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  • Is Ervin Santana Really A Midseason Addition?


    Ted Schwerzler

    In just a few more days, the Minnesota Twins will be afforded the opportunity to see their $55 million free agent acquisition in action. After serving his performance-enhancing drug related suspension, Ervin Santana will rejoin the 25-man roster and the starting rotation for the Twins.

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    With the Twins pitching staff being where it is in 2015, what the Twins should expect from Santana remains somewhat of a mystery.

    After four years of futility from their starters, the Twins have seemingly turned a corner in 2015. No longer ranking at the bottom of the big leagues, Minnesota has finally opened a door that has afforded both more quality, and a higher quantity of starting pitchers. 16th in the majors when it comes to team ERA (3.87), and eighth in the American League, the Twins are in a much better place. Still dead last in the big leagues in strikeouts (439) and 27th in batting average against (.271), the Twins have plenty of reasons to work towards continued improvement.

    It's fair to question how Santana plays into that equation, however.

    As things stand currently, the Twins have some difficult decisions to make regarding the rotation. Phil Hughes is the staff ace, despite owning a 4.20 ERA. Hurt by the long ball in 2015, Hughes has taken steps back, but is still a lock amongst the group for years to come. Kyle Gibson and Trevor May highlight the young core of the rotation. Both top draft picks, Gibson has been one of the club's best pitchers, and May has operated as the ace for the majority of the season. That leaves Mike Pelfrey and Tommy Milone.

    Pelfrey continues to defy odds and owns a club best 3.06 ERA. Despite striking out next to no one, Pelfrey has gotten the job done after being sent to the bullpen out of spring training. Milone was jettisoned to Triple-A Rochester earlier this season, and after tearing up the farm, he's been on fire since his return. In five games since his return Milone has thrown to the tune of a 2.03 ERA and .246/.288/.364 slash line against. So how does Santana fit?

    Most seem to be operating under the impression that it's Milone who could be sent packing. With team control, and the ability to send him back to Triple-A, the former Athletics pitcher possesses the most flexibility. Ideally, a trade of Pelfrey would happen, but there's no doubt his value is not high around the league. No matter who is moved out of the starting five however, the addition of Santana may not be what it seems.

    Last season, Santana pitched in the National League for the first time in his career. His 3.95 ERA was backed by a 3.39 FIP (fielding independent pitching) mark. Despite being better than his final ERA suggested, Santana is far from a lights out pitcher. Owning a career 4.26 FIP in front of better fielding teams, there could be some cause for concern. Hovering around the high 3.00 ERA mark for the majority of his career, Santana's biggest asset to the Twins may be in his 7.2 career K/9, easily ranking among the best on the Twins staff.

    There's little doubt that Santana would fall in the category of a quality arm added into the rotation. In recent seasons, the Twins have needed to push more quantity to the mound than anything else. However, expecting Santana to come in and light the world on fire seems farfetched as well. Considering the staff has been pitching well of late, the shuffling of that chemistry and those arms could come at a cost for Minnesota.

    The Twins have a good problem in that they have more quality arms than they know what to do with. Right now though, Santana remains a wild card, and until Minnesota finds out exactly what he is going to bring, the hurt or gain from moving around Milone or another starter won't be felt.

    Despite being a long-term concern, it's also fair to suggest this problem may again rear its head in September. Due to his suspension. Santana is not eligible to pitch in the postseason. Should the Twins remain in the hunt, another rotation shuffle would need to take place before playoff baseball kicks off. Inserting Milone or someone else back in to Santana's spot after a demotion, and knowing production is immediately necessary, could also be a tough task.

    Of course the Twins did the right thing this offseason in bringing in a proven veteran to bolster the staff. Santana sitting out, and now needing to be brought in, brings a lot of questions as a midseason addition. The Twins are being forced to make a change that could bring a result they weren't initially planning on.

    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

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    I agree it feels that way with Pelfrey but I don't see why the Twins would cater to Milone. They didn't hesitate to demote the guy earlier in the season.

     

    Yeah, I'm referencing Pelfrey.  I think Milone has earned his spot.

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    'Trevor, since I built a bullpen void of anyone who can strike someone out, besides Perkins (who my manager keeps on the sideline in extra innings games against division leaders), we'd like to move the starter who strikes out the most batters into the bullpen.  That's you bubba.  Try not to think of your unique ability, in this rotation, to dominate as the reason you got demoted.  The very moment an inferior starter gets traded or hurt, you'll be back in there. Happy 4th of July.  Want a burger?'-Terry Ryan.

