Let's Make A Deal (Arbitration Edition)

Glad they went a little higher with Kyle since they took him to arbitration last year.  Was kind of hoping they could work out an extension but I would guess Kyle wants to bet on himself and see what happens.

Looks like most of the numbers worked out about how everyone expected them to,.

And any other team in MLB where the same situation would arise at the same time since those are the rules of arbitration... 

The Twins avoided arbitration and gave him a better deal than he would have gotten had he gone through the process.

It's a "conciliatory gesture" to avoid unpleasantness. Too late. That ship sailed

Updated now for Kepler and May who both agreed to terms.

Sorry, what? How did Trevor May sign for less than the number offered by the Twins? That’s perplexing.

It's a "conciliatory gesture" to avoid unpleasantness. Too late. That ship sailed

The ship doesn't sail for 4 years. If he wants to become rich before then, there is only 1 number he can call.

The ship doesn't sail for 4 years. If he wants to become rich before then, there is only 1 number he can call.

That ship sailed as far as the unpleasantness goes

You have no way of knowing what he would have gotten in arbitration.

Is this a rebuttal?  When you say something like that it sure sounds like one.  So how about this.....

Here is what we do know: Team Buxton took the deal.  If they thought they had a strong chance doing better in arbitration they'd have gone for it.  Dare I say they have more knowledge of the situation?  Traderumors.com projected 1.2 million for him.  Are you a more reliable source than those two entities that are much closer to the situation that either of us? 

If you can explain to me how an arbiter would rule in favor of a deal greater than what Buxton got from the Twins then please explain your rationale behind that one because it really makes no sense to me.

Neither one of us know what he would have received.
Nor do MLB trade rumors. They are guessing, just like us.

With this rationale almost every single article posted here this winter falls under your. "you have no way of knowing" classification.

To post this "you have no way of knowing" at stuff is useless.  EVERYTHING at this time of the year is timber for a discussion.  If you don't agree with me than make your point please.  if you don't have one then have a good day.

"Serious money."

 

This common perception has had a lot of evidence-supported pushback. Buxton is in the situation he finds himself in largely based on what he has thus far accomplished (or not).

 

Which begs the question... how much is a player worth during his arb years strictly based on promise versus actual performance? "Hurt feelings" aside, the fact remains, when/(if) Buck finally has the monster season (7+ fWAR), the big extension offer will come in, and in the process he stands to make back all of the money he "lost" during this first round of arb-eligibility

Sure I get what you are saying.  If he plays well or well enough to be a star payer his arb awards will be large enough to make up some of the money he would have gained being a FA a year earlier but I doubt his arb awards and arb awards in general work out better money wise than being on the market as a free agent and that is what he lost by not being able to play at the end of season.

Was his play great to start the season I would say no.  Did he deserve another shot after being healthy and playing better at AAA I think so.  Does he need to be accountable for what happened absolutely and I haven't heard him say anything to make me think he hasn't accepted responsibility for the way his season went.  The only question he had was why after he was healthy he wasn't called up and the FO seemed pretty quiet on that front.

It is impossible to know how he will do in the future but if you believe he finally hits just a little and he is already "the" or at least "a" premier defensive center fielder in all of baseball then the odds of him generating a large deal seem pretty good to me.  If that were to happen I don't think his arb awards will get him close to what he makes by getting to free agency a year earlier.

If he never is any good then none of this probably really matters.  If anything the Twins would have been more generous to him than he probably deserves.

"Serious money."

 

This common perception has had a lot of evidence-supported pushback. Buxton is in the situation he finds himself in largely based on what he has thus far accomplished (or not).

 

Which begs the question... how much is a player worth during his arb years strictly based on promise versus actual performance? "Hurt feelings" aside, the fact remains, when/(if) Buck finally has the monster season (7+ fWAR), the big extension offer will come in, and in the process he stands to make back all of the money he "lost" during this first round of arb-eligibility.

I see, I misunderstood your post.  So you are saying if he does finally prove himself the Twins could give him an extension that would make up for the lost year of service time.  That is something I hadn't considered and would work well.  Play well then get rewarded properly.  Yep that makes sense too.  If he performs everything could take care of itself if both sides can agree.

Well, you're kinda right... but mostly wrong, honestly.

 

 

 

It's easy to forget that while you can score runs in baseball with big hits, you can also prevent them by taking away said hits. And a glove like Buxton does that almost with clockwork precision.

The numbers don't agree.  Simply put, he isn't getting enough opportunities to use that talent and counterbalance the weak bat.  There are small zones on the field where Buxton can exhibit his special skills and balls just don't get hit there often enough.  If that happened with regularity and was something as common as his turn in the order coming up then you would have something.  It is not.  Furthermore, hen you have a spot in the lineup where a player provides little hope it makes it so easy on the opposing pitcher and manager.  It's almost a domino effect in some games where the opposing team feels like they are facing the pitcher's spot in the lineup.  He has been that bad outside of his hot almost two months in 2017.  Look at the 800 other at bats besides that hot streak.  That is A LOT of terrible offense.

And instead of using hypotheticals look at how many putouts he makes.  I'll use the only year he was able to play everyday.  Even in 2017 where he played out of his mind in the field he managed 24 defensive runs saved according to that metric (if you take that as gospel).  He made 274 plays in 1143 innings in the field.  That is a play every 4.17 innings and a large majority of those plays are routine plays for major league centerfielders.  Another problem with Buxton are the injuries due to his style of play PLUS the migraine issues.  How long can he play with this reckless abandon before the machine tilts?  It is a house of cards, in my opinion,

I get it.  You want to be positive and you don't want to give up on the guy.  The hard cold reality is while he is a top shelf fielder that isn't making up for how bad he hits.  It makes up for part of it, but certainly not all of it.  We can quibble about how much exactly but those things are so hard to determine.  In the end, give me a player who can hit the three run homer over a guy who might hurt himself (again) crashing into a wall attempting to rob another of 3 run homer.  The guy with the bat is going to have more opportunities to help his team than a centerfielder who makes two about two putouts a game.

