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  • Lance Lynn to the Twins?


    Andrew Thares

    After coming up short in their quest to sign Yu Darvish, the Twins were forced to turn their focus toward other pitchers on the free agent and trade markets in order to fill out their rotation. They have since added two starting pitchers, by taking a flyer on Anibal Sanchez, and making a trade with the Tampa Bay Rays for Jake Odorizzi.

    Theses moves added just under $9M to the Twins 2018 payroll, bringing the total to roughly $118M. However, it is reasonable to assume that if the Twins were willing to offer Yu Darvish a $20M+ per year deal, they might have more money available to make another addition to the rotation.

    Image courtesy of David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

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    If the Twins were to make another move, many would assume it would be one of Jake Arrieta, Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn. According to a source close to Jon Heyman, he believes that Lance Lynn is a “pitcher of interest” for the Twins, and that he is favored by the Twins among the top three.

    The addition of Lance Lynn could be the move that takes the Twins rotation from one filled with question marks, to one with solidified depth. Right now, the Twins rotation to start the season would be Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson, Alberto Mejia, and one of Phil Hughes, Tyler Duffey or Anibal Sanchez.

    Adding Lynn would give the Twins five starters that they can trust in their rotation until Ervin Santana returns, and provide added depth if one of the other starters goes down with an injury during the season.

    Lance Lynn had a strong performance in 2017, posting a 3.43 ERA (4.75 xFIP) over 186.1 innings, after coming back from Tommy John surgery. However, the inflated xFIP, along with a career low .244 BABIP last season cause some hesitation in thinking that Lynn will be able to replicate those numbers again in 2018.

    Another area of concern for Lance Lynn is his fastball velocity. Lynn is a pitcher who relies heavily on his four-seam, two-seam and cut fastballs, and last year he saw his average fastball velocity drop from the 92.4 MPH it was at in 2015, before his Tommy John surgery, down to 91.3 MPH. A 1.1 MPH drop may not sound like a lot, but when a pitcher is already throwing in the low 90’s every MPH is critical, and if that number were to drop any lower it could be detrimental for Lynn.

    There is one bright spot for Lynn coming off of 2017, and that was his 0.304 xwOBA. This ranked 45th amongst the 118 pitchers who threw at least 2,000 pitches last season. This suggests that Lynn was a slightly above average starting pitcher last season, and backs up his 3.43 ERA a lot better than his other peripheral metrics do.

    So, if the Twins really do have aspirations of signing Lance Lynn, what would it take to get him? At the beginning of the offseason MLB Trade Rumors predicted that Lance Lynn would receive an offer of 4-years and $56M. Given the way the market has panned out this winter, it might be easy to assume that Lynn would receive an offer south of that mark. However, unlike Darvish, I don’t think there will be too big of a drop from this price, if there is one at all. A big reason for this being that earlier in the offseason Tyler Chatwood signed a 3-year $38M deal with the Cubs.

    Given that Chatwood was considered to be a step down from Lynn entering this offseason, it would be hard to believe that Lynn would accept a deal that is equal to or less than that of Chatwood’s. If this is the case, it doesn’t leave the Twins a lot of wiggle room with either years or dollars for them to come down from the 4-years and $56M projection.

    Additionally, Lance Lynn received a qualifying offer from the Cardinals. If the Twins were to sign Lynn they would have to give up their third highest pick in the 2018 First Year Player Draft (75th overall). Though, unlike previous years under the old CBA, the Twins would have had to give up their top unprotected pick (20th overall). So, by comparison, giving up the 75th pick in the draft for an established major league pitcher isn’t a terrible trade-off, but it is still a factor that the Twins front office will need to take into consideration before making an offer for Lynn.

    Personally, I would like to see the Twins add another piece to their rotation, but the addition of Lance Lynn, or Cobb and Arrieta for that matter, seems a bit risky to me. If they are able to swoop in and get Lynn at an absolute bargain, I think they should make the move, otherwise they might be better off staying put, and look to invest more money into free agency next offseason.

