Mailbag: Buxton’s Leash, Likely Lineup, Ticket Sales

I hope the front office doesn't botch things with Tyler Austin like they did with Daniel Palka.  Guess who is a left handed power hitter that the Twin's front office let go last year and immediately led the White Sox in home runs last year with 100 fewer at bats than the next closest guy?    Yup.....Palka!   (Palka does have some flaws...but left handed power hitter who is only 27 years old.......)

Machado is only worth 2 to 3 more wins to this club? I think you are miscalculating somewhere. His power alone would add 3 times that. Polonco might hit right with him for average but HR and RBI's Machado has a huge edge. That means run production. Run Production means winning games.

I hope the front office doesn't botch things with Tyler Austin like they did with Daniel Palka.  Guess who is a left handed power hitter that the Twin's front office let go last year and immediately led the White Sox in home runs last year with 100 fewer at bats than the next closest guy?    Yup.....Palka!   (Palka does have some flaws...but left handed power hitter who is only 27 years old.......)

Where would we play Palka in our lineup if we still had him?  He is a bad outfielder with limited experience anywhere else.  It would likely be between Cave, Cruz and him.  Sorry Palka, I'll take the other two.  Finding a poor fielding, power hitter with a .240 batting average and under .300 OBP is not that hard to find. 

I hope the front office doesn't botch things with Tyler Austin like they did with Daniel Palka.  Guess who is a left handed power hitter that the Twin's front office let go last year and immediately led the White Sox in home runs last year with 100 fewer at bats than the next closest guy?    Yup.....Palka!   (Palka does have some flaws...but left handed power hitter who is only 27 years old.......)

The Sox finished behind the Twins in the standings too. Palka can hit the ball a long way, but he's a fringe MLB player. Players like that tend to get at bats on last place teams. (See the Twins box scores of the past few years.)

I don't know Schoop well, but I question why so many lineup predictions have him in the 6 spot. His numbers last year suggest 8-9 hole to me, unless he turns it around anyway.

I hope they don't replace Robbie Grossman at all. Robbie had no useful role on the team.

Where would we play Palka in our lineup if we still had him?  He is a bad outfielder with limited experience anywhere else.  It would likely be between Cave, Cruz and him.  Sorry Palka, I'll take the other two.  Finding a poor fielding, power hitter with a .240 batting average and under .300 OBP is not that hard to find. 

Grossman had a WAR of 1.5 in 129, Palka had a WAR of .6 in 124 games and the fans (rightfully so) can't get Grossman out of town quit enough.

As fans we really need to quick worrying about the average at best minor leagues players that the Twins have given up on worry about getting the best talent possible on the Roster.

I hope the front office doesn't botch things with Tyler Austin like they did with Daniel Palka.  Guess who is a left handed power hitter that the Twin's front office let go last year and immediately led the White Sox in home runs last year with 100 fewer at bats than the next closest guy?    Yup.....Palka!   (Palka does have some flaws...but left handed power hitter who is only 27 years old.......)

Meh. I just don't understand the love for Austin. He's a big swinger who adds little defense and doesn't get on base nearly enough to be significant asset. 

Palka? I certainly see the comp to Austin, but it doesn't speak all that well of either of them. Palka got a shot last year and despite 27 dingers he was still posted a measly bWAR of 0.6. Austin didn't get as much PT, but was roughly the same player. These are ok players to have on the roster if you have room, but in today's game they're getting cut as soon as they cost any money, because they have limited skills, no real positional flexibility, and are replaceable.

Austin is a better defensive player than Palka, but not much. CJ Cron is better than either of them. Hopefully Brent Rooker will be better than any of them.

Can't bat either Castro nor Garver in front of Buxton, unless you want to see some triples turning into doubles, or some runs from first base having to be held up at third.

I hope the front office doesn't botch things with Tyler Austin like they did with Daniel Palka.  Guess who is a left handed power hitter that the Twin's front office let go last year and immediately led the White Sox in home runs last year with 100 fewer at bats than the next closest guy?    Yup.....Palka!   (Palka does have some flaws...but left handed power hitter who is only 27 years old.......)

Palka, OBP south of .300 k rate at 36.6%  and bad defense. Meh, he's basically another Oswaldo Arcia......

Can't bat either Castro nor Garver in front of Buxton, unless you want to see some triples turning into doubles, or some runs from first base having to be held up at third.

The tradeoff is Buxton serves as a second lead-off hitter when the lineup turns over. His potential for causing chaos on the basepaths serves as a distraction to the pitcher, giving the hitters behind him a better opportunity at the plate. If he can get on base, that is.

"Even if Buxton’s bat struggles again, he continues to provide value through his defense and base running abilities."

His 162 game average in 518 at bats is a .230 batting average, .285 OBP, .672 OPS and 180 Ks.  That is like having a black hole in the lineup.  He is too easy an out for the other team if he isn't going to get on base AND he's going to strike out so often.  Anything worse than his historical average and he does more harm than good by being in the everyday lineup.  

