Jhoan Duran Headlines Twins Roster Additions

Agreed that a bad team should take Jax and I would root for him. That’s a tough one but I agree with the decision. Javier - just got a feeling that is going to come back and bite us but I understand trying to sneak him through. He’s never healthy

Wander Javier is worth gambling losing in the Rule 5 draft even though I'm a big fan of his potential.  After his last 2 injury marred seasons I'd be surprised if someone grabbed him.  This should give him a year back with the Twins to rebuild some value.  I agree with Mike on Jax and i could even see someone grabbing Luis Rijo.  

Rijo and Javier are unlikely as they both finished at Low A. They are too far away to know if they are worth keeping in the majors all year unused to send back to the minors and occupy a 40 man spot.

Jax on the other hand seems the most likely to be picked although even that is fairly unlikely given his struggles at AAA and low upside.

While I like Jax he seems to be 5th starter material and with K's being low and other guys that look like they might have higher ceilings not far behind him I can see the Twins taking the risk.  It wasn't that long ago that a lot of this board berated the previous FO for hanging onto pitch to contact guys versus stirke out pitchers so I am not gonna complain too much about this one.  That being said I feel like his stuff might play up in the pen and he has good control so he could be targeted by a rebuilding team.

A little more concerned about Rio.  He has some really good secondaries but doesn't seem to have the velocity yet.  Pretty young too and likely not able to help a MLB team at all.  So hoping he gets passed by.

Also wondering about Moran.  His WHIP is high so hopefully other teams leave him alone.

Wells is a wild card at this point since he is coming off of injury so guessing team will pass on him as well.

Only real surprise for me is Celestino.  He must be better than I realized.  Maybe his defense is just too good to risk losing him to a team using him as 4th outfielder this year.  I don't think his bat will play in MLB yet.

The Raley add is redundant as the 40 man currently stands today. Pretty good bet 1 or 2 corner OFs are traded this winter.

Jax is probably the only other player who will get selected in the rule 5 draft. Javier sticks and hopefully makes the decision more difficult next year.

Totally agree with you.  They can't keep that many 4th outfielders on the 40 man as they are likely going to need more room for pitching and another catcher.  While l like Lamonte's eye at the plate he doesn't seem to have much power.  I think he is the guy to try and trade.  I guess we will see what happens but it doesn't make sense to carry all of them especially with Kirilloff, Rooker and Larnach not that far away.

Duran and Graterol have a higehr ceiling than Jax. Smeltzer, Poppen and Thiroe are ahead of him.

A good story, the military guy drafted and able to play during his service time. Some team will grab him.

The Twins have add to an abundance of outfielders. Decisions have to be made on Cron and also the status of Rosario. So Raley protect them as someone ready to step up, if you feel Cave and Wade aren't the future. Celestino could be the future and one would like to think that he could come north as a fourth outfielder if injuries happen...playing the corners OR centerfield.

You want a free $4 million player...grab Javier and make him your 26th. Cheap investment for Rule 5 monies. Who knows, out of the gate he might surprise a non-contending team that can take the chance putting him on the field.

Hat tip to Seth.  Pretty much nailed the analysis of the givens, probables, and bubbles.

With the 26 man roster, it may be easier for rebuilding teams to stash a player but I just don’t see it happening with a player that hasn’t been above A ball so I don’t think Javier or Rijo will be taken and kept all year, but I can see Jax being stashed away. I can also see a rebuilding team giving Wiel a spin and seeing what he does. I mean, why not? It’s a free trial and worst case scenario you send him back to the Twins AAA. Same scenario for Reed.

So no Tyler Wells? That surprises me.

He might not be the same pitcher after surgery and he wasn't a sure thing to make it to MLB even after his great 2018.  He would be a big gamble for a team to take when they can probably find other pitchers not recovering from injury (less risk).  Personally I think he bounces back but hard to say how long it will take.

They could have probably slipped Raley & Blankenhorn through the rule 5 draft. It's good to see that they have 3 open spots for free agents.

Jax is the only surprise name left out, in my opinion. He doesn't have the upside a lot of the other guys on this list have, so I suppose he might make it out unscathed on draft night. 

Celestino is the only one I'm surprised was added. He's probably not going to be ready until 2022 at earliest and 2022 will be his final option year. He was bad at Cedar Rapids for a good 3-4 months last year. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets DFA'd before making it to the majors.

They should be able to sneak Rijo and Javier through the draft and wait until next year to roster them. 

seeing Raley make it, they are almost certainly going to trade/release another outfielder this winter.  Should be interesting.

seeing Raley make it, they are almost certainly going to trade/release another outfielder this winter.  Should be interesting.

Especially with Rooker at AAA and then Larnach and Kiriloff at AA, it seems like something will have to give at some point. That's not even to mention the other 4th OF candidates like Cave and Wade.

I find it exciting that the Twins farm system has so many quality prospects that makes for difficult decisions. Falvine are really building something special.

Assume you're talking about Luis Rijo. He was hitting 95-96 in 2019, so that's pretty good for a 20-21 year old. 

Isn't it a little bit dangerous to leave a guy like that unprotected then?  He might be able to hold down a bullpen spot for the year at the MLB level and then they could work him back as a starter.  He is young enough and talented enough it looks like.  Granted his K 9 isn't that great for his level but it isn't bad either.

Don't know what I expected, but considering 5 or 6 was all they could protect this seems reasonable.

My first observation was that 4 of the 5 joined the Twins via trade during the 2018 season.  Don't know if there was a prejudice to protect players they brought into the system.  But adding Smeltzer and Alcala earlier means that a year later 6 players on the 40-man were brought in via trade.  That's a heck of a success story looking back at those trades.

Although there usually are surprises, I see three players who have a real chance of being selected in the draft, Javier, Jax and Rijo.  Expect that Rijo could be the one most likely to come back and haunt us.  The player I will be most disappointed in losing, however, is Jax.  Hopefully, we get lucky and none of them are selected...which I suspect is wishful thinking on my part.

When you take a look at the roster it appears to be the strongest roster I have seen since I began following these guys however many years ago.  Great position players with reserves that can play AND exciting prospects already on the roster. 

All that remains is filling out the starting rotation, adding a good lefty for the bullpen and a backup catcher.  Considering that could be up to five adds, there could still be another player or two removed from the 40-man or exiting via a trade should one include a current member of the team.

Can we still add a player to the 40-man?  If we decide that we want to protect Rijo, can we add him yet or is this locked until after the rule 5 draft?

Kepler was added after the 2013 season, and he didn't debut until the final weeks of 2015. 40-man roster spots aren't just for guys who can contribute next year. It's also for those types who can be big-time impact players in the next couple of seasons. Kepler and Polanco were both added after 2013 in Cedar Rapids... Polanco wasn't a regular until 2016. 

 

Of course, a few years before that, they added Deibinson Romero and Estarlin de los Santos after their 2008 season in Beloit. Doesn't always work out. 

Mentioning names like that also points out, Seth, how much the Twins 40-man roster has improved.  Isn't it exciting to have this problem.  Unfortunately excitement will lead to sadness on draft day when someone is plucked from the organization.