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When it became clear last week that Paul Molitor is planning to put Trevor May in the bullpen, much of the frustration I saw related to the fact that the Twins would opt for a pitcher like Milone in the rotation. The rationale, then, must be that May is likely to be so much better than Milone as a starter that it cancels out the edge gained by utilizing his potent skills as a reliever.
May certainly has more upside, I don't think anyone would deny that. He has the ability to be a No. 2 or No. 3 type in a rotation, and that's hard to envision with Milone. But there is value in a quality fourth or fifth starter, and Milone has very consistently been that.
Here are some reasons that I think people need to appreciate Milone a little more, particularly as it pertains to this discussion:
He has never been bad.
He has had bad stretches. But since coming to the big leagues in 2011, Milone has never truly been bad over the course of a full year. His worst season-ending ERA was 4.19, and that came in 2014 when he finished on an uncharacteristically brutal note after being traded to Minnesota.
He has never had an ERA+ above 105 or below 90, so you pretty much know what you're getting. He's reliably average, and there's value in that; for proof, look no further than the deal Mike Leake signed with the Cardinals this week.
Lineups don't adjust to him.
In contemplating May's merits as a starting pitcher, I think these splits (via Baseball Reference) are worth considering:
That's how May has fared the first, second and third time through the lineup in his MLB career. As you can see, he gets noticeably worse each time through, and what stands out in particular is the K/BB ratios.
(Of course, the sample size for May is quite small – he only has 25 major-league starts, less than a full season's worth.)
Here are the same career splits for Milone:
It looks like opposing hitters jump on him right away occasionally, but they don't adjust to his lower velocity and start crushing him. Quite the opposite.
He doesn't seem to offer much as a reliever.
This is a big piece of this thing that many seem to overlook. We know that May has the ability to be a transformative asset in the bullpen. Do we think Milone can really provide much value there at all, outside of serving as a long reliever or mop-up guy?
Milone doesn't really have the kind of splits that you'd want in a lefty specialist, and my non-scouting eye doesn't see his stuff playing up all that much in short stints. There's just not a lot of benefit to be seen there, which is probably why only nine of his 213 appearances as a pro have been in relief.
Now to be clear, none of this is meant to downplay May, who I still want to see in the rotation long-term. But to suggest that the Twins are shooting themselves in the foot by preferring Milone over him as a starter right now ignores the qualities that the lefty brings to the table, as well as the comparative advantage of moving May to the bullpen instead.
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