Jose Berrios Is Tipping His Pitches

How is it that one pitcher’s change-up can go from a major weapon in the minors to such a crushable pitch overnight?

In September 2015 MLB.com’s Bernie Pleskoff, a former scout for the Astros and Mariners, called Berrios’ change-up his best pitch. “I believe his change-up is his best overall pitch,” Pleskoff wrote. “It's the pitch that can gain Berrios a great advantage over the hitter. He is especially tough on left-handed hitters when his change-up sinks and he changes the eye level and balance of the hitter.”

This year in AAA Berrios struck out 125 in 111 innings in part because of the devastating nature of his change-up. Hitters said the arm action mimicked his fastball’s release and dropped precipitously, inciting tons of missed bats in the minors. In fact, Baseball America said it was the best version of that pitch in the International League in 2016. And yet KABOOM.

Scouts and hitters raved about the action of Jose Berrios’ change-up so the current results are clearly not based on it being an inferior pitch. So why is it that hitters are not chasing it out of the strike zone and obliterating the ones that do stay in the zone to pieces? Why has it worked at lower levels but not the big leagues?

When a pitcher is tipping his pitches, there usually is a tell of some sort. Sometimes it is small like a different turn of the glove at the set position or a slightly different hand break. During the 1987 World Series, the scouting report on Frank Viola was that he held his fastball high in the glove and his change-up down. Other times it is hard to ignore, like holding the ball in the set position differently (such as holding it up by the face for a fastball or down at the belt for a breaking ball). After watching all the available video at BaseballSavant.com of him throwing his various pitches on loop for several weeks, I was stumped. Berrios did not exhibit any of those traits.

Another possibility was how he delivered it. Last season Chattanooga’s manager Doug Mientkiewicz noted that he thought Berrios was telegraphing his change-up too much in 2014. Fast forward to this season, PitcherList.com did a high definition GIF breakdown of his first MLB start, categorizing each pitch type. With his change-ups, you notice deceleration of his body and he cuts off his finish differently than for his fastball and curve ball. Although I did consider this phenomenon as a potential source for tipping, ultimately Berrios’ deceleration happens after he releases the ball. Hitters would not be able to see this cue and adjust at the same time.

As I stared at the computer screen trying to see the 3D sailboat in the video, it was only after seeing a still photo of Berrios pitching that the answer was so obvious. Let’s see if you can figure it out. Take a look at these two grotesquely blurry zoomed in images. Do you notice anything different between the two?

Give up?

On the one on the left, you will see a finger (his pinky) sticking up above the ball. That’s his change-up. On the right, you see all of Berrios’ fingers wrapped behind the ball. That’s the fastball. Take a look at a more high quality image from a front angle:

Berrios has been alerting opponents to what pitch he is going to throw behind his own back.

Naturally, this seems too easy. After all, I’ve paused everything at the right moment. Would batters really be able to pick up that tell in the fraction of a second Berrios flashes the ball behind his back?

Watch Berrios’ bullpen session from March (

For hitters who have elite vision -- the same that claim they can pick up the red or white spin of the ball quickly -- this brief flash of color provides that all-important cue on which pitch speed to expect. For an experienced player like Torii Hunter, who was calling out Berrios’ pitches during a spring training live BP session, this seems easy to pick up on.

It is no small wonder Berrios’ change-up has been teed off on and it also explains why his fastball has been hammered as well. Given how quickly video at the major league level can be passed around, it makes complete sense as to why he has been exposed with the Twins versus in the minor leagues.

The Twins have said that they want Berrios to work on bringing the ball toward center field instead of toward first base but the way it is presented through the media, the instruction sounds more like a mechanical adjustment in hopes of better command and less like keeping teams from picking up on his pitches. Then again, the Twins may be well aware of the situation and are trying not to draw attention to it from other teams. (If that is the case...sorry, yo.)

To be sure, changing an arm path is not an easy task. Pitchers have been told for years that certain delivery styles can be dangerous but they rarely make that adjustment because their current model is so committed to muscle memory. Given his innings total, it is unlikely that Berrios will have any time in winter ball to work on that, so the best will be bullpen side-sessions and some additional work in the offseason before getting several much needed months of rest.

Don't be fooled by the early results: Berrios possesses some outstanding stuff. His biggest priority is to wrangle in command of his fastball in order to set up his secondary offerings. Throwing strikes is critical but from the mental side, it can been frustrating to throw what you feel is a solid pitch in a good location only to have it redirected back twice as fast. If he is also able to keep from alerting hitters to which pitch may be coming, that would be a significant improvement as well.