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  • MIN 10, SEA 5: Another Double-Digit Scoring Effort, Another Bullpen Scare


    Andrew Gebo

    The Twins reached 10 runs yet again on Thursday afternoon, and they ended up needing nearly every one of them. Despite holding a 10-1 lead entering the eighth inning, things ended up getting much too interesting, though the Twins still managed to win 10-5.

    Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

    Twins Video

    Box Score

    Pineda: 5.2 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, 65.6% strikes (63 of 96 pitches)

    Bullpen: 3.1 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 1 K

    Home Runs: Cruz (12), Cron (15)

    Multi-Hit Games: Adrianza (3-for-5), Cruz (3-for-4, HR, BB), Polanco (2-for-6), Gonzalez (2-for-5, 2B), Schoop (2-for-4, 2B)

    WPA of +0.1: Pineda .304, Cruz .223, Arianza .204, Kepler .150

    WPA of -0.1: None

    ccs-8747-0-42395600-1560462154.png

    (chart via FanGraphs)

    Early Pitchers' Duel in Minnesota

    Today’s contest featured an early pitchers' duel, which is something we are not used to seeing from Minnesota this year. Pineda and Kikuchi were both sharp early on, limiting the scoring through the first five innings as Minnesota looked to improve to an 18-4 record following a loss.

    Early Wasted Opportunities

    The scoring opportunities were limited but the Twins wasted a good one in the second inning when they had the bases loaded with nobody out and couldn’t score a run. Through the first five innings Minnesota had stranded seven runners and were 1-for-7 with runners in scoring position. The lone run for Minnesota came courtesy of a solo home run from Nelson Cruz in the third inning.

    Small Ball Leads to a Big Sixth Inning

    The top half of the sixth inning was not a great one for Minnesota. After allowing two baserunners with two outs Pineda was pulled from the game and Ryne Harper was brought in to face Daniel Vogelbach. The need for another left-handed reliever in the Minnesota bullpen was never more apparent after Harper surrendered a base hit to Vogelbach which tied the game at 1-1.

    The bottom half of the inning, however, was a great one for Minnesota and featured something we haven’t seen much from this team. They scored six runs in the inning without hitting a home run or collecting an extra-base hit. Max Kepler led off the inning with a walk and Rocco Baldelli reached into his bag of tricks and called for a hit-and-run play with Ehire Adrianza at the plate. The hit-and-run was executed perfectly when Ehire singled through the right side of the infield advancing Kepler to third. A throwing error from the Seattle pitcher on a pick-off attempt allowed Kepler to score from third.

    A wild pitch advanced Adrianza to third and he scored on a Jason Castro ground ball to second with the infield drawn in. After Byron Buxton drew a walk, the Twins had runners on first and second and Jorge Polanco singled to center extending his hit streak to 14 games. The bases were loaded with nobody out. Unlike the second inning, Minnesota was able to capitalize on this opportunity.

    Nelson Cruz singled through the left side of the infield, scoring Castro and Buxton giving Minnesota a 5-1 lead. After a sacrifice fly from Marwin Gonzales and an RBI single from Max Kepler, Minnesota had a six-run bottom of the sixth and a 7-1 lead, breaking open what was once a pitchers duel.

    https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/1139258824815075328

    Bomba Squad Strikes Again

    After Minnesota broke the game open in the sixth they still weren’t done scoring. In the seventh inning Buxton walked, advanced to second on a wild pitch and scored on an RBI single from Polanco. Following the single from Polanco, Seattle turned to their bullpen and brought in Tyler Scott who received a rude welcome from C.J. Cron when he blasted a two-run home run on the second pitch of the at-bat.

    This game was cruising along and had the makings of a low-scoring pitchers duel but the potent Minnesota offense flipped the script in a hurry. When the fifth inning ended the score was 1-0. By the time the seventh inning was over Minnesota had jumped out to a 10-1 lead.

    Pineda Looks Sharp; Romero Struggles

    Pineda’s best start of the year came on May 16 in Seattle and he didn’t disappoint against his former team today either. Although he didn’t match his success from that May 16 start Pineda gave Minnesota a solid performance finishing with 5 2/3 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 4 K.

