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When Paul Molitor stated early in spring he expected to have Tyler Duffey in the rotation, it signaled that he was considering pushing Nolasco to the bullpen. Presented with that possibility, the veteran made it clear that he would raise a stink.
Alas, Nolasco ends up getting his rotation spot and Duffey starts in Triple-A. Some might see it as the organization relenting to a malcontent, but I see it more as trying to salvage an asset.
Had the Twins decided to send Nolasco to the bullpen, it sounds like he would have implored them to trade him somewhere he could start. I’m sure they would love to do that, but he stands no chance of building any kind of market as a mop-up man.
If, on the other hand, he gets off to a decent start in the rotation, and some other clubs suffer early losses in their starting corps? That changes things. He’ll never bring back much in a trade but at this point that’s almost immaterial.
It would be hard to stomach this course of action if it meant accepting a clear performance downgrade, but that’s not the case. Duffey simply didn’t look very good this spring, and it’s not about the results. The change-up that he’s been dedicated to making a workable third pitch isn’t there. The curveball that he leaned so heavily on as a rookie isn’t having the same kind of effect, even by his own admission.
I thought this Duffey quote, in Parker’s story from Fort Myers last week, was telling:
“I think guys know it’s coming so they’re sitting on it. One guy took two fastballs. Didn’t even budge. I think he was sitting dead-red on curveball. So that’s where I’m going to have to adjust accordingly.”
Sounds like something he needs to work on, and maybe not against major-league hitters.
Nolasco throws a ton of breaking balls, but insists his fastball is his most important pitch, as it sets up everything else he does. And whereas Duffey’s key pitch was failing him, Nolasco’s was trending up. This development, much more so than their Grapefruit stats, makes the decision a justifiable one for now.
If the veteran gets off to a clunky start while Duffey rolls in Triple-A? Then you make the switch, and at that point Nolasco can complain all he wants but really has no leg left to stand on. Perhaps then the Twins consider a more drastic option like straight-up release.
Another hidden benefit of the decision to put Nolasco in the rotation is that it opened up an extra spot in the bullpen and might have saved the Twins from losing Tonkin. The vibe when I was in camp was that the 26-year-old had little chance of making the roster because the team preferred Ryan Pressly and didn’t have room for both.
Well, now they do. And I believe it would have been a big mistake to risk giving Tonkin (who is out of options) away on waivers, especially with the questionable overall state of the relief unit.
As the last guy in the bullpen, he’ll start out pitching in lower-leverage situations and being called upon after short starts, similar to the role filled last year by Rule 5 draftee J.R. Graham. But Tonkin is certainly more deserving of being in the majors on merit (he has a 2.65 ERA and 9.7 K/9 at Triple-A), and if he performs well he’ll have a chance to work his way into more important innings.
Carrying him means they lack a traditional long man in the pen. Giving Nolasco a rotation spot means sending down a guy in Duffey who did everything to earn it last year. But the upside of these decisions is that the Twins might get a solid middle reliever out of the deal, and get a chance to recoup some semblance of value on their $48 million investment in Nolasco.
The downside could be losing a few more games. But that downside only extends so far as the team's resistance to implementing quick changes if things go south, and something tells me that won't be an issue.
They believe in Nolasco and Tonkin enough to give them one more look, but they're skeptical enough of both that the leashes will be short.
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