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  • Jordan Schafer: Breakout or Bust


    jorgenswest

    Jordan Schafer is at his 4th stop having moved from Atlanta to Houston to Atlanta prior to being claimed by Minnesota. He enters next season as a 28 year old with a significant 1398 plate appearances. Is there a chance that the once highly rated prospect can turn it around at age 28? Has it happened before?

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    I used Baseball Reference's play index seeking an answer. I wanted a group of outfielders that had a similar number of plate appearances and performances through age 27. A group where Schafer sits somewhere near the middle according to career OPS+ and plate appearances. It turns out pretty rare for an outfielder to be given around 1400 plate appearances at Schafer's level of production. I had to go back to 1987 to find 11 comps.

    sml_gallery_74_63_10146.png

    Several of the players listed above have characteristics in speed and ability that allowed them to play all three outfield spots. All had played for multiple teams. Their careers through age 27 were very similar to Schafer.

    What about after age 27 and their peak values?

    sml_gallery_74_63_9076.png

    • Brady Anderson!
    • 5 of the 11 had careers with at least 1000 more plate appearances.
    • 2 of the 11 performed better after age 27.

    I wondered if there was another Brady Anderson if I searched back further. I went back 50 years. We can add Boots Day, Tony Scott, Herm Winningham, Luis Melendez, Rick Bosetti, Marvell Wynne, Hector Cruz and George Wright. Not a Brady Anderson among them. It appears that almost all outfielders by age 28 and 1200+ plate appearances have established their skill level.

    What do the Twins do with Schafer? Should they tender him a contract and go to arbitration? Do they plan for him to be on the 25 roster next year, or do they look elsewhere?

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    As a fourth outfielder, Scafer is just fine. The problem is when you rely on someone of his ilk for more than a platoon/bench role. He has the tools to do what you need from a bench guy: he runs fast, plays acceptable defense, and can fill several roles late in the game.

    I'll agree that if Schaeffer is getting 200-250 AB in a season that is fine. If he is getting more than 400 I would be concerned unless he is hitting .300ish and OBP is around .350+.  His speed will take care of itself as long as he can get on base.  As a back up he can also be a pinch runner.  There is a lot of uses for him as a player on our team.  He adds lots more value with a .350ish OBP and the higher that is the more playing time he will get. 

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