    Fernando Romero, who was recalled from Triple-A prior the game, struggled mightily in his return to the big leagues. He surrendered two hits, two walks and two runs before being pulled from the game without recording an out.

    Matt Magill was called upon to clean up the mess created by Romero and he did just that. He walked the first batter he faced, loading the bases with no outs, but quickly rebounded to retire the side without allowing a run to score.

    Stay Hot, Ehire Adrianza

    Remember when Adrianza was hitting below the Mendoza line and all of Twins territory couldn’t wait for him to be shown the door? Well, since May 13 he’s hitting .439/.510/.634.

    https://twitter.com/dohyoungpark/status/1139272698713051138

    Postgame With Baldelli

    https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/1139284064353959937

    Bullpen Usage

    Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days:

    ccs-8747-0-19311800-1560462346_thumb.png

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    Jose Rodriguez was the Twins Daily short-season minor-league hitter of the year. He is at the Dominican facilities for spring training now but will likely join Extended Spring Training in Fort Myers.

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    I am happy to eat a crow burger on Adrianza. He's been proving me wrong consistently.

     

    Nevertheless, speaking of regression, let's see if he can keep his BA over .270 for the rest of the season. If that happens, then I will be truly impressed.

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      On 6/14/2019 at 4:37 AM, DocBauer said:

    Stay Hot, Ehire Adrianza Remember when Adrianza was hitting below the Mendoza line and all of Twins territory couldn’t wait for him to be shown the door? Well, since May 13 he’s hitting .439/.510/.634. I really like this and feel everyone glossed over it. On a 25 man roster not everyone is created the same. If they were, we'd be arguing why Adrianza isn't starting daily over Polanco. Even on the best and deepest of teams, there are role players. In his role, Adrianza was pretty good the last two years. I still remember the surprise most of us had that we got a steal. He had a nice ST this year, then got off to a slow start, and a lot of people wanted to just dump him for whoever on the roster. And while regression s certain, this is a really nice ballplayer to have on your roster. Just wanted a little shout out to him.

    When Adrianza beat Houston and Verlander with a home run I thought it was just a blind squirrel occurrence. Now between him and Marwin we can give any non-catcher a day off and not lose a thing offensively.

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    With a 45-22 record and a double digit game lead in the Central, the Twins have the luxury of being able to play just over .500 ball for the entire remaining 95 games and still finish with a 93-69 record. I would like to think that the plan is to wait for key trading deadlines before making any moves and still being able to have starters pitch 5 or 6 innings max. Only injuries and /or a total offensive collapse can keep the Twins from winning the Central and they can play with house money until the right moves are available. The bull pen actually has been a key factor in multiple wins this year and giving up a few runs with a 10-1 lead is no big deal.

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      On 6/14/2019 at 2:41 AM, D.C Twins said:

    I think there is going to be a sellers market for relievers....We would be best served to strike early if possible because we will likely only have to over pay even more as there are fewer left.....and make no mistake about it, we will have to "overpay".... but now is the time!

    I would disagree with this assessment. Currently, all but 10 teams are within 5 games of the second wild card spot. Most of those teams still think they are contending. So right now most teams are going to take a wait and see approach to trading to see what happens the next month and as the market developes more players will become available.

     

    Because of the huge separation at the top this year most fringe teams will find themselves either chasing a long shot bid at the second wild card or selling and the smart teams will become sellers. I could even see a scenario in the AL this year where all 5 playoff spots are pretty much decided by trade deadline. That would leave 2/3 of the American league as sellers. 

     

    Patience will pay off in the end. The Twins have an excellent farm system and the prospects to make deals happen. Falvey and Levine have shown themselves to be aggressive traders at the deadline in the past and I believe this year will be no different. They can make a good deal without emptying the farm system. I don't want them to overpay and there are certain prospects they should hang on to especially elite pitchers. Looking at this organization now, this year shouldn't be a one year run at a world series, this year should be the first year of a multi-year run at several world series titles. Let's do this!

