Improving College Arms: The Falvey Method?

Great topic, Matt.

I think baseball is changing.  The draft used to be 50 rounds.  Now it is 20, or is it 25 this year?  Roughly 40 minor league teams were eliminated.  In football, nearly all players go to college for three or four years then step in and contribute immediately.  Doubt we will see that in baseball, but your point that the best college players spend several less years in the minors is so important.  Expect we will see all/most MLB teams slowly shifting to taking mostly college players in their draft.  The result will be more high schoolers going to college.

I think there is a lot of value in college pitchers later in drafts.  Pitching is one of the hardest positions to really project over a career.  So many little injuries can derail careers.  You see some guys dominate for 3 to 4 years winning cy young awards only to bounce from team to team after a huge drop off.  High school pitcher will put up big numbers in high school normally because they hardly face any top talent.  Yes, they will go on their show cases, but in those the hitters will normally have never seen the pitcher, or seen them maybe see them a few times over the years.  With college they will see same hitters a lot more often over their three year career. 

There is always such a fine line between good and great, and good and bad.  High school guys you normally are looking at velo and movement but need to teach them to pitch.  Sometimes they hit big, sometimes you miss big.  Not that college arms are safe or anything, but at least you have more of an idea. Many top college arms over years have been busts.  

I have always believed that taking a college pitcher is better not only because of the seasoning he has, but because if a pitcher is injury prone it will usually show up in his younger years, either in the minors or in college.  If a pitcher shows durability as well as talent it would behoove an organization to invest time and money into that known commodity, or at least as known as it can be.  I also have always believed that when said organization tries to fiddle with the pitcher and try to add velo, as they say, that increases the chance of injury with each mph.  An injury free pitcher never seems to stay that way anymore, and there has to be a reason for that.  I don't remember if it was Falvey or Levine, but just recently they answered a question about the rash of injuries in pitchers saying today's pitcher is throwing between 96 and 100 miles an hour, which the human body isn't designed to do (slight paraphrasing, but close).  And yet we continue to coach it and expect it.  A good college pitcher who knows how to pitch (up/down, in/out, changing speeds constantly) doesn't need to throw 98 mph to make it in pro ball.  They need to build arm strength to go a much longer season, and find their role in the starting rotation or the BP and develop that role.  Doesn't mean you can't use a pick or two on a high school phenom, but overall I prefer a more seasoned arm.  

I have no doubt the college pitcher is the better choice 90% of the time.  Our bodies mature at very different rates and so do our minds.  I think the college pitcher has more coaching, better muscle memory and hopefully more maturity. 

This team is taking college pitchers that have had a lot of "seasoning"  and adding 5-8 mph on their pitches.   Going from college to the pro's where you focus on your craft completely will of course add something to your pitch ability.  The are finding arms as deep as round 15 and making them into useful arms either in the minor leagues or possibly even for the big leagues.   

I was actually surprised they drafted Chase Petty, and then they proceed to trade for 2 year of Sonny Gray who if he remains healthy is a better version of Berrios.   If you net the two trades together,  you get Gray, Martin and SWR for Berrios and Petty.  The Twins incrementally got better from those 2 trades although I felt the Jays slightly overpaid for Berrios.  

But this is a thread on drafting college prospects,  improving their mechanics to increase velocity and finding pitchers with an elite pitch they can begin to work off of.  Needless to say they have plenty of college arms in the minor leagues that are finding success and adding to our future pitching pipeline.  

I looked a few years back from 2017 and it seems the Twins were taking about 30% college pitchers in the draft prior to the new regime.  I was actually surprised it was that big of a difference.  All teams take quite a few college arms these days, and all but a few probably shy away from high school arms for the most part too.  I don't think this is a particularly new trend.

I think the big difference for the front office is what they have been doing with the college arms they are drafting.  There weren't a whole lot of pitching draft and development successes for the prior regime, and mostly they were guys that ended up relievers.  Taylor Rogers (11th round of 2011) and Pat Neshek (6th round of 2002) are probably the most notable successes from the prior 15 years.

Already with the new regime we have seen Ober (12th round or 2017), who looks likely to continue holding down a mid rotation slot which will more than likely lead him to matching and surpassing Rogers' value.  Winder (7th round of 2018) looks ready to follow a similar, maybe even better path.

Clearly they know how to add velocity in the minors now, and most of the other orgs do too.  I think maybe a common trait among a lot of their early successes are big tall frames with decent control in college, maybe not caring as much about present velocity knowing they can get more especially with big-framed guys.  Ober, Winder, Headrick, and Gipson-Long I think certainly fit that profile, probably Cade Povich who I think is taller than his listed 6'3", and maybe Festa, though his control didn't seem great in college. I would think other orgs also probably like many aspects of that profile too, but The Twins seem to be getting their guys and doing well developing them lately.

Your scouts have to have a good eye on HS pitchers. Berrios, Bungartner, Cole, Greinke, Thor, Wheeler were all HS pitchers when drafted. So was Bundy and a whole lot of others. Same holds true for college pitchers., 

I think going the college route more often is a combination of factors, many of them already mentioned here.

A top HS arm, much like a SS, (or a QB in football), tends to often  be the best athlete on the team. So trying to project how well their stuff plays and develops against a higher level of player on pro ball, much less any physical development, is just harder to accurately project. It doesn't mean there aren't really good 18yo arms that you don't pick, and that don't turn out, they're just much more of a wild card to accurately project.

College pitchers are at least a bit more physically developed. Many of them can/will still continue to fill out and gain strength, but it's easier to see a more finished body type. Additionally, they've had a higher level of competition and coaching to harness at least one non fastball pitch.

What the Twins have been doing, IMO, is recognize what pro coaching and career concentration can do for those college pitchers. Even better mechanics, greater repetition, a little more physical development, velocity can jump, control can be smoothed out, and unlike a HS pitcher, you're looking at adding a pitch and polishing the rest, vs a HS pitcher where you're probably trying to often develop 2 pitches, much less polish them.

Time will tell how successful they are going to be, but the early returns have been good so far, and I think optimism is warranted. I think Povich is a prime example. Decent length, but a rather lanky build, good control, at least one solid secondary offering. Now concentrating on his profession, he fills out physically a little more for velocity, and better, more polished mechanics add a tick or two as well. And those better mechanics make his secondary stuff, at least one pitch, more consistent. Now, again, you're working most on the 3rd or 4th pitch instead of working with the more blank canvass that a HS kid presents.

Add Paredes as another college late round draft pick to start to keep an eye on.  It seems like every week we have another pitcher pop up who is doing incredible things in the minor leagues.