I hope they don't replace Robbie Grossman at all. Robbie had no useful role on the team.

Castro will pick up the slack in taking called third strikes and then complaining. 

Bunt Buck Bunt.

I like your lineup, however I would switch Sano and Kepler. Then it will be like marching in basic training in the army. Switch, left, right, left, right, left, right, left, right. "Double time, harch" !

I don't think the FO signed Schoop with the expectation of repeating last year's numbers.

True, but the proposal to bat Buxton is based on his recent performance, not his potential to be better.

I see him hitting 7th or 8th until he hits his way higher in the lineup.

But that's Baldelli's call.

Buxton's 162 game average is also 3.7 WAR. That seems like more good than harm.

That, to me, is just another illustration of how WAR isn't the end-all/be-all

Maybe it should make you look closer at the data you just posted instead.

 

You posted that Buxton's career OPS is .672 and said that was a black hole in the lineup. Well, MLB CF collectively posted only a .726 OPS in 2018. The league non-pitcher OPS was only .740.

 

In that context, .672 isn't good, of course. But it's not a black hole either, and certainly not anything that good defense and baserunning can't vault to average or even above-average overall performance, which was the contention of the post to which your were originally responding.

 

You don't even need to WAR to see that either -- Buxton's career OPS+ relative to the league is 80, and Greg Gagne's was 83 during his tenure with the Twins. Chuck Knoblauch posted a 90 and 91 in 2 of his first 3 seasons. Nobody really disputed that those guys were still valuable overall performers, with or without WAR (although I feel that WAR is a handy shorthand for illustrating the concept).

 

Buxton is certainly capable of even worse, truly "black hole" type performances in smaller samples, and there are posters here who have argued those bad months have an outsized effect on his overall value. But his overall numbers which you presented, by themselves, don't suggest a black hole that can't be overcome by defense and baserunning.

If you are posting a .672 OPS as a centerfielder in the American League that is pretty damn bad.  Name me the CF who had an OPS below .700 with 600 plate appearances.  The answer is NO ONE.  Take it down to 500 plate appearances and you have some scrub on the Padres, Dee Gordon and Billy Hamilton.

If this team aspires to reach higher than they need to stop lowering the bar with Buxton.  His bat is a black hole in the lineup if he strikes out nearly 200 times, can't get on base and has an OPS of .672.  Whether you agree with me or not a .672 OPS for THIS PLAYER and this point in his career is unacceptable.  Can we at least agree on that?

 

 

Buxton is certainly capable of even worse, truly "black hole" type performances in smaller samples, and there are posters here who have argued those bad months have an outsized effect on his overall value. But his overall numbers which you presented, by themselves, don't suggest a black hole that can't be overcome by defense and baserunning.

And conversely, if you subtract out those 7 weeks at the end of 2017 you have some historically dreadful numbers for a player with over 800 plate appearances.  That burst boosts his numbers unbelievably.  If we are going to brush aside 5/6 of his numbers in favor of 1/6 of this numbers then we really need to take a step back and be a little more objective.

I* am not saying he is a bust just yet, but he sure is skating on the edge of it if he doesn't start showing some competence as an offensive player.

I'd rather Garver was the main catcher, but otherwise agree with all this. Great stuff, as always.

I suspect Garver will play more behind the plate than Castro.

I know Buxton has struggled, but I don’t like the idea of him batting 9th, if anything, that should be Castro. And when it comes to Kepler, he and his 11.6% walk rate should be hitting lead off.

The more I think about it, the more I like it.

I hope the front office doesn't botch things with Tyler Austin like they did with Daniel Palka.  Guess who is a left handed power hitter that the Twin's front office let go last year and immediately led the White Sox in home runs last year with 100 fewer at bats than the next closest guy?    Yup.....Palka!   (Palka does have some flaws...but left handed power hitter who is only 27 years old.......)

I hear ya - I'm baffled at how often Aaron Hicks gets mentioned and nobody ever says a peep about Palka. The guy was just tossed on the scrap heap and went on to bash 27 dongs last year. Sure, he might be the next Paul Sorrento, but I think the Twins wouldn't have needed to sign Cron if they'd have somehow hung on to Palka. It's the biggest mistake nobody's talking about.

Would like to see Buck get the CF job all season, no point in giving up. Remember how horrid Tori looked at the beginning? And his speed also helps the Pitching staff... All my ripping of ownership aside, this could* be a sneaky good team.

Once again.  Hunter was not THIS bad, nor was he THIS fussed over.

No player should have the latitude to play with an endless amount of rope.  When you say give him "the whole season" what does it mean?  Does it mean he can hit .194 and play everyday?

That to me is utterly ridiculous.  It shows everyone there is no standard and certain players have certain rules.  We cannot operate like this.  If he is hitting .190 on Mother's Day he goes back to Rochester.  Ultimately it would be nice not to have this problem.