Mauer's Renaissance Season

Doubles · September 6, 2017

Joe Mauer is on the short list of most-polarizing athletes to ever hit the Twin Cities' sports scene. His 2009 MVP season is probably the only season he hasn't been subject to one level of criticism or another. To wit:

"Singles are great & all, but why can't / doesn't Joe drive the ball more?"

"Why doesn't he pull the ball more?"

"Pitchers know by now they just tube the first pitch and start his ABs 0-1. Why doesn't Joe jump on that first tasty-looking pitch? We all know it's coming!"

"A six-foot seven-inch singles hitter? Really?"

Even in his best seasons- 2009 aside- Joe has always heard these criticisms. As he winds down a pretty GD good / great career, I doubt those impressions are gonna change in the twilight of his career, even if they rightly should.

Don't believe that? Keep your ears to the ground the next time Joe has a big AB with a runner on first & rolls over a grounder up the middle. You'll hear more frustration vented than for almost any possible outcome for any play in a Twins game. Guaranteed.

Joe is always gonna be a lightning rod here in the Twin Ciites. He's been here too long for fans in general to change their opinion of him. Generally speaking, whatever most fans impressions of Mauer is at this point, is what it will be whenever his career ends.

Edited September 6, 2017 by Doubles

Seth Stohs · September 6, 2017

Not much is more infuriating to me than when we don't appreciate greatness when it's happening. Too many didn't appreciate Mauer when he was one of the top 3-5 players in all of baseball, and too many were quick to turn the moment he had the concussion and his career numbers plummeted. It's too bad. Top 5 player in team history. And what he's doing this year is fantastic... You just never know with concussions how long, or even if, they will recover completely.

Doubles · September 6, 2017

It's amazing the heat Mauer took, even as he was well on his way to a career that could have ended with him as one of, if not THE best-hitting catcher of ALL TIME, and surely enshrined in Cooperstown.

Between the big contract and then the injury / conky issues, Joe had little, if any chance, to escape considerable criticism.

sorney · September 6, 2017

I kinda feel like if management would have batted him in the leadoff spot, or at #2, all those *why doesn't he hit for power* questions would have been far less....Traditional "fans" always expect a big bopper at the 3 spot in the order, big HR's and big RBI totals. If Joe had the exact same career he has had, but started in 8 to 10 years later, he would have been appreciated much more.

Or, maybe not. Maybe he always would have been given crap.

BobAzar · September 6, 2017

Heres a discussion I had with friends and family: Mauer is a no-doubt Twins HoFer, but does #7 get retired? The only number that is retired that isnt in the national HoF (29,3, 34, 28) or won World Series (14, 10) is Oliva #6.

Personally, I think 7 should be retired, like said above, a lot of people didnt appreciate what was happening for many years.

theBOMisthebomb · September 6, 2017

This isn't a new story when it comes to concussions. It seems to take guys 3-4 years to recover, get healthy, and be productive again.

mikelink45 · September 6, 2017

I think it is great that Mauer is having a really good resurgence. He has really helped this year and he has had some great years, as well as years where he deserved some of the criticism he got. But that is all in the past. His HOF credentials? Unless he continues this production and builds some numbers he is on the outside. Writers have left out some really good catchers and he would have made it in if the concussion had not changes his path.

But the real puzzler for me is this - if he continues this trend and has a similar year next year he will become a free agent. The maximum cut allowed in baseball is 20% and it is hardly ever used - this would still be an $18,400,000 salary.

So how would this FO value Mauer in 2019? Would there be another contract? Would they dare offer the minimum contract possible under the labor agreement? Would they let him go FA and offer to sign him for whatever he is offered by others? What would the market for him be? How many teams would want him as their 1B?

Go Joe - your career has taken quite a path.