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    Santana should only be out for around 1/6 of the season.    There was some analysis about his use of the slider that explained his success last year but even with regression he should be pretty good.    Odorizzi should give us what Gibson gave us the last half of last year.   I expect at least the same from Gibson as last year but last year he was our 3rd best and if our third best becomes our 4th best that is a good thing.   I don't know how  Meija had a 4.5 ERA last year which is the same as Hughes career ERA.   I don't know how he doesn't end up in the top 5 on the depth charts.   Either way the improvement should be in the middle to back end and there should be improvement.   

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    That's a completely laughable offer.

    Yet, we're told it's ridiculous to suggest that they knowingly offered Darvish a contract they knew he wouldn't accept.

    Both offers were low ball offers. In Darvish case it was still over 100 million. I know now is the time to be shopping but i would hope the Twins would know the market a little better then that. While Logan is getting 0 interest. There is atleast interest in signing the thre remaining pitchers. I would think a 1 year 13-14 million with 1 or 2 million incentives should be an offer that can land one.

     

    I may wait a week or two before offering to see Hughes and Sanchez more. They may work as the 5th starter for a while till Hughes tires and Gonsalvez or Romero or Littell is ready to come up

    Edited by Brandon
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    Anyone else find it interesting that the Twins would be willing to offer Lance Lynn $10-$12 million over two years – when he received a qualifying offer of $17.4 million for one year, which, of course, he rejected?

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    That's a completely laughable offer.

    Yet, we're told it's ridiculous to suggest that they knowingly offered Darvish a contract they knew he wouldn't accept.

    $12M/2 years sounds low but it's better than $0M/0 years which appears to be the offer from just about everyone else.

     

    Lynn's numbers and his abilities look destined to flop, at least in the AL.

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    That's a completely laughable offer.

     

     

    Why even bother filling out the paperwork for an offer that low?

     

    To be fair, it probably wasn't any kind of formal offer with paperwork, and it could have been expressed more as a limit for the team rather than a specific valuation of the player. For example, they could have been having a discussion with Lynn's agent, and said they'd be open to adding another SP -- but with their current payroll, they're not comfortable going beyond 2/12, and Lynn's agent told them that wouldn't work for him.

     

    The weird thing about it, though, is that it was for 2 years. A 1 year, ~$12 mil offer would seem more likely, I would think.

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    I'm sure they don't ever fully disclose all terms of any contract being offered. 2 years/12 million might be what was guaranteed. Incentives might have bumped it to 12 million/year. There might have been a 3rd year player option. Who knows. No use speculating with so many uncertainties. 

     

    I'm just glad we are still having conversations with SP free agents. Something is going to happen. Soon. I can feel it. 

    Edited by cmoss84
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    I honestly have no idea what to think of Sanchez. He has lost a bit of velo but nothing to the degree of, say, Hughes (~2mph for Sanchez, more like 3-4mph for Hughes).

     

    He's only 34 years old, which isn't ancient. Unlike Hughes, if he is able to gain back even 1mph of velocity, he has the ability to rebound pretty significantly.

     

    But I have no idea what caused the loss of velocity and whether it's anything that can ever rebound.

     

    I'm interested in seeing what happens, but not particularly bullish on anything good coming from the signing.

     

    If you want to do a make good deal, Sanchez is a far better bet than some of the guys we've seen brought into the org over the last few years.

     

    At least with Sanchez, he pitched like a #1 for a few years... maybe even an ace depending on the bazillion definitions of the term used here. While unlikely, it doesn't take smoking copious amounts of illegal substances to argue that it's possible he's healthy and able to have an above average SP season for a song... If this team wants to do something other than a playoff in the wild card game, they need their back end of the rotation to not be awful... yeah, we need the ace... but the key to winning 95 games is a bit more than not having to pray for rain in the back of the rotation. 

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    Lynn's numbers and his abilities look destined to flop, at least in the AL.

