Is Luis Arraez Really Just Ben Revere?

Danny Santana had an OPS+ of 130 and some data behind it to make us wonder whether he would repeat in year 2.

Arraez had a low hard hit rate and exit velocity. Those two numbers are similar to Revere. Is it at least worth wondering about?

Should we ignore the 4th percentile hard hit rate or 19th percentile exit velocity? I don’t think it is wise to jump to only lack of home runs from there. Are there any other players who have consistently been better than league average hitters at those ranks? I don’t know the answer to that question but it can’t be many.

It will be interesting to see how teams pitch and defend Arraez differently this year and then how he adjusts.

Interesting question, and I don't know either. But, I think the rankings make it look worse than it really is when I think of this in historical terms. In other words, if I close my eyes and plunk the 1970's versions of Rod Carew or Pete Rose into 2019...where do I think they'd rank in these types of batted-ball stats...with the way guys swing now...taking (or whiffing) on any pitch that can't be pulled/launched? I'm almost positive they'd rank shockingly low. But, do I think they'd put up OPS's north of .800 (AL league average last year was 762). Yes, they would. Even in their 'lesser' seasons...seasons where their HR totals didn't get to double-digits...they would be able to do that. Just by consistently hitting the ball all over the inside of the ball park, and being willing to take walks when they are there to be taken.

It's just that in the stat-cast era, guys like Arraez simply aren't arriving in the major leagues. I don't think he needs to be as good as Carew was at this (and he won't be) to still sustain something that is above average. But we'll see. Honestly...he's like a science experiment.

In any regard, I agree the sample is still small and that tough adjustments are headed his way now that he's on the radar.

You're really misinterpreting what StatCast tries to tell us if you think guys who hit the ball and hit it hard (but maybe not enough to fence it) aren't getting a shot at the big leagues.

 

The thing is that guys like Revere (not Arraez) don't make the big leagues nowadays because of their launch angle or, more likely, they have it fixed before they hit even hit MLB and are therefore successful.

 

StatCast doesn't hate these guys, it hates bad contact and bad launch angle because defenses are so attuned to groundball contact nowadays.

That's not what I'm saying. At all. What I'm saying is that the predominant modern approach is to pull (and launch)...and to hit the ball hard...at all costs. Even at the cost of very low batting averages and high strike out totals. That has nothing to do with StatCast..it's sybermetrics...I was just using the 'Statcast era' as a historical marker of time/era. Anyway, the result is that there are very few players getting to the major leagues (based on the way players are developed) who have the skill set to consistently put all types of pitches in all areas of the strike zone in play...and in play to all fields. It's a skill that doesn't rely as much on exit velocity and 'hard hit' pct to still provide value. Arraez is a throw back in that regard.

And he is a heckuva good guy also. My son took his one month old son to the winter caravan, or whatever it's now called,Jan 20 in Fargo. Arraez talked to, signed objects,and took pictures with them all the while with a huge smile and sincere demeanor. My son says he is a good humanbeing.

I take issue with the title.  I could not get past it and needed to post my 100% disagreement with the mention of these two names together. This is not a good way to start a discussion about Luis Arraez.  He had a .828 OPS last year, Ben Revere had a .661 OPS.  TO compare the two is call Arraez toothless after a single half season where he played brilliantly.  He also mananged to hit 4 home runs and Revere needed over 2,000 at bats to get there.

I will read the article and then see if it's even worth another response.  Sorry, Ted....not sure how or why you decided this should be the launching off point for a discussion.

Ben Revere hit .306 over the course of three seasons, 2013-2015. Not bad, but I've heard it said that he was possibly the worst .306 hitter in the history of baseball. He had a very low percentage of extra base hits and a very low total of bases on balls. True, his speed could turn a number of singles and walks into effective doubles with a stolen base, but strictly in terms of batting skill his stats reveal that he was a slap hitter at best. There's no doubt in my mind that Arraez will be a much, much better hitter than Revere.

Defensively, there's never been anyone much better than Revere at catching fly balls but his pop gun arm was a huge drawback. Regarding a comparison to Arraez, it's apples and oranges. Will Arraez be a better infielder than Revere was an outfielder? Probably.

Ben Revere hit .306 over the course of three seasons, 2013-2015. Not bad, but I've heard it said that he was possibly the worst .306 hitter in the history of baseball. He had a very low percentage of extra base hits and a very low total of bases on balls. True, his speed could turn a number of singles and walks into effective doubles with a stolen base, but strictly in terms of batting skill his stats reveal that he was a slap hitter at best. There's no doubt in my mind that Arraez will be a much, much better hitter than Revere.

Defensively, there's never been anyone much better than Revere at catching fly balls but his pop gun arm was a huge drawback. Regarding a comparison to Arraez, it's apples and oranges. Will Arraez be a better infielder than Revere was an outfielder? Probably.

Ben Revere's goofiness might best embody what I couldn't take about the early 2010s Twins teams.  Somehow people found his smile charming.  I found it to be thoroughly annoying

You can get away with a light hitting player like Revere or Arraez 

Arraez is not "light hitting"

One who hits .334 with a 123 OPS+ should not deserve such a designation as you've assigned.