ThejacKmp · September 6, 2017

Joe Mauer will make the Hall of Fame. He's going to take a decade but I think his career is going to look very different down the road. Teams aren't going to keep the Posadas at catcher because they're going to value catcher defense. Joe's decade of dominance defensively and offensively is going to look that much better in an era with lighter hitting catchers. I also think he'll be looked at favorably in a sabremetrics era that values OBP more than SLG. And if he can win a Gold Glove this year, GG at two positions is another feather in his cap. This year already gives a counterargument to "he fell off a cliff when he stopped catching".

He used to be on a first ballot trajectory and that likely isn't coming back. But he's still going to make it in on the back side.

Seth Stohs · September 6, 2017

Heres a discussion I had with friends and family: Mauer is a no-doubt Twins HoFer, but does #7 get retired? The only number that is retired that isnt in the national HoF (29,3, 34, 28) or won World Series (14, 10) is Oliva #6.
Personally, I think 7 should be retired, like said above, a lot of people didnt appreciate what was happening for many years.

It absolutely should be (and most certainly will be).

ThejacKmp · September 6, 2017

Top 5 player in team history.

The only player you can conclusively say is better than Joe in Twins history is Killebrew. 21 seasons, 559 HR, 143 OPS+, six top-5 MVP finishes.

After that, your contenders are Carew, Oliva, Puckett and Paul Sorrento.

Carew = 12 seasons, 137 OPS+, six batting titles

Oliva = 15 seasons, 131 OPS+

Puckett = 12 season, 124 OPS+, 6 GG, postseason magic

Mauer = 14 seasons, 126 OPS+, MVP, 3 GG, 3 batting titles

Those are all pretty close, especially when you take position into account. Puckett was a CF and thus more valuable than Oliva in RF and Carew at 2B/1B but much less valuable than Mauer at C.

I personally go Killebrew, Carew, Mauer, Puckett, Oliva but can see almost any order of the last four. And I think Mauer can catch Carew on my list with a few more good years at the tail end of his career. (And I love Carew: my favorite is that he stole home seven times in 1969. I get teams didn't scout or have video back then but seven times???)

ThejacKmp · September 6, 2017

Heres a discussion I had with friends and family: Mauer is a no-doubt Twins HoFer, but does #7 get retired? The only number that is retired that isnt in the national HoF (29,3, 34, 28) or won World Series (14, 10) is Oliva #6.
Personally, I think 7 should be retired, like said above, a lot of people didnt appreciate what was happening for many years.

His number will absolutely be retired in the first season after he calls it quits. It's an automatic. He's in the upper echelons of Twindom.

DJL44 · September 6, 2017

"The Twins had signed him to an eight-year, $184 million deal following his 2009 MVP

and it was looking like he was going to be worth every penny."

20 WAR and counting since that extension. At $7.5M per WAR that's $150M of value. Joe produces 4 WAR between now and the end of the next season and the Twins break even on that investment.

Steve Lein · September 6, 2017

But the real puzzler for me is this - if he continues this trend and has a similar year next year he will become a free agent. The maximum cut allowed in baseball is 20% and it is hardly ever used - this would still be an $18,400,000 salary.

The Salary thing is easy: You don't "re-sign" him. I'm certain that rule only applies to contracts replacing a currently valid one, i.e.: an extension (if that is even is a rule? I don't see that anywhere).

If he goes to FA his minimum salary is not going to be $18.4MIL that a team could offer him - the market dictates everything there.

70charger · September 6, 2017

The Salary thing is easy: You don't "re-sign" him. I'm certain that rule only applies to contracts replacing a currently valid one, i.e.: an extension (if that is even is a rule? I don't see that anywhere).

If he goes to FA his minimum salary is not going to be $18.4MIL that a team could offer him - the market dictates everything there.

Yeah, I have to believe that rule is not for actual free agent deals (spycake? Help us out?)

If he hits the "free market," which shouldn't actually be too free because the Twins would have the most interest in signing him and presumably he'd be most interested in staying with the Twins, he can sign for whatever amount he wants.

Though if this renaissance continues, I doubt it'll be the few million that some here have suggested. But that's probably a story for another day...

Linus · September 6, 2017

The Salary thing is easy: You don't "re-sign" him. I'm certain that rule only applies to contracts replacing a currently valid one, i.e.: an extension (if that is even is a rule? I don't see that anywhere).