    I don't know. He's not a Nolasco or a Pelfrey -- Lynn's last 3 active seasons are 133, 129, and 124 ERA+. Full seasons too. Ervin 2016-2017 and Duffey's 10 start rookie season are the only Twins SP who has touched those run prevention figures since Scott Baker back in 2011.

     

    Lynn's FIP trend wasn't good in 2017, and he certainly wasn't my first choice this winter, and I'm not sure I'd really want to add him for much after adding Odorizzi -- but I think he's got the potential to be a good bargain for somebody.

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    I'm sure they don't ever fully disclose all terms of any contract being offered. 2 years/12 million might be what was guaranteed. Incentives might have bumped it to 12 million/year. There might have been a 3rd year player option. Who knows. No use speculating with so many uncertainties.

    For certain players and deals, I think these extra contract clauses would be more relevant. But Lynn is an established, healthy starting pitcher. I think the guaranteed years/dollars (or absence thereof!) are significant enough on their own to judge the offer.

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    $12M/2 years sounds low but it's better than $0M/0 years which appears to be the offer from just about everyone else.

    Lynn's numbers and his abilities look destined to flop, at least in the AL.

    Maybe this is the wrong way to look at things, but the division he pitched in had some pretty good hitting teams (Cubs/Reds/Brewers) and he pitched pretty well against some AL teams as well in inter league play. I would be confident when he pitches against the white sox, tigers, royals, and most AL teams. Much more confident than when our current 3-5 pitchers are on the bump. 

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    My prediction when Anibal was signed that Hughes and Sanchez were competing for one spot in the rotation.

    I disagree. Hughes is healthy, has a clear preference for starting, and we still have 2/26 committed to him. Especially with Ervin out, I think he's basically guaranteed a month or two in the rotation to open the season (barring injury, of course).

     

    Sanchez is the "6th starter" right now, insurance in case another SP gets injured this spring (so we don't have to force Duffey or Slegers into that role). I'd guess Sanchez also has an outside chance at taking Mejia's spot with a really good showing this spring, but I think Hughes is pretty safe for now -- what else could they realistically do with him?

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    I honestly have no idea what to think of Sanchez. He has lost a bit of velo but nothing to the degree of, say, Hughes (~2mph for Sanchez, more like 3-4mph for Hughes).

     

    He's only 34 years old, which isn't ancient. Unlike Hughes, if he is able to gain back even 1mph of velocity, he has the ability to rebound pretty significantly.

     

    But I have no idea what caused the loss of velocity and whether it's anything that can ever rebound.

     

    I'm interested in seeing what happens, but not particularly bullish on anything good coming from the signing.

    I'd like to see Sanchez take up Pilates. Everybody should, except me. ;-)

     

    Pilates is HARD.

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    If you want to do a make good deal, Sanchez is a far better bet than some of the guys we've seen brought into the org over the last few years.

     

    At least with Sanchez, he pitched like a #1 for a few years... maybe even an ace depending on the bazillion definitions of the term used here. While unlikely, it doesn't take smoking copious amounts of illegal substances to argue that it's possible he's healthy and able to have an above average SP season for a song... If this team wants to do something other than a playoff in the wild card game, they need their back end of the rotation to not be awful... yeah, we need the ace... but the key to winning 95 games is a bit more than not having to pray for rain in the back of the rotation. 

    The most unfortunate thing about the Sanchez signing was its timing, and that's not really fair. Had it come after the Odorizzi trade, we all probably mumble "okay, that makes sense" and get on with our days.

     

    Because the Sanchez signing is the type of low risk, decent reward that mid-market teams should pursue. If you see a guy who has the stuff and ability to rebound into being a productive player and can be had on the cheap, give it a shot. There's so little to lose and quite a bit to gain.

     

    The 2012-2015 Twins needed a lot more Sanchez-type signings and a lot less Correia-type signings.