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    I remember during Adrianza's slow start he was looking completely lost at the plate and then he struck out against Chris Davis in a blowout win versus the Orioles. At that point I thought he was toast and would be DFA'd as soon as another bullpen arm was needed, and I would have been fine with it. Glad that didn't happen and hope he keeps this success up for the whole season and beyond.

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      On 6/14/2019 at 3:04 AM, DocBauer said:

    I'm really wondering if he shouldn't go right back to Rochester, have a big heart to heart with anyone and everyone, and just continue to learn his role as a reliever and just stay at Rochester for most or all the season until his mechanics and mental aptitude just settle in.

     

    But Rochester wasn't working for him either. If he needs confidence, maybe a short vacation in Pensacola or even Ft. Myers would be useful. Let him have 5-10 appearances down there and see if he can get the ball in the strike zone, keep it in the park, and start to find a groove. If so, then bring him back to Rochester and see if he can keep it going. Then, maybe, back to the Twins.

     

    Remember, this guy was at the top of our prospect charts a couple of years ago. He's not a Rochester-shuttle/AAAA-filler player. If we are going to realize benefit from this asset, we really need to groom him for the long term.

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      On 6/14/2019 at 1:54 PM, Number3 said:

    The bull pen actually has been a key factor in multiple wins this year and giving up a few runs with a 10-1 lead is no big deal.

    When you have 6 outs left, lead by 9 runs, and end up having to warm up your best guy (Rogers was up in the pen in the 9th)...who is trying to heal an injury....that's not good. And this type of finish to blow-outs has happened multiple times. I agree it's not likely to matter in the regular season. But help in the minors seems non existent...and the trade deadline isn't really that far away. 

     

     

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    Statistically, the Twins bullpen is 'ok'...still top half in terms of FIP, and most numbers that one would care about. Still not what you might want for a team that looks good enough to compete with the best in the post season. But the thing that is most concerning to me...the Twins are right at the bottom of MLB in innings pitched by bullpen. In other words, this is as good as it's likely to get with the current cast of characters. Any regression/struggle at all by the starters and we'll see more of the bottom half of this bullpen in leverage situations. Maybe that doesn't matter in the race to win the ALC? Maybe that won't matter in the post-season with Pineda and/or Perez moving to the pen? Maybe Mejia will ride in on a white horse?

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      On 6/14/2019 at 2:38 AM, mikelink45 said:

    I have been frustrated with Romero in the pen since the beginning. It still feels like Sano in RF. When someone is doing well in one situation, why change? As the summer progresses can we continue with a pen like this?

    I'm right there with you Mike. Moving Romero to the pen was ill advised and now this is a lost year for him. He's unrecognizable from last season. His delivery in 2018 was so smooth and effortless. He threw plenty of gas consistently at 95-97 MPH. Wes Johnson has done a lot of great things with the pitching staff, but he probably should have let Romero continuing to do his thing without trying to add another 2-3 MPH of velocity.

     

    I'm done with the experiment and think he should spend the rest of 2019 in the minors ramping up to start again in 2020.

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      On 6/14/2019 at 3:48 PM, jkcarew said:

    Statistically, the Twins bullpen is 'ok'...still top half in terms of FIP, and most numbers that one would care about. Still not what you might want for a team that looks good enough to compete with the best in the post season. But the thing that is most concerning to me...the Twins are right at the bottom of MLB in innings pitched by bullpen. In other words, this is as good as it's likely to get with the current cast of characters. Any regression/struggle at all by the starters and we'll see more of the bottom half of this bullpen in leverage situations. Maybe that doesn't matter in the race to win the ALC? Maybe that won't matter in the post-season with Pineda and/or Perez moving to the pen? Maybe Mejia will ride in on a white horse?

    Great post and you hit the nail on the head.

     

    The bullpen had been sufficient for the needs at a time. The bullpen wasn’t being tested the way it MAY (probably) need to be tested.

     

    It’s like a company truck repair shop with two bays. Business was booming and the trucks regular maintenance was being handled and the freight was being delivered without interruption.

