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  • MIN 12, TOR 6: More Like Er-win Sweep-tana!!!


    Tom Froemming

    Am I right!? Ervin Santana made an encouraging 2018 debut as the Twins managed to pull off a sweep at Toronto, scoring six runs in the top of the 11th inning. I spent much of the Royals series wondering aloud on here if the Twins taking a downturn before the deadline may be for the best, but these last three games have been fun. I mean, not really keep the band together fun, but still.

    Image courtesy of © Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

    Twins Video

    Snapshot (chart via FanGraphs)

    Ervin Santana: 50 Game Score, 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K, 3 BB, 61.9% strikes

    Bullpen: 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K, 1 BB

    Lineup: 6-for-17 w/RISP, 12 LOB

    WPA of 0.1 or higher: Garver .396, Kepler .364, Belisle .289, Duke .140

    WPA of -0.1 or lower: Morrison -.143, Hildenberger -.408

    WinChart725.png

    Let’s go around the horn …

    First Base

    It’s great to see Ervin back, and his 2018 debut has to be considered a success. After a much longer recovery than expected followed by some concerning reports throughout the early stages of his minor league rehab assignment, Santana didn’t pitch a gem but he gave his team a chance to win.

    Santana topped out at 91.1 mph, but relied heavily on his offspeed stuff. According to Baseball Savant, only 25 of his 97 pitches were fastballs. He threw 37 changeups and 35 sliders. Last season, Ervin averaged 93.1 mph on his four-seamer and only threw his changeup 10.3 percent of the time.

    It’ll be really interesting to follow Santana’s pitch usage, but as a veteran who’s had to make plenty of adjustments over his career, one would think he can still be an asset even without his best stuff going.

    Second Base

    Trevor Hildenberger’s having a weird year. He gave up three earned runs in an inning of work today, coughing up the lead in the eighth inning in the process. He’s now given up 21 earned runs this season, 11 of which have come in three particularly ugly appearances. But hey, he’s been pretty awesome in those other 44 games.

    It was all OK, because the Twins were bailed out by ... Matt Belisle? Wait, that can’t be right.

    OK, so Matty B pitched his way into trouble and then was aided by terrible baserunning by Kendrys Morales, but he did pitch a scoreless ninth inning. And he wasn’t done! Belisle came back out for the 10th, gave up a leadoff single, but again worked a scoreless inning.

    Just gonna go ahead and pencil Matt Belisle into my projected 2019 Minnesota Twins bullpen right now.

    Third Base

    Max Kepler, well ... he had a bad moment.

    https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/1022222775669469184

    Apparently Max didn’t inherit those dancer’s feet :) Kepler drove in the go-ahead run in the top of the 11th inning with a bases-loaded hit by pitch. Maybe not the most heroic way to pick up the game-winning RBI, but whatever works.

    The crazy part was the Twins just kept scoring in the 11th inning, thanks in large part to ...

    Home Plate

    Mitch Garver. He was the heartbeat of the Twins offense today. Garver singled to drive in the Twins first run in the second inning, hit a go-ahead home run in the sixth, added an RBI single in the eighth inning and then delivered a two-run double in the 11th.

    https://twitter.com/Twins/status/1022245124988755968

    Garver entered this game having hit .308 with an .868 OPS over his previous 30 games. It was also great to see things work out so that Mitch was catching Santana’s first game back. Forming a battery with such a veteran is only going to help Garver’s development behind the plate.

    Bullpen Usage

    Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days:

    Bullpen725.png

    AL Central Standings

    CLE 55-46

    MIN 47-53 (-7.5)

    DET 44-60 (-12.5)

    CHW 36-64 (-18.5)

    KC 31-70 (-24)

    Next Three Games

    Thu at BOS, 6:10 pm CT: Kyle Gibson vs. Brian Johnson

    Fri at BOS, 6:10 pm CT: Lance Lynn vs. Chris Sale

    Sat at BOS, 6:10 pm CT: TBD

    Last Three Games

    MIN 5, TOR 0: All-Star, Indeed

    MIN 8, TOR 3: Twins Cruise Over Toronto

    KC 5, MIN 3: Royals Sweep Twins, Butera Hits Inside-the-Park Homer (Seriously)

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    I understand Garver was not Option A; he was supposed to be the backup.  However, after last night, among all catchers in baseball with at least 200 plate appearances, he ranks 7th in BA, 6th in OBP and 10th in WAR.  There is ZERO reason he should be in a 50/50 split with Bobby Wilson.  He should be playing 2 out of 3 at a bare minimum.  Yet another reason to LOVE Molitor's 'managing'.  

     

    100% this.

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    Garver in his last 30 games has an OPS of .932; that’s great for anyone, let alone a catcher. The problem is, those 30 games comprise only 80 at bats, which suggests he’s only actually started 20 games, and pinch hit in the other 10. Those 30 games start on June 7, a total of 42 Twins games. In those 42 games, the Twins are 21-21; how many more wins would the Twins have if they had Garver’s elite production for more of those games, instead of Wilson’s .475 OPS?

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    So what's the theory -- that sometimes Belisle just forgets to "pitch strategically"? Or doesn't always have the stuff to execute it? Because we sure haven't trusted him to do this very often (if at all) so far in 2018.

    The theory is Belisle is plan C. The FO has every intention of replacing him on the roster, with a back of the bullpen guy at the trade deadline, if at all possible. If I'm not mistaken, board scapegoat Belisle had the lowest ERA on the team after 6-15 last season.

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    What was up with the 0-2 semi-overhand fastball right down the middle that Hildenberger threw? That batter was toast if Hildy would have just thrown something slow a foot off the plate in the lefty batters box.

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    "Twins manager Paul Molitor said. "Garv just had a phenomenal day. Started his first at-bat, the homer, the hit to right, the double. It was just one of those games where we needed everything." "

     

    So now he calls him "Garv"! Molitor won't play him, nearly enough, even when he is the hottest hitter on the team.... but now he acts like he is fond of him. Nice.

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    Thanks for the update. It says line drive outs on the summary, but if they were not well hit then kudos to Belisle...although, I can't come to say that he has earned my trust just yet.

     

    Belisle pitched well. He kept hitters off balance and was not hit hard. He was in trouble in his 9th inning as a result of a two singles. The second single was a weak bloop just over the infield. Bad luck for the Twins on the bloop. Bad base running for the Jays on the double play. A single, two strike outs and a lazy fly ball to right field in the 10th. 

     

    A very good performance. If doesn't mean anything for the rest of the season but he executed his pitches and kept hitters off balance when the Twins desperately needed a few innings.

     

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