It’s Time to Turn the Page on the Bomba Squad

It was a fun nickname, but it's time to move on. Having strong hitters who can consistently hit HRs is a viable strategy, but when most everyone is swinging for the fences and consistently coming short, then it's a problem. 

  The swing-for-the-fences approach works fine during the regular season when you see teams' 4th and 5th starters.  It works when teams are trying to manage bullpens and use all of their arms.  The last two years, the Twins did nothing in the playoffs....when they only saw the best pitchers the Yankees and Astros had.  There needs to be a tweak in offensive approach.  And maybe see what it'd take to bring James Rowson back! 

...with the decrease in fastball % and the increase in spin rates and spin pitch %, the organization needs to respond.  Shorter swings and more contact please.  And maybe a little more "small ball" when the bats are struggling.

People aren’t frustrated that they didn’t repeat the historic home run numbers. People are pissed that this team can’t win a big game. People are sick of the FOs (two FOs) half-assery dating back to 2001, and a manager who thinks he’s analytically cute

I still can’t figure how anyone on earth can think pulling Jose Berrios at 5 IP, 2 H, 2 BB, 1 R and 75 for Cody freaking Stashak and Kenta Maeda in the middle of 2H shutout in a playoff game is a good idea (but, he’ll let Maeda throw 200 pitches ina meaningless regular season game for a good story). Or, pinch running a visibly ill Byron Buxton to lay in the middle of infield. Or, pinch hitting for Ryan Jeffers with Mitch Garver, who is worse both offensively and defensively. Or, playing Alex Kirilloff in an elimination playoff game, but not giving him a single regular season AB (thanks for that, FO, hope that service time comes in handy when we suck 5 years from now). Or, batting a visibly hobbled and powerless Luis Arraez in the leadoff spot to go 0 for everything. Or, handing Rogers and Romo the ball in the 9th in back to back games after being awful for an extended period of time, but not getting Clippard an inning? The list goes on. When are we going to admit Baldelli sucks, and people only want him to be good because he’s a poor man’s Bill Walton? Remember when people were running Molitor out of town? I don’t recall his list of absurd managerial decisions being even close to Baldelli’s. Play your best players. Pitch your best pitchers. Stop thinking you’re smarter than the 130 years of the game because an intern with a graphing calculator showed you a graph and a number with a lot of decimal places. Analytics have their place, but throw those damn reports and cute suggestions out the window come playoff time.

If this club could avoid crapping the bed in every big game it plays, I don’t think anyone would care if it were done by walks and bunt singles. People are sick of this spineless, “oh well, we’ll get ‘em next year” approach.

So tell me Darius. How do you really feel about the Twins?

 

Remember when people were running Molitor out of town? I don’t recall his list of absurd managerial decisions being even close to Baldelli’s.

We had compiled some very long lists of baffling decisions Molitor has made back in the day. Baldelli's coaching hasn't been all that different IMO, outside of having a quicker hook on starters (Molly, on the other hand, would keep the starters in waaay too long) and resting players more frequently. 

I do think a manager's impact on the game is overrated, and the players need to go out there and player better. No matter the poor bullpen decisions on Rocco's part, they had no chance of winning that series when their offense scored 2 runs in 18 innings against the mediocre 29-31 Astros.

I continue to monitor the games - see my blog on the wild card results - and it is apparent that small ball still works.  It is also fun to see pitchers go 7 or more innings at the start of the game.  I am being redundant, but it is obvious to me that this team lacks spirit - the Puckett affect - and I am seeing other teams' players excited, angry, emotional and I love it.  

One last note as my blog illuminates - there are no central division teams left,  Not one, not NL, not AL.  Our division stunk and we were handed the division championship, we backed into it. 

To summarize. Molly didn’t use enough analytics and sucked. Rocco uses too much analytics and sucks. Sure hope the next one can do it just right.