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    Yeah that's the deal I signed out of little league and I'm still kicking myself more than 25 years later. Bet I could hit a baseball over that mountain.

    Reminds me:

    Why did the macho man kick apart the mountain? 

    It was in his way.

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    Jim Bowden 

     

    Several teams remain in on Cobb or Lynn including: Orioles, Phillies, Twins and Brewers but all are waiting for 3-Year deals under $50m so they don’t have to give up draft pick compensation according to sources...asking price remains above for now

    Bowden is wrong here.

     

    The $50 mil threshold only determines what kind of compensation pick the other team will receive.

     

    The pick that the signing team loses is not affected by the contract size.

     

    (And the picks aren't directly transferred -- the Twins, for example, could forfeit a third-rounder, but the Rays could receive a comp pick between the first and second round.)

     

    https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-qualifying-offer-rules-explained/c-259650658

     

    https://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3512

     

    If you think about it, it makes sense. Otherwise there would be all kinds of questions about "gaming the system" -- $49 mil "guarantees" plus easily reached incentives, player options, etc. to avoid the $50 mil threshold. The Rockies wouldn't have signed Wade Davis for $52 mil, for example!

    Edited by spycake
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    I don't know. He's not a Nolasco or a Pelfrey -- Lynn's last 3 active seasons are 133, 129, and 124 ERA+. Full seasons too. Ervin 2016-2017 and Duffey's 10 start rookie season are the only Twins SP who has touched those run prevention figures since Scott Baker back in 2011.

     

    Lynn's FIP trend wasn't good in 2017, and he certainly wasn't my first choice this winter, and I'm not sure I'd really want to add him for much after adding Odorizzi -- but I think he's got the potential to be a good bargain for somebody.

    Maybe some team will value him on his ERA+ but so far it doesn't look like it.

     

    All he really has is basically three different fastballs, a four seamer a two seamer and a cutter. When he started out no one thought he'd stay in the rotation because of his lack of secondary pitches, so credit to him that he's made it this far.

     

    But with no real offspeed or breaking pitch, only average velocity on his fastball and an alarming reliance on the sinker, his usefulness doesn't look likely to continue, at least not to me.

     

    I also don't think it's a coincidence that every free agent starter left has a very high sinker usage. I don't think I'm the only one who thinks it tends to be counter-productive when used in high doses, particularly now that nearly every batter has changed his swing to avoid hitting grounders.

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    I disagree. Hughes is healthy, has a clear preference for starting, and we still have 2/26 committed to him. Especially with Ervin out, I think he's basically guaranteed a month or two in the rotation to open the season (barring injury, of course).

     

    Sanchez is the "6th starter" right now, insurance in case another SP gets injured this spring (so we don't have to force Duffey or Slegers into that role). I'd guess Sanchez also has an outside chance at taking Mejia's spot with a really good showing this spring, but I think Hughes is pretty safe for now -- what else could they realistically do with him?

    So far Hughes has exceeded expectations by actually being able to pitch. I view the 'competition' almost as a competition to be healthy at the end of spring training. If both of them are then I think Mejia is the most likely loser since he has options. Not fair really since I think he is more likely to be better than either this year but it is always better to have more choices for the rotation than fewer.

     

    Anyone else find it interesting that the Twins would be willing to offer Lance Lynn $10-$12 million over two years – when he received a qualifying offer of $17.4 million for one year, which, of course, he rejected?

    It really isn't surprising at all. The 17.4M QO is no longer available and other players have struggled to sign deals that matched the yearly value of the QO. Those players usually had an issue with the punishing draft pick compensation attached to the signing but this winter has marked a significant hesitation from teams to sign 30 something yr old FA's to 4-5 year contracts.

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    Given how Gibson made an actual, trackable change in his approach late last season, I think he's almost a given for the rotation. More than Sanchez, anyway.

    Oops, my mistake on that one. For some bizarre reason I wrote Gibson when I meant Hughes. Time for me to cut back on this beer consumption!

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