If he goes to FA his minimum salary is not going to be $18.4MIL that a team could offer him - the market dictates everything there.

I believe the 20% max cut he is referring to applies to arbitration only. Joe can sign any free agent contract he likes.

frightwig · September 6, 2017

Joe Mauer, Top 15 1st Baseman. Get some!

Really, I'm glad that he's apparently seeing the ball better. 2 WAR at 1B isn't a star player, but it's solid value. Whether there will be a great FA market for a John Olerud type at age 36... eh, I guess it all depends on whether he's better than 115 wRC+, 2 WAR next year.

Monkeypaws · September 6, 2017

I don't like retiring numbers. A team hall of fame is sufficient.

Especially the single digit numbers!

spinowner · September 6, 2017

His 2009 season was not only the best in the AL that year, it's probably one of the ten most valuable seasons in the history of baseball.

Mr. Brooks · September 6, 2017

His 2009 season was not only the best in the AL that year, it's probably one of the ten most valuable seasons in the history of baseball.

No, not even close.

He had 7.9 bWAR that year, which is a great year, but, just for perspective, Barry Bonds alone had 11 seasons with more BWAR than that.

I'd doubt it would even come close to top 100.

spinowner · September 7, 2017

No, not even close.
He had 7.9 bWAR that year, which is a great year, but, just for perspective, Barry Bonds alone had 11 seasons with more BWAR than that.
I'd doubt it would even come close to top 100.

I don't think WAR is adequate in assessing the impact of a catcher's contributions to his team's success. There are so many little things that catchers do that don't show up in the formula. Good catchers can reduce the number of stolen base attempts. Good catchers call the right pitch in key situations. Good catchers point out flaws in a pitcher's delivery or approach to a batter. Good catchers prevent wild pitches. And this is just the tip of the iceberg.

Squirrel · September 7, 2017

Joe Mauer is on the short list of most-polarizing athletes to ever hit the Twin Cities' sports scene. His 2009 MVP season is probably the only season he hasn't been subject to one level of criticism or another. To wit:
"Singles are great & all, but why can't / doesn't Joe drive the ball more?"
"Why doesn't he pull the ball more?"
"Pitchers know by now they just tube the first pitch and start his ABs 0-1. Why doesn't Joe jump on that first tasty-looking pitch? We all know it's coming!"
"A six-foot seven-inch singles hitter? Really?"
Even in his best seasons- 2009 aside- Joe has always heard these criticisms. As he winds down a pretty GD good / great career, I doubt those impressions are gonna change in the twilight of his career, even if they rightly should.
Don't believe that? Keep your ears to the ground the next time Joe has a big AB with a runner on first & rolls over a grounder up the middle. You'll hear more frustration vented than for almost any possible outcome for any play in a Twins game. Guaranteed.
Joe is always gonna be a lightning rod here in the Twin Ciites. He's been here too long for fans in general to change their opinion of him. Generally speaking, whatever most fans impressions of Mauer is at this point, is what it will be whenever his career ends.

Polarizing is a very apt description for Mauer.

AlwaysinModeration · September 7, 2017

Polarizing is a very apt description for Mauer.

He's Gibsonian!

ThejacKmp · September 7, 2017

If he hits the "free market," which shouldn't actually be too free because the Twins would have the most interest in signing him and presumably he'd be most interested in staying with the Twins

Yeah, the only other place I could see him playing would be in Tampa since it's a few hours from his place in FL. But assuming the Twins want him (and it seems likely they will since the cupboard is bare for 1B/DH types), I'd imagine the interest is mutual. Two years $16 million?

frightwig · September 7, 2017

Yeah, the only other place I could see him playing would be in Tampa since it's a few hours from his place in FL. But assuming the Twins want him (and it seems likely they will since the cupboard is bare for 1B/DH types), I'd imagine the interest is mutual. Two years $16 million?

It's possible that Former Indians Executive Derek Falvey would like to sign Carlos Santana this winter; or, maybe the brain trust is already thinking about moving Sano to 1B in a couple years.