Rocco made some pretty dumb calls and there is no question, but I don't care who we had in that dugout.  It could have been Casey Stengel, Earl Weaver, Tony LaRussa, Muller Huggins, whatever.  It comes down to this team (once again) putting together terrible at bat after terrible at bat. It is clear that when the Minnesota Twins reach the playoff the goal has already been achieved.  That message has been deeply inculcated into the players coming though our system before they even reach the big leagues.  Rocco has been indoctrinated into it as well.  In fact, they selected him because they thought he was intelligent and understood analytics and they knew he was a "people person" and a players guy.  He proved how super-chill he was after last year's embarrassment:

"I'm not frustrated at all"

That ring a bell for anyone?

We have seen this rerun many times over and it is basically the same thing.  We have lost 17 playoff games in a row.  In those last 17 games we have scored 41 runs.  In the last 15 losses we have scored 31 runs.  We can go on and on about pitching, defense, managerial moves, umpiring, shifts, etc....I don't care.  If this team is going to average two runs per game in the playoffs they are going nowhere.  Rocco deserves to be ripped, but then when he's gone and we get swept out of the playoffs again what are we talking about?

I recognize there seems to be a troubling pattern of failure to produce under post season pressure for the Twins. If this has truly become a franchise culture issue and/or systemic since the 91 Championship or thereabouts it's going to take some decisive and dramatic changes to get different results. Chilling about it won't solve it.

I have always found it absurd that anyone would compare Molitor and Baldelli. Why?

Baldelli is a new age analytical manager with widespread respect across baseball and has has some success in his two years as a manager after suffering through a difficult career, mostly not too important. Molitor is in the Hall of Fame despite a host of debilitating injuries and setbacks in his career, was universally acknowledged by his peers and the managers of his time as one of the smartest and most intelligent players of the past 50 years, he was manager of the year and quietly suffered with a squad that could never compete athletically on the field with the current team under Rocco. 

Please don't compare Rocco and Paul unless you are willing to compare Nick Punto, who I liked, with Ozzie Smith. There are not in the same stratosphere. Terry Francona? Now there is a manager.

Keep the Bomba Squad, get rid of Rocco....

Keep Rocco, get rid of Astudillo....

I recognize there seems to be a troubling pattern of failure to produce under post season pressure for the Twins. If this has truly become a franchise culture issue and/or systemic since the 91 Championship or thereabouts it's going to take some decisive and dramatic changes to get different results. Chilling about it won't solve it.

There seems to be some avoidance over this so whey you say "chilling about it" you pretty much explain Rocco's touch.  He didn't embrace the history for whatever reason last year.  I felt alienated when Rocco said, "I'm not frustrated at all" after last year's 3 and out.

It's funny because the team tries to act all relaxed like it isn't a big thing, but until they can face fact and admit:  YES, this is a big deal we aren't going anywhere.  Time to own it.

Rocco and Molitor had some common ground as players, both having a dangerous bat and speed. For the life of me I can't understand what has happened to the Twins' baserunning skills the last couple of years. Sure, homers are nice, but there seems to be some speed on the team if it was ever utilized. Kepler, Buxton, Rosario, Polanco, even Garver at times.

And I've mentioned the importance of Rowson's departure before. Jeter saw something and pried him away. No chance he's coming back - he's busy helping the Marlins win playoff games.

Specific to the issue of breaking up the Bomba squad going into next season, I did an analysis of the 91 HRs the Twins hit this season, when I think I heard a stat that stated they were 4th in MLB.  As I heard that earlier this week, I remembered saying out loud, "well...big whoop"---I bet 2/3 of those 91 came with the bases empty."  Well the FACTS show that I was actually spot on (not that I'm happy with that).

62 of the Twins 91 HRs were solo shots--68.13%.  Let me repeat that, 68.13%.  I can't say where that ranks to other teams this year, but I'd venture it would be in the bottom 10.  The whole Bomba Squad made for a nice marketing tool, but proved to be unsustainable this year.  I believe that far too many of our hitters who "broke out last year" (Garver, Polanco, Sano) started to believe their hype and swung for the fences far too often. 