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    I'm not convinced it's that dumb. Yeah, in a perfect world you want May in the rotation and he's not the worst starter by any measure... But right now, the rotation is serviceable. The bullpen is not.

    It's possible that this is the biggest net gain for the team because it gives Molitor three good to great strikeout pitchers to go 7-8-9 and shut down games. Kansas City has used the model "serviceable rotation, ferocious bullpen" for a few years and it has worked brilliantly for them.

     

    Yep, I applaud the Twins.  This is the best move to stop the bleeding, and give the Twins a decent chance of winning a number of games over the next couple of weeks, not just a May start or two.

     

    (And I do enjoy the irony of you using the KC comp... the Davis/Shields trade transformed the Royals)

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    Yep, I applaud the Twins. This is the best move to stop the bleeding, and give the Twins a decent chance of winning a number of games over the next couple of weeks, not just a May start or two.

     

    (And I do enjoy the irony of you using the KC comp... the Davis/Shields trade transformed the Royals)

    Well, I don't like the idea of building what is, in my opinion, a backwards pitching staff. I firmly believe that generally, the smartest route is to keep your best pitchers in the rotation... But the Twins have put themselves in quite a position with their current pen and this might be the only way to change that internally.

     

    If I ran the team, I would have aggressively replaced relievers earlier in the season but that didn't happen so here we are today.

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    The article lost me when they said May was acting as the staff ace. That would be Gibson or milone.

     

    Hughes, and it's not even close.

     

    Using small samples of ERA just doesn't work very well when grading pitchers.    Career trends and peripherals tell a more complete story, and they both point toward Hughes and May being more effective.

     

    Milone and Gibson are having nice seasons, but they could regress at the drop of a hat unless their 6-ish K rates hold up.  In the mean time they're relatively young and cheap, so the Twins might as well ride their hot streak while they can.

     

    That leaves the older, more expensive, low-K Pelfrey as the odd man out.  It's great that he's a nice guy and all, but complaining about going to the pen when you're lucky to be in the majors at all somewhat nullifies that for me.

     

    Take away the good guy stuff and you're left with a guy who's 31 and has an ERA that's very likely unsustainable given his very low K rate and his other mediocre peripherals.

     

    May to the pen long term is a mistake.    May to the pen instead of Pelfrey just makes it a bigger one.    There is virtually no chance Pelfrey contributes much to a winning Twins team, especially in the long run beyond 2015.

     

    If the Twins weed out the weak rotation link in July while May helps win a couple in the pen before returning, great.  Anything more than that and the franchise is likely the worse for it.

    Edited by LaBombo
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    If Hughes is our ace we have serious, serious issues.  Even worse if it's not even close.  His ability shouldn't be judged by one quality season this decade.  That's the outlier. 

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    Sure looked like the old Pelfrey last night. Two possible silver linings he puts together a couple of good starts and is attractive at the deadline and maybe may boosts the pen

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    Bolstering the bullpen is fine and all, but the difference between May and Pelfrey in the rotation more than outweighs that. Plenty of excuses are being offered up for this, as expected. The Twins made the wrong move, as expected. I would be more irritated except I've been criticizing this move for weeks, because it was so obvious that it would happen regardless of how badly Pelfrey pitched.

     

    Nor should Milone keep a spot over May. Milone's ERA is much better than he's really pitched, and he would be a better lefty out of the bullpen than Thompson or Duensing. May is better now and more a part of the Twins future plans. So that aspect of the decision is also just plain error on the Twins' part. Not that Milone doesn't 'deserve' a spot, but May deserves it more.

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    I've been waiting a long time to see Pelfrey pitch, especially after his recent outings.  He is exactly as he was with the Mets:  he teases for a few starts and them completely implodes.  It starts with overthrowing, then he gets frustrated and has something like a mental breakdown on the field.  Molitor looked like he could get him off the field soon enough. 

     

    I think Molitor's statement that May's move to the bullpen made most sense for the short-term and sending May down "would be helpful in terms of keeping him ready to help us if something happens to one of our guys."

     

    I'm thinking short-term = Mike Pelfrey's next start.  The "something happens" is Pelfrey imploding again. 

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