than 15 percent over lose two second-round picks, but it does not appear that teams will ever flirt with those penalties.)

They used other ways to come up with more money to sign Rodon.  They basically threw away their 6th and 8th rd picks to come up with an extra 400K that went to Rodon.  Perhaps that is a good strategy but that's what I was talking about by having to go underslot later in the draft. 

They used other ways to come up with more money to sign Rodon.  They basically threw away their 6th and 8th rd picks to come up with an extra 400K that went to Rodon.  Perhaps that is a good strategy but that's what I was talking about by having to go underslot later in the draft. 

And i dont like that strategy myself, but i guess if your minor leagues is stocked with talent, then you could, and the Twins are pretty stocked, but I still wouldnt do it.

And i dont like that strategy myself, but i guess if your minor leagues is stocked with talent, then you could, and the Twins are pretty stocked, but I still wouldnt do it.

I'm not sure what to think of it.  How many 6th or 8th rd'ers really contribute?  Of course some do but not many.

But my point was that signing Rodon wasn't as simple as just using the +5% allowable overage.  Money came from elsewhere.  The area where it becomes a bigger issue is that the Twins wouldn't be able to go overslot in rds 2-4 for a guy like Gonsalves that dropped.

Tidbits from Deron Johnson:

- Terry Ryan has final say

-  Taking Aiken is "above his pay grade" due to medical reports

-  first 5 picks take best player available, then look at organization need after 5th Rd

- if take pitcher early got to believe can stay in rotation

-  Twins worked out 40 players for the draft, 6 in Target Field,  Georgia/California/Florida workouts as well

- Twins have medical staff in place with protocol for last 4-5 years

-  Twins war room doesn't get too heated as many have worked together in organization for 20+ years

-  Says Buxton most athletic player he's seen in his lifetime with tremendous work ethic

- Nick Gordon grew 1 1/2 inches and gained 15lb since being drafted

-  Doesn't matter if took a SS last year if the player they want is available they will take a SS

-  Says organization lacking power arms that's why went for Burdi, Cederoth, and Reed last year, it was also the draft's strength - they had starters rated higher but they went off the board

- Says the organization uses the new Complex in Ft Myers to attract players when visiting them at their home (draft and international); 2-3 personal cooks on the premises to ensure proper nutrition, English speaking classes, player safety and curfew.

-  Deron will be touring the Cedar Rapids and Ft. Myers teams the second half of the season; he'll be in CR next week

Classic double speak.  We go BPA in the first five rounds....yet last year we took a bunch of relievers because we needed them even though we had starters rated higher.

According to DJ they were rated high on their board despite being RP, just that the SPs they had rated higher were off the board at the time.  Rather take talent you had graded highly then talent you don't believe in.

Also, DJ doesn't believe the draft is a crapshoot, "you get outevaluated".  He's also not a big fan of drafting TJS due to being burned in the past.  DJ comes off as pretty old school when it comes to the draft.