Not to discredit Cincinnati pitching in our final home series and what the Astros were able to do, but how many HRs did the Twins hit in their final 5 home games this season.  Answer:  ZERO.  In the 1 game they won on their last homestand (7-3 vs. CIN) they hit 8 doubles.  Thats HOW you win games.  

Back to the HR analysis, I found the following other nuggets that may be found interesting by others:

1. Twins hitters hit only 7 three-run HRs all season and failed to hit a 3-run HR in ANY game after Donaldson's shot in 1st game of DH @ STL on September 8th.

2. Rosario:  For all of his faults...and there's a lot of them.......actually was the TEAM LEADER (not Cruz) hitting 6 HRs with men on base.  Four 2-run HRs, 1 3run HR and 1 grand slam.  Cruz, Sano and Buxton tied with 4 HRs that were not solos.

3. Cruz:  Hard not resign him with the season he put up, but his production with men on base waned badly over the last 1/2 of the season as he failed to hit anything more than a solo HR from August 21 through September 27th. Many other culprits but zero 2/3 run HR (or grand slam) over his last 34 games may make some fans wonder if investing $30mill to bring him back over the next 2 seasons is the best course of action.

4.  Of Twins 91 HRs...62 were solo shots and another 20 were 2-run HRs.  So 82 of the 91 HRs------90.1%---didn't generate a lot of runs (102 total).  How many opportunities did Twin hitters waste throughout the year by failing to go deep with 2 runners on base.

5.  Twins hit a total of 2 grand slams for the season.  Cave in Game 3 vs. White Sox and Rosario in Game 17 @ Milwaukee.  

The de-construct of this team may not happen till 2022 as I doubt, Falvey/Levine/Pohlads will blow this team up to a large degree going into 2021.  I don't see Garver (31 HRs in 2019) getting traded.  Nor do I see Polanco (22 HRs in 2019) nor Kepler (36-2019) being traded or replaced as both are signed to team friendly long term deals.  Same is true for Sano (34 HR last year) as he's signed for $11m next season.  Seriously, what team in their right mind would take on his contract with a 2020 whiff rate (90 in 186 ABs) that was nearly 50% in 2020. The obvious trade option is Rosario, who will demand more than $8mill in arbitration. 

I'm not saying that I want to see Twins mgmt revert to a 1980s style of "Billy Ball," but our extended FAILURE in PLAYOFFS, which Rocco IS PART OF (whether he'll admit it or not) with managing this club to 5 consecutive playoff losses (19-20)--should send a clear signal that CHANGE is needed.  Swinging for the fences is fine for the regular season facing poor pitchers, but will not produce a winning formula for playoff success.

I'm not saying that I want to see Twins mgmt revert to a 1980s style of "Billy Ball,"

 

I understand that - especially with what happened to those A's starters the following years - what would be wrong with going to the same format at the 2014-15 Royals?  Not an ancient team that actually won with small ball and dominant pitching.  The "three headed monster" out of the bullpen wasn't exactly a new revolution either, as other championship teams had quality relief pitching.

To summarize. Molly didn’t use enough analytics and sucked. Rocco uses too much analytics and sucks. Sure hope the next one can do it just right.

I liked Molly much more than Rocco. He was aggressive in replacing struggling pitchers showing burning desire to win, Rocco just sits in the dugout and lets pitchers get hammered to the point a win is more remote or impossible. He did it with Gibson and Martin Perez in 2nd half of 2019 and has done it with relievers this year 2020. Plus pulling both Berrios and Maeda after 5 was contrary to all standards of managing a game in baseball history and were the wrong call IMO.

I love the Twins and have followed them for 56 years through down times and good. It’s because I care that I will call out management or the manager when they are hurting. Management should have had better backups than Cave for Buxton and Adrianza or Gonzalez for Donaldson. With a good backup 1st baseman, Sano could have spent time on the bench when he became a lost strikeout machine. Luckily we had Jeffers for Garver. I like Gordon as a possible replacement for Arraez. Who has the best skill set for the team? Kirilloff has a role. Painfully, Kepler generally has an unacceptable low batting average. The bench is far too week and the starting pitching at 4 and 5 needs better insurance. A quality backup for Buxton is necessary.