     

    All of a sudden the breakdowns started occurring in bunches. The trucks started stacking up because two bays were not enough and now the company is turning down freight and losing money as a result.

     

    The Twins have a choice.

     

    A. Carry on as normal and wait for things to stabilize dropping the occasional loss in the short term with the likely risk of things not stabilizing.

     

    B. Since business is good. Grow with the business and don’t let something that can be fixed slow you down.

     

    I choose B

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    June 14. Best record in baseball. Double-digit lead in the division. Worst team in baseball coming into Target Field this weekend to serve up a feast of dingers, doubles, and tater tot hot dish.

     

    Yet we are beside ourselves with agony and complaining like crazy about the one weak spot on this squad. Compared to other teams our bullpen is decent - but it's not THE BEST and therefore we are worried and grousing daily.

     

    I just figured it out: this must be exactly what it feels like to be a Yankees fan.

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      On 6/14/2019 at 1:54 PM, Number3 said:

    With a 45-22 record and a double digit game lead in the Central, the Twins have the luxury of being able to play just over .500 ball for the entire remaining 95 games and still finish with a 93-69 record. I would like to think that the plan is to wait for key trading deadlines before making any moves and still being able to have starters pitch 5 or 6 innings max. Only injuries and /or a total offensive collapse can keep the Twins from winning the Central and they can play with house money until the right moves are available. The bull pen actually has been a key factor in multiple wins this year and giving up a few runs with a 10-1 lead is no big deal.

    The problem with waiting is that if they wait too long, there may not be any body worth getting left.

     

    Better to get people in sooner and evaluate them, slot them into a role and then regulate their workload so they are ready for October. Why let a non-contender wreck someone so they can win 72 games instead of 70?

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    It makes no sense that Romero’s problems stem from moving to the bullpen. Starting or relieving, he should be able to throw a strike. I’m guessing there’s an injury, a mechanical issue, a psychological blockage, a strategic blunder, or some combination of those things. One doesn’t suddenly forget how to pitch because they enter in the sixth inning.

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      On 6/14/2019 at 7:01 PM, bighat said:

    June 14. Best record in baseball. Double-digit lead in the division. Worst team in baseball coming into Target Field this weekend to serve up a feast of dingers, doubles, and tater tot hot dish.

     

    Yet we are beside ourselves with agony and complaining like crazy about the one weak spot on this squad. Compared to other teams our bullpen is decent - but it's not THE BEST and therefore we are worried and grousing daily.

     

    I just figured it out: this must be exactly what it feels like to be a Yankees fan.

    Successful teams come with higher expectations... A team needs to have a good bullpen to win and move on in the playoffs. That's why we agonize over this weak spot on the team...

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      On 6/14/2019 at 7:38 PM, Vanimal46 said:

    Successful teams come with higher expectations... A team needs to have a good bullpen to win and move on in the playoffs. That's why we agonize over this weak spot on the team...

    Agreed. Not saying we shouldn't agonize. It's just that this is uncharted territory for most of us. Last time the Twins were this stacked the internet and forums like this didn't exist. We wrote letters to the editor in 1991 and I can guarantee you none of those with complaints were published.

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      On 6/14/2019 at 8:14 PM, bighat said:

    Agreed. Not saying we shouldn't agonize. It's just that this is uncharted territory for most of us. Last time the Twins were this stacked the internet and forums like this didn't exist. We wrote letters to the editor in 1991 and I can guarantee you none of those with complaints were published.

    I've been waiting for this moment for a long time... Now my constant pleads to trade prospects for MLB players will be taken seriously!! :)

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      On 6/14/2019 at 8:14 PM, bighat said:

    Agreed. Not saying we shouldn't agonize. It's just that this is uncharted territory for most of us. Last time the Twins were this stacked the internet and forums like this didn't exist. We wrote letters to the editor in 1991 and I can guarantee you none of those with complaints were published.

    If there had been “fun with numbers” in 1991, when the Twins started 2-9, they had two guys batting their jersey numbers. Dan Gladden was hitting .032 and Junior Ortiz was hitting 0.

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