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  • Minnesota Twins 2018 Draft Retrospective: Promising Early Results


    Cody Christie

    Minnesota's second draft with the current front office involved a more strategic approach since the team was coming off an improved 2019 season. So, how have the top picks from 2018 fared to this point in their careers?

    Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

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    Major League Baseball's 2022 Draft is scheduled to start on July 17, 2022. Each team prepares for the draft with a specific plan, and sometimes those plans play out better than others. To prepare fans for the upcoming draft, here is a look at some of the most important drafts in recent Twins history. 

    The 2017 regular season was a resurgent time in Twins Territory. Minnesota finished second in the AL Central after losing 103 games in 2016. Unfortunately, the Twins faced the Yankees in the AL Wild Card Game, but the team seemed headed in the right direction. With an improved record, Minnesota had a pick in the second half of the first round with multiple options at their disposal. 

    Minnesota selected Trevor Larnach with their first pick in the 2018 MLB Draft. Larnach was coming off an outstanding junior season at Oregon State University as he helped his team win the College World Series. His college experience meant he quickly moved through the team's farm system compared to other younger prospects in his draft class. Only six hitters from the 2018 draft have accumulated more than 400 at-bats in the big leagues. Among those players, Larnach has the third-highest WAR total (2.0 WAR) so far in his career. 

    In every draft, some players perform well even though they fell to picks later in the round. Tampa Bay's Shane McClanahan (4.1 WAR) and Chicago's Nico Hoerner (3.7 WAR) have accumulated the most WAR among 2018 first-round picks, and they were both selected after Larnach. Both players came from the college ranks, as only four high schoolers from this draft have made their debuts. Larnach is on a path to being an everyday player, but the Twins also needed to find value in the draft's other rounds. 

    Minnesota's second-round pick has proven to be nearly as valuable as Larnach. Ryan Jeffers was seen as a bat-first catcher as he had little defensive coaching out of college. Since joining the Twins, Jeffers has developed into one of the game's best pitch framers. He has also accumulated more WAR than any other second-round pick from this draft. His offensive approach has failed to live up to his tremendous 2020 season, but there is still time for him to make adjustments. 

    The Twins also found some value in the fifth round and later of the 2018 draft. Minnesota selected Cole Sands with their fifth-round pick (154th overall) and Josh Winder with their seventh-round pick (214th overall). Sands has struggled in his five big-league appearances, but he is considered one of the team's top-20 prospects. Winder rebuilt his pitching repertoire during the non-existent 2020 minor league season and established himself as one of the team's top pitching prospects. The Twins thought highly enough of him to include him on the team's Opening Day roster, and he started the season strongly (104 ERA+) before a shoulder injury moved him to the IL. 

    Minnesota lost their third-round pick by signing Lance Lynn and that didn't turn out great for the club. In the fourth round, the team added DaShawn Keirsey, a college outfielder. He is hitting .233/.308/.352 (.660) in 53 games at Double-A this season. In the sixth round, the Twins took Charles Mack, a high school shortstop, but the organization has moved him to catcher. As a 22-year-old, he has posted a .604 OPS at High-A this season, where he is slightly younger than the average age of the competition. 

    OTHERS REMAINING IN TWINS ORGANIZATION FROM 2018 DRAFT: 
    - 8th Round - C Chris Williams, Wichita (showing power with an .839 OPS)
    - 9th Round - RHP Regi Grace, Ft. Myers (big arm, moved to bullpen in 2022, over 11.0 K/9)
    - 10th Round - OF Willie Joe Garry, Cedar Rapids (speedy OF was getting hot for the Kernels when he broke his hand)
    - 11th Round - IF/OF Michael Helman, Saint Paul (recently promoted to St. Paul where he has an .856 OPS)
    - 12th Round - RHP Jon Olsen, Wichita (rehabbing with the FCL Twins after right elbow UCL reconstruction)
    - 15th Round - LHP Kody Funderburk, Wichita (Pitched in last year’s AFL and has a 2.41 ERA at Double-A)
    -19th Round - RHP Austin Schulfer, St. Paul (promoted to Triple-A after dominating out of the Wind Surge bullpen)

    -25th Round - LaRon Smith, 1B/C, Fort Myers (limited to five games this season, posted a .769 OPS in the FCL last year)
    -31st Round - LHP Zach Neff, Wichita (currently on the 60-day IL, had a 4.78 ERA last season)
    -33rd Round - LHP Denny Bentley, Wichita (Solid bullpen arm that has posted nearly 13.0 K/9 this season)


    Other late-round picks may develop and surprise from this draft, but both of the team's top two picks have developed into big-league regulars. There is also hope that Sands and Winder can impact the pitching staff in the years ahead. 

    What do you remember about this draft? What is Larnach's ceiling? What can Sands and Winder mean for the pitching pipeline? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

    OTHER POSTS IN THE SERIES
    -2012 MLB Draft Retrospective
    -2014 MLB Draft Retrospective
    -2016 MLB Draft Retrospective

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    If Larnach, Jeffers and Winder work out that will one heck of a draft.  I still like Sands but I also still think his future is in the bullpen.  I also think Schulfer has a chance yet to be a pen arm.  He has been shaky at time in AAA but he still has a chance.

    Helman has really turned a corner and while is probably too old to be a prospect he still has the potential to make an MLB club IMO.  Funderburk has pitched well the last two years. He doesn't appear to have dominant stuff but I bet he too could be a good pen arm by letting the fastball play up.

    I keep waiting and watching for LaRon Smith and he is off to a good start at low A.  Will be interesting to see if his bat stay good as I guess I don't understand why he wasn't at Low A last year.

    2018 has the potential to be a really good draft but the players have to perform well and continue to play at the MLB level before we can say for sure.

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    58 minutes ago, Dman said:

    If Larnach, Jeffers and Winder work out that will one heck of a draft.  I still like Sands but I also still think his future is in the bullpen.  I also think Schulfer has a chance yet to be a pen arm.  He has been shaky at time in AAA but he still has a chance.

    Helman has really turned a corner and while is probably too old to be a prospect he still has the potential to make an MLB club IMO.  Funderburk has pitched well the last two years. He doesn't appear to have dominant stuff but I bet he too could be a good pen arm by letting the fastball play up.

    I keep waiting and watching for LaRon Smith and he is off to a good start at low A.  Will be interesting to see if his bat stay good as I guess I don't understand why he wasn't at Low A last year.

    2018 has the potential to be a really good draft but the players have to perform well and continue to play at the MLB level before we can say for sure.

    A little early for comparison, but 2018 might be this front office's best draft overall so far.

    Larnach certainly looks like a good outcome for 20th overall, same with Jeffers in the second round.  Any time the top two picks in a draft exceed the average expectations for their slot it's probably a good draft.

    Winder emerging from the second day picks is also a coup, and I would agree that they still have a good chance to get a decent reliever from the group and maybe a utility player.

    I'm liking the returns so far from last year's draft so far, even with Petty's value now basically cashed in, but we'll have to wait a few years before we really know how well that draft paid off.

    The depth from 2019 also looks quite good, but the top of the draft is pretty suspect.

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