I’m one of the ones that supports Rosario. I see him make almost all routine catches and he has adequate range plus a monster throwing arm, which impacts games more than the average home run, IMO. We need a closer. Romo, M Gonzalez, Adrianza should be let go. MLB ready backup for Donaldson. Dobnak and Smeltzer can’t be counted on IMO and the 2019 and 2020 numbers prove it. We probably need a new manager or one (Rocco) who is willing to correct his mistakes and grow.

I like Rooker to be an important piece next year.

Management needs to bring in MLB ready players to share time with or replace Donaldson, Buxton, Sano and possible Arraez (Gordon).

WIN TWINS!

Justin Morneau put it perfect.  Those nicknames and teams happen in the moment and not forced.  Going into 2019 they did not call them that.  It was not until like 60 games in when HR pace was crazy that the name really grew.  Just because same team the next year does not mean the same outcome.

He brought up the smell em' year.  People tried to carry that over the next year, but again it just came out of no where.  Players did not want to make it a thing, but fans saw the finger to the nose and point to dugout then the team was known for the smell em' team.  

Forcing a team into something never works well.  Let the name go, and let next years team come up with their own thing.  

I have to laugh at some of these posts. get rid of the Bomba Squad name? C'mon now. First of all, you could not count on Garver because he had never done what he did in 2019 and he was hurt. Next, the manager made mistakes, yes- to me the biggest was not pinch hitting for the catcher with 2 on after he had looked terrible in all at bats- but the players have to execute. When a guy like Kepler or Sano takes a pitch down the middle then swings at something well out of the strike zone, you have to shake your head. Finally, seeing Romo throw a fastball out of the strike zone when his best pitch is a slider they can't hit was disgusting. The manager, like the umpire, doesn't lose games though he may win a game or two. And now you want to trade Rosario who may be the best all around healthy ballplayer we have? C'mon now guys and gals.

I liked Molly much more than Rocco. He was aggressive in replacing struggling pitchers showing burning desire to win, Rocco just sits in the dugout and lets pitchers get hammered to the point a win is more remote or impossible. He did it with Gibson and Martin Perez in 2nd half of 2019 and has done it with relievers this year 2020. Plus pulling both Berrios and Maeda after 5 was contrary to all standards of managing a game in baseball history and were the wrong call IMO.

 

I love the Twins and have followed them for 56 years through down times and good. It’s because I care that I will call out management or the manager when they are hurting. Management should have had better backups than Cave for Buxton and Adrianza or Gonzalez for Donaldson. With a good backup 1st baseman, Sano could have spent time on the bench when he became a lost strikeout machine. Luckily we had Jeffers for Garver. I like Gordon as a possible replacement for Arraez. Who has the best skill set for the team? Kirilloff has a role. Painfully, Kepler generally has an unacceptable low batting average. The bench is far too week and the starting pitching at 4 and 5 needs better insurance. A quality backup for Buxton is necessary.

 

I’m one of the ones that supports Rosario. I see him make almost all routine catches and he has adequate range plus a monster throwing arm, which impacts games more than the average home run, IMO. We need a closer. Romo, M Gonzalez, Adrianza should be let go. MLB ready backup for Donaldson. Dobnak and Smeltzer can’t be counted on IMO and the 2019 and 2020 numbers prove it. We probably need a new manager or one (Rocco) who is willing to correct his mistakes and grow.

 

I like Rooker to be an important piece next year.

 

Management needs to bring in MLB ready players to share time with or replace Donaldson, Buxton, Sano and possible Arraez (Gordon).

 

WIN TWINS!

This post is excellent and covers it all.  Although when he mentions bringing in MLB ready players, I wonder how much will their readiness will be taken into account over their service time.  We have already seen how much service time matters to the FO, given their history with Buxton for one example.  Plus, I really wonder why Kirilloff was brought up only for a game that doesn't count toward his service time.  If he was really MLB ready for postseason, wasn't he good enough to bring up in the regular season when injuries were mounting?  Or were they afraid of the clock staring to tick on his service time?