Impromptu Draft Update

He needs:

 

 

• a major league second pitch He has that
• a major league third pitch He has the makings of this, and he is 17 and will develop over the coming years
• more movement to his fastball. He has this

 

Downside:  He ends up like Tonkin with one less pitch

I also confirmed last night that Greene is done pitching. He says his coach "pulled the plug." 

 

And no, it's not different than guys skipping other things leading up to the draft. 

 

And it's definitely a more positive trend (for the player) than having him throw hundreds of pitches on short rest like a college pitcher would do.

This requires more than a "like".

Just curious where you think he might go.  That's another guy I'd love to see the Twins take, especially if he's not a first rounder.

Not Jeremy, but did have a chat with a couple scouts with NL teams this last week (not the Braves ones on this topic, interestingly), and they all pretty much assume he'll be a back-end first round guy. Pretty much late-teens on through CBA picks is expected range. Coming into the year, he was a guy most saw as a 3rd-5th round type of hitter.

I worry that the entire industry, which has been following Greene since he was a grade schooler according to the SI piece, has some tunnel vision going on.

Don't get me wrong, the velo is enticing and he seems like a high character kid but the amount of contact he allows just doesn't seem to warrant all the hyperbole IMHO.

But the industry had also zeroed in on Anthony Molina in last season's draft class early and Riley Pint and Jason Groome as freshmen/sophomores and those guys didn't go 1-1.

In fact, I have a Braves Twitter follower who is a big draftnik, and he tracks the different mock drafts each major place puts out. The one out at each major place on the 25th of April had either Jason Groome or Kyle Lewis as 1-1 last year. Neither went top 10.

As I said in the general draft thread, KLAW has his top 50 up.

 

McKay is third, btw.....

 

I'm not going to rip a Greene, McKay or Wright pick (assuming Wright looks great the rest of the year). Anyone else? I'm going to seriously question the new FO.

 

There is a MN HS kid he has 15th....

He's bold as heck on Carlson, and I love it. I'm a big fan, but I was surprised on that.

 

Two independent questions:

 

• How big is the difference between HS and college talent?  As big as the difference between say A and AA or A and AAA?  I'm not equating HS to A, just concerned about the difference.
• The twins have a first round supplemental and a 2/1 pick (35 and 37?).  Does that affect the discussion about paying over / under slot?

 

On the first, it's a tough question to answer. It depends on the year. College talent in a draft can be low due to a number of the best high schoolers signing in a few drafts in a row or it can be very high due to the opposite reason. There are always some guys who develop in college, but there is also value in getting a guy out of high school and not having a college mess up his arm or swing as colleges are there to win while the minors don't really care if they lose a game 20-0 if there's something positive developmentally that can come out of it for the players involved.

On your second question, that's huge. Especially with the flattening of the draft pools, the Twins have about as much ability to manipulate their draft as anyone could this season. The Braves used 3/40/44 last year to really use their large bonus pool to their advantage. Three top 50 picks is a huge advantage for sure.

They probably do have the best ability to manipulate the draft... but it pales in comparison to past years. Having the #1 pick is much less of an advantage pool-wise.

Yes, though in fairness, the post 10th round stuff could be interesting when we get in June and official papers hit the league office on which high school players opt out of the draft. Hard to convince that long shot HS guy to leave his commitment with a $700K bonus in the 12th round if he's not allowed to be picked at all. That could determine better where the money is spent and allow for more of an intentional plan on the first few rounds, whereas the Braves even admitted that they didn't expect as many of their 11th-40th round guys to come to the table willing to deal as did, and it left them scrambling. Having better ideas there will help budgeting for a team looking to manipulate - or at least it should, in theory.

Consider that the Twins haven't been very successful at developing HS players as well as other teams,  Selecting the older and more developed college player (McKay) seems automatic.  True, some teams might turn Greene into this "generational" pitcher--but, are the Twins one of the some teams?--or one of the others?

IMO McKay is less risk and higher ceiling. As a pitcher he has been comped to Cliff Lee. As a hitter, well, he's #2 among D1 players in OBP, 11 in slugging percentage, and strikes out at a very good 10.5%. Well below the likes of Kendall, Rooker, etc. There's plenty of ceiling in the bat.

 

And as I've said before, there is the jackpot scenario where he develops into Cliff Lee on days he pitches and hits like Justin Morneau the other 4/5 games. Delivering 11-12 WAR/year plus opening up a roster spot.

 

What's that guy worth in today's market, maybe $100m / year?

There's no chance that the Twins or any other club will have a starting pitcher also be a starting position player. Starters have a routine that they follow to rest their arm, etc., which would be disrupted even as a DH. A reliever could potentially be a lineup regular, and a starter could be available as a pinch-hitter sometimes, but that's pretty much the extent of it.

The benefit to McKay's two-way talents is a reduction in risk without compromising upside - he has significant potential either way. Nor are the outcomes of the pitching and hitting tracks necessarily correlated; in other words, if his bat disappoints, that doesn't do much to devalue his pitching potential.

Also important is the fact that, as a college player, a reassessment of McKay's position could be made within a relatively short timeframe if Plan A looks like a mistake. Greene, by contrast, would need much more time for such a determination, and he would have to start back at square one, whereas McKay at least faced SEC competition already as a hitter and pitcher.

There's no chance that the Twins or any other club will have a starting pitcher also be a starting position player. Starters have a routine that they follow to rest their arm, etc., which would be disrupted even as a DH. A reliever could potentially be a lineup regular, and a starter could be available as a pinch-hitter sometimes, but that's pretty much the extent of it.

 

Is this refusal by ML teams to consider having 2-way players based on data or is it just how things have always been done and no team wants to be the first to try (and perhaps fail).  It seems to me if this could be done successfully, it would give a team a significant advantage-especially a NL team.  In recent years there is increased usage of NL pitchers as pinch hitters.  Marcus Stroman pinch hit in a game last night.   I find it interesting that both McKay and Greene, likely the two top picks in this years draft could both be drafted as a position player or a pitcher (although Greene is likely to be a pitcher).  Shohei Otani has managed to be a successful 2-way player in Japan.  If he were to come to the U.S., would he continue being a two-way player or would teams force him to choose (or choose for him)? 

Was Floriman considered a top 10 prospect in his draft? KLAW has said Greene is one, as a SS, FWIW. So I'm not sure Floriman is a fair comp.

. No, Florimomon is a Dominican. The point was Greene's floor not ceiling. If he busts as a pitcher his comp could be Tonkin, If he busts as a pitcher and then tries SS, his comp as a busted shortstop could be Florimon.. If you bothered to read Thtylos's comment you might understand mine

I understood it. His floor is out of baseball. 

 

But, he's a top 10 prospect as a SS. He's not Floriman as a prospect at all. Not even in the same book, let alone sentence.

Nor is he Tonkin as a pitching prospect,  but you did not say boo about that when Thrylos brought it up and I responded to it. If Tonkin was a top ten pitching prospect when he was drafted that was one heck of a slide in the draft.  So just find it in your heart to forgive my ignorance in making fun of Thrylos's statement