Otto von Ballpark · September 7, 2017

His 2009 season was not only the best in the AL that year, it's probably one of the ten most valuable seasons in the history of baseball.

By Fangraphs WAR, it is actually 8th all time just among catchers:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=1901&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=22,d

Within a half win of #4, though.

#2 among catchers in wRC+ (offense only), but remember, Mauer only caught 109 games that year.

Obviously a great season, but you'd have a very hard time to justify it as top 10 overall among all players, unless you want 3-4 catcher seasons among your top 10. (Especially difficult if you include pitchers too.)

Mike Sixel · September 7, 2017

Mauer has been awesome this second half. It would be great if he could keep it going. Congrats to him!

Otto von Ballpark · September 7, 2017

A little uneasy about calling 2017 a meaningful "renaissance" for Mauer. He basically had the same OPS in mid-August last year, in only about 20 fewer PA than he has this year. He is definitely doing better than some of his lower post-concussion points, but I am not sure it is that drastic of an improvement. Do love the lower K rate, hopefully he can maintain that. Otherwise he seems likely largely the same player, and his improved 2017 numbers are more of a function of sample timing / end points.

ThejacKmp · September 7, 2017

It's possible that Former Indians Executive Derek Falvey would like to sign Carlos Santana this winter; or, maybe the brain trust is already thinking about moving Sano to 1B in a couple years.

The Twins still have a gaping hole at DH. Any move of Sano would potentially be to DH and any free agent signing could be there too. And I don’t see Sano’s move happening – the Twins have no one coming up the farm system at 3B and Sano is so much more valuable playing 3B. I don’t see him moving until his late 20s at the earliest.

I've heard a lot about Santana here but I don't see it. Most of the noise seems to be centered on Falvey bringing in guys he had in Cleveland. I think that’s pretty simple thinking – they’re going to look at Santana and the market, not blindly go after a guy they like. Gimenez was a Falvey guy but he also made sense given the market and the options at backup C. The Twins won’t overpay.

The 1B/DH market is interesting– Santana, Matt Holiday, Carlos Beltran, Logan Morrison, Lucas Duda, Mitch Moreland and Hosmer are the names that jump out. Beltran has indicated that he would retire but who knows if that’s true. Hosmer is going to get paid somewhere. After that, Santana seems the most likely to command a big salary somewhere. I’d see him getting 4 years and upwards of $50 million. I just don’t see the Twins being that team, especially since a lot of contenders will be looking to fill holes – HOU with Beltran, NYY with Holiday, TEX with Moreland and CLE with Santana. Those are teams that are likely to see Santana as a missing piece and are bigger markets (except the Cleve of course).

I’d be surprised if the Twins weren’t more in the market for some of the guys who are available on short term deals. They’ll be helped that they seem like a contender and could be a good spot for a guy interested in playoff potential. Issue there is that Moreland, Duda and Morrison all hit lefty and thus aren’t a good match.

spanman2 · September 7, 2017

Not much is more infuriating to me than when we don't appreciate greatness when it's happening. Too many didn't appreciate Mauer when he was one of the top 3-5 players in all of baseball, and too many were quick to turn the moment he had the concussion and his career numbers plummeted. It's too bad. Top 5 player in team history. And what he's doing this year is fantastic... You just never know with concussions how long, or even if, they will recover completely.

Couldn't agree more...I think it has everything on the negative side of the fan base to do with the number 23 as in million.

Edited September 7, 2017 by spanman2

spinowner · September 8, 2017

By Fangraphs WAR, it is actually 8th all time just among catchers:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=1901&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=22,d

Within a half win of #4, though.
#2 among catchers in wRC+ (offense only), but remember, Mauer only caught 109 games that year.

Obviously a great season, but you'd have a very hard time to justify it as top 10 overall among all players, unless you want 3-4 catcher seasons among your top 10. (Especially difficult if you include pitchers too.)

This still doesn't take into account the many things I referred to in my earlier post.

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