The numbers don't agree.  Simply put, he isn't getting enough opportunities to use that talent and counterbalance the weak bat.  There are small zones on the field where Buxton can exhibit his special skills and balls just don't get hit there often enough.  If that happened with regularity and was something as common as his turn in the order coming up then you would have something.  It is not.  Furthermore, hen you have a spot in the lineup where a player provides little hope it makes it so easy on the opposing pitcher and manager.  It's almost a domino effect in some games where the opposing team feels like they are facing the pitcher's spot in the lineup.  He has been that bad outside of his hot almost two months in 2017.  Look at the 800 other at bats besides that hot streak.  That is A LOT of terrible offense.

 

And instead of using hypotheticals look at how many putouts he makes.  I'll use the only year he was able to play everyday.  Even in 2017 where he played out of his mind in the field he managed 24 defensive runs saved according to that metric (if you take that as gospel).  He made 274 plays in 1143 innings in the field.  That is a play every 4.17 innings and a large majority of those plays are routine plays for major league centerfielders.  Another problem with Buxton are the injuries due to his style of play PLUS the migraine issues.  How long can he play with this reckless abandon before the machine tilts?  It is a house of cards, in my opinion,

 

I get it.  You want to be positive and you don't want to give up on the guy.  The hard cold reality is while he is a top shelf fielder that isn't making up for how bad he hits.  It makes up for part of it, but certainly not all of it.  We can quibble about how much exactly but those things are so hard to determine.  In the end, give me a player who can hit the three run homer over a guy who might hurt himself (again) crashing into a wall attempting to rob another of 3 run homer.  The guy with the bat is going to have more opportunities to help his team than a centerfielder who makes two about two putouts a game.

This is not counting the number of probable doubles Buxton turns into singles and keeps runners from advancing, saving runs. Or the extra outs the pitcher has to get, because your defender does not make a play where others should. 

Your post is almost like defense does not matter, I have seen the simulation run in stratomatic baseball about 30 some years ago.  The number of extra outs and runs this player gave up put his club into the 5+ runs against category every game.  That is unsustainable in baseball (or you win about 60 games). Yes, you can hide bad defense at some positions, but the middle of the diamond will cost you a lot of the time.

Defense is more than the number of hits allowed, it is also how many of those hits are for less bases than your poor defensive player will allow, this keeps double plays in order or at least requires more than one more single to score the runner.  Baseball stats take range into effect, but do not know if they calculate how many bases a batted ball should get and how many hits it takes to score a run with a premium defender at the position.  In the infield, you also have to include balls knocked down preventing other base runners from taking 2 bases instead on 1.  These are big differences and I do not know how much of this is calculated in the runs saved category. 

Defense is huge. The difference between extra outs and outs taken away play huge roles in crooked numbers and crooked numbers play huge roles in wins and losses. 

 

Defense is huge. 

 

However... there are some amazing defensive CF'er's on the beach because they can't hit enough to out play the average defensive CF. 

 

Buxton has to hit. 

The hard cold truth is that his glove cannot do enough to counterbalance his horrific offense.  We need to stop pushing his defense to the front of every conversation about him.  Why sugarcoat things?

Centerfield is a very important position, but there are only a few small zones on the field where he can showcase his stuff.  That just doesn't happen often enough.  Historically CFs average a bit more than 2 putouts a game.  That is about what Buxton averaged in 2017.  I put the numbers up already.

I have gotten a couple of responses from posters who think I don't value defense.  Not true.

More like I understand that one player can only do so much defensively.  Not his fault he isn't going to get enough chances to neutralize his poor bat, that is just how it is

"Serious money."

 

This common perception has had a lot of evidence-supported pushback. Buxton is in the situation he finds himself in largely based on what he has thus far accomplished (or not).

 

Which begs the question... how much is a player worth during his arb years strictly based on promise versus actual performance? "Hurt feelings" aside, the fact remains, when/(if) Buck finally has the monster season (7+ fWAR), the big extension offer will come in, and in the process he stands to make back all of the money he "lost" during this first round of arb-eligibility.

In reality, the “extra year” probably will end up helping Buxton financially.

Let’s say Buxton continues to be all glove, no hit (OPS+ in the 80s). He’ll have an extra year of arbitration instead of being a free agent. As a free agent with that resume, he’d be lucky to get a guaranteed MLB contract. In arbitration, he figures to get steady raises. Of course, if Buxton is still OPS+ in the 80 range, the Twins could (and probably should) release or non-tender him before his 4th year of arbitration.

Conversely, let’s say he gets it together and maybe OPS+ of 100-110 for his final 2 years of arb. Well, if he was a FA a year earlier, would a team be convinced the one season was real or would he have to settle for a “prove it” deal? But with that second year of success, a team - likely several teams - would be willing to roll the dice. Now he hits FA at a still young 29 at his apex and can probably pick his team.

The only way this ends up costing Buxton any serious amount of money is if he does well the next three years and then gets hurt in 2022.

It should be noted that if he does well the next 3 years, it’s pretty likely he is offered an extension. If he doesn’t take it, well. That’s on him.