Mailbox: Openers, Trading Buxton, Kirilloff’s Debut

"It doesn’t make sense to overspend on relief pitchers......."

 

Definitely opinion and not fact. In fact....... recent (the last decade) post season runs that are successful would beg loudly to differ.

We can spend.  Pay a high quality pitcher what they are worth.  So sick of bargain shopping!

And how much does Keuchel want? How many years? Do we want him if it's 3 years & $51M? What if it's 4 years and $60M?

 

 

I'm pretty sure every team not named the Marlins would sign either of those deals in a heartbeat. 

I think the thought is, he's looking for 5/100M

Listed below is the fWAR for the top 8 RPs in terms of AAV.

 

Jansen 2017 ------- 3.2
Jansen 2018 -------- .4

Melancon 2017 ----- .4
Melancon 2018 ----- .3

W. Davis 2018 ----- .9

Chapman 2017 --- 1.6
Chapman 2017 --- 1.9

Britton 2017 ------  .6
Britton 2017 ------  .1

A Miller 2017 ----- 2.4
A Miller 2017 -----   .4

Robertson 2016 -- .9
Robertson 2016 -- 1.9
Robertson 2016 -- 1.5

Nicasio 2017 ----- 1.5
Nicasio 2017 ----- .8

 

Average WAR ---- 1.175
1 of 16 seasons over 2.5 WAR
2 of 16 seasons over 2.0 WAR
2 of 16 seasons over 2.0 WAR
5 of 16 seasons over 1.5 WAR

 

Listed below is the fWAR for this years top free agent RPs in terms of AAV.

 

Britton ---- 0.6 / 0.1
Robertson - 1.9 / 1.5
Miller ------ 2.4 / 0.4
Familia ---- 0.3 / 1.7
Joe Kelly -- 0.7 / 0.7
Herrera -- 0.1 / 0.4

 

Average WAR for the past two years = .9
1 of 12 seasons with a WAR of 2+

Listed below are the 2018 top RPs in terms of fWAR

1 - Blake Treinen
2 - Edwin Diaz
3 - Josh Hader
4 - Jose Leclerc
5 - Craig Stammen
6 - Felipe Vazquez
7 - Adam Ottavino
8 - Jose Alvarado
9 - Will Smith
10 - Aroldis Chapman
11 - Taylor Rogers
12 - Ryan Pressly
13 - Joakim Soria
14 - Jeremy Jeffress
15 - Dellin Betances
16 - Jeurys Familia
17 - Kirby Yates
18 - Chad Green
19 - Tony Watson
20 - Mychal Givens

Hmm.....I kind of hate using WAR to evaluate single seasons of relief pitchers, but if that's what we're doing, I still think it's impossible to draw any sort of conclusion from all this data. And it's good data, but it's not information.

How does average WAR for highest AAV compare to the lowest AAV? And the middle tier(s)? How should a team be spending its money? And how would the marginal dollars be spent differently (or would they be spent at all)?

While the research and data is appreciated and impressive, I don't think any of this gets us much closer to answering those questions.

I'm pretty sure every team not named the Marlins would sign either of those deals in a heartbeat. 

 

I think the thought is, he's looking for 5/100M

I think he's going to be waiting a while, then. 1) I'm not sure too many teams consider him a $20M/year pitcher, and 2) too many teams have gotten burned on the 5+ year pitching contracts. (James Shields, anyone?)

What's the alternative you are suggesting? I must have misunderstood.

I am not really sure, Mike.  BP arms are so unpredictable. The question I am raising is basically … Are high dollar free agent RPs a good utilization of financial resources?  Would we be better off spending our available free agent dollars on position players or is there a category of SPs that have proven to effective spending. This is by no means a suggestion we not spend for BP arms.  I just does not look like the correlation between salary and WAR is very strong. I wish I had the data available to the FO. It would be a lot easier to recognize which practices (player profiles) have produced the best results.

We are seeing changes to spending strategy across the league. There are teams recognizing they have built rosters that maximized their spending and resulted in good teams but not serious contenders and they are reconstructing those rosters. I am suggesting we not follow a path that leads to the same result … good but no real chance of becoming a serious contender.

Hmm.....I kind of hate using WAR to evaluate single seasons of relief pitchers, but if that's what we're doing, I still think it's impossible to draw any sort of conclusion from all this data. And it's good data, but it's not information.

 

How does average WAR for highest AAV compare to the lowest AAV? And the middle tier(s)? How should a team be spending its money? And how would the marginal dollars be spent differently (or would they be spent at all)?

 

While the research and data is appreciated and impressive, I don't think any of this gets us much closer to answering those questions.

I agree WAR is a bit iffy but it’s probably the best summary data we have.  It should also be noted this is not anecdotal and the data does provide some insight . There is 2 years WAR for everyone but Davis and this data represents the entire population with the entire population being defined as the top AAV guys.  Of course, there is some subjectivity as to where to cut off the top AAV.

There are some reasonable takeaways.  The context of the discussion here is putting difference makers on the roster. The top RPs we primarily not the highest paid RPs. Therefore, to insist the only or even best route is to sign the top $ guys is to ignore history (data). The data also shows the tenuous nature of RPs which in itself calls into question the wisdom of a mid-market team spending for multiple high $ BP arms.

The argument it will go unspent is short-sighted. Yes, it might go unspent this year but the league demonstrates a consistent pattern of spending. That pattern is max the budget when within a window of contention. We will get there if the team comes together and we spend the $30-40M of remaining budget wisely. If we spend the lion’s share on a couple RPs and they perform as history suggests, we add a 2-3 wins and the team is still considerably short of the other playoff-teams.

I agree WAR is a bit iffy but it’s probably the best summary data we have.  It should also be noted this is not anecdotal and the data does provide some insight . There is 2 years WAR for everyone but Davis and this data represents the entire population with the entire population being defined as the top AAV guys.  Of course, there is some subjectivity as to where to cut off the top AAV.

There are some reasonable takeaways.  The context of the discussion here is putting difference makers on the roster. The top RPs we primarily not the highest paid RPs. Therefore, to insist the only or even best route is to sign the top $ guys is to ignore history (data). The data also shows the tenuous nature of RPs which in itself calls into question the wisdom of a mid-market team spending for multiple high $ BP arms.

 

The argument it will go unspent is short-sighted. Yes, it might go unspent this year but the league demonstrates a consistent pattern of spending. That pattern is max the budget when within a window of contention. We will get there if the team comes together and we spend the $30-40M of remaining budget wisely. If we spend the lion’s share on a couple RPs and they perform as history suggests, we add a 2-3 wins and the team is still considerably short of the other playoff-teams.

I don't disagree with much of what you say. Don't misunderstand my arguments to be of the same ilk at the CHEAP POHLADZ crowd. Spending money on free agents is far from the most important thing you can do to build a contender.

What I will say though is that on paper, right now, the Twins will likely by a ~83 win team when PECOTA is released by Baseball Prospectus. The marginal value of adding 5-6 wins for the Twins is higher than it is for most teams in the league. They should be making bets to get those wins. Those bets might be expensive, they might not be. They have PLENTY of money to go out and make the moves they believe raise their projections to 88 wins. I'd advise against locking into long term deals given the current young core, but $$ shouldn't be a primary door-closer.

Would you trade Kirilloff or Lewis for Realmuto? I think that would get it done.

"Be patient with Buxton, he needs to be part of the Twins solution and he certainly isn’t part of Minnesota’s problem right now."

What?  We have no idea what we will get from him this season or beyond.  That is a problem.

I might have last year, but not for two years of control, no. Three or more years? Probably.

I think I agree but I wouldn’t be very upset if they trade Kirilloff for Realmuto.

They would be selling Kirilloff at his highest point thus far in his career and getting a huge upgrade at catcher. We could easily sitting in July 2020 with no solution at catcher while keeping a top prospect significantly struggling with plate discipline in the major leagues.

option 3, convert starters to relievers: Romero, Mejia and Gonsalves could be good relief options in 2019

I think this is a very real possibility. And one I think could work. I just think they're close enough that spending some money to provide options is the most prudent path forward.

"It doesn't make sense to overspend on relief pitchers."  Man, some Twins fans/writers have Stockholm Syndrome. The Twins ownership can certainly afford to spend more than they currently do, and there is no cap in baseball so there is no such thing as overspending, IMO. 

Reading Tom's comment at #22 gives us a better context of what he meant by that sentence. I believe you may have misconstrued his meaning.

That said, I'm sick and tired of this FO and the last one falling short on remedies in the penover the last half dozen off-seasons and a handful of deadlines.

Machado or Harper and one more relief pitcher puts them at around ninety wins, if you think they are at 83 or 84 right now.

I agree, position players are more predictable. But, as we are seeing this year, needs and available talent don't always line up. It's why I am sceptical that waiting for everything to line up, then spend, will work. Because what if there is no difference matter at the position the twins need next year? Then what?

Add talent. When you can. Wisely, but add it.

Realmuto and Harper. Make it happen. Rosario or Kepler go to Miami, plus Gordon and any minor league pitcher other than whomever the twins like most. Then pay the money for Harper and a relief pitcher.

They are predicted for 83 wins. Harper would not be taking the place of a replacement level player.  He had an enormous year in 2015 with 9.3 WAR in 2015  but he has averaged 3.77 WAR over the last 3 years since that huge season. He would not add 6 or 7 WAR.  More like 2 and perhaps less if Kepler breaks-out as predicted.  As the data above has shown, the highest AAV free agent RPs have produced 1 WAR on average so your projection is very optimistic.

Realmuto would already be in Houston or LA if Miami was willing to take the type of package you suggest. It's well-documented their ask is ridiculous. Is that the type of deals you want the FO to make?

I'm assuming the last relief pitchers they use this year will produce negative WAR, as they have nearly every year here, so we are looking at more than a 1 WAR gain.

I'd like them to try to win. If they have other ways of doing that, great. But adding wins helps more than pocketing money, at least for fans. So, if they have another way, great! But treading water does nothing but use another year of control for this group up.

So, if every idea I have is unreasonable, which it might be, what is your suggestion for actually winning? I'm not interested in another year or three of waiting. Other teams have rebuilt much, much, faster.

Can you give the board the names of mid-market teams which have rebuilt much, much faster? I can't help remembering you posted the Phillies rebuilt much faster recently. They haven't made the play-offs since 2011. 

 Brewers, A's, and Braves took less time. Tampa hasn't made the play-offs since 2013 and the Rockies took longer. In no case was any rebuild much, much faster. In fact all were fairly close. 

I can't help but remember an article I read in BA years ago. The crux of the article was it takes a mid-market team a minimum of 6 years to do a complete rebuild. Feel free to contact the boys down in North Carolina if you want a copy. They are very helpful.