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  • How Will the Twins Organize the New Bullpen Hierarchy?


    Cody Christie

    Minnesota's bullpen received an influx of talent at the trade deadline. How will Rocco Baldelli organize the Twins' new bullpen hierarchy?

     

    Image courtesy of William Parmeter (Duran), Nick Wosika (Lopez)-USA TODAY Sports

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    The Twins added Jorge Lopez and Michael Fulmer to a bullpen that has struggled for most of the 2022 campaign. Jhoan Duran has been unbelievable during his rookie campaign, and Griffin Jax has emerged as a late-inning weapon. How do these pieces fit into the new bullpen hierarchy?

    The Closer: Jorge López
    Baseball has gotten away from a traditional closer role, and the Twins have followed this trend under Rocco Baldelli. So far in 2022, seven different relievers have earned a save, with Emilio Pagan (9 saves) and Jhoan Duran (6 saves) leading the team. In his first full season as a reliever, López became an All-Star, and now he finds himself in the middle of the pennant race. It seems likely for him to get the majority of the save situations down the stretch. 

    The Fireman: Jhoan Duran
    Adding López allows the Twins to use Duran in each game's most important moments. For instance, the team can use him when the middle of the line-up is scheduled to bat in the sixth inning or if the starter runs into trouble in a tight game. Duran has also shown the ability to pitch more than one inning as he has recorded more than three outs in 11 of his 38 appearances. Duran will still get some save opportunities, but now Baldelli has more flexibility regarding when to use him. 

    The Set-Up Men: Michael Fulmer, Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar
    Minnesota relied on Jax and Thielbar in roles they weren't expected to fill at the season's start. Thielbar has more appearances than anyone on the team, and Jax has been the team's most successful reliever outside of Duran. According to fWAR, Thielbar and Jax only trail Duran among Twins relievers. Since June 22, Thielbar has an ERA under 2.00 while holding opponents to a .539 OPS. Jax has a 53-to-14 strikeout to walk ratio in 49 innings while holding batters to a .363 SLG. Fulmer's addition allows Thielbar and Jax to be pushed down the bullpen hierarchy in roles they were expected to occupy earlier in the season. 

    First Out of the Pen: Emilio Pagán, Trevor Megill, Jovani Moran, Cole Sands
    The Twins used Pagán, Megill and Tyler Duffey  in Thursday's loss, where they combined to allow nine runs (eight earned). Pagán hasn't been a good reliever since 2019, and he continues to be dreadful for the Twins. Duffey saw his velocity drop for the third consecutive season and the team waived him on Friday. According to Win Probability Added, Pagán and Duffey have been worth -2.12 wins for the Twins in 2022. Megill has only allowed multiple earned runs in three of his 20 appearances, and he wasn't expected to fit a high leverage role. Moran has struggled with control at the big-league level, but his change-up can be a bullpen weapon. Sands struggled with the Twins but he has done so in a small sample size of just over 16 innings. 

     

    Minnesota's bullpen significantly improves with the addition of López and Fulmer. Moving other players down the bullpen hierarchy will hopefully be able to find more success in less high leverage situations. The Twins have led the AL Central for most of the season, and the bullpen will be essential if the team wants to win their third division title in the last four years. 

    How would you organize the new bullpen hierarchy if you were the manager? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

     

     

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    Nice article Cody with a good analysis, which for the most part I agree with.

    As manager, my hierarchy would be the following:

    Closer:  Mix and match Lopez and Duran depending on previous game usage, opponent and lineup.  

    8th inning/ Set Up:  Fulmer with either Duran or Lopez in the mix.

    7th inning:  Still like Jax despite some recent hiccups.  Thielbar, still keeps proving he belongs. The 3-batter minimum doesn't help him. 

    6th inning:  Megill has showed some success in this slot.  I would instruct/tell my catcher to call for Megill to bring his 98mph gas much more frequently.

    5th inning (or earllier) due to 3+ run deficit:  Sands, but would prefer Smeltzer should he get called up.

    Pre-Game Shagging Fly balls/ In game Gopher getting water for other RPs:  Pagan.  Not bad duties for the salary he's earning.  He sure hasn't earned it on the mound.

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    I would not look to have Duran the "fireman" roll.  He can strike guys out at high rate and rarely walks, but he also is not always having clean 123 innings.  He seems to give up a week single a lot of times, which if you need to put out a fire you do not want that.  I think Twins will keep putting him out there to start innings.  I would agree using him against heart of lineup before 8th may be good idea than just save for 8th.  

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    4 hours ago, darwin22 said:

    Nice article Cody with a good analysis, which for the most part I agree with.

    As manager, my hierarchy would be the following:

    Closer:  Mix and match Lopez and Duran depending on previous game usage, opponent and lineup.  

    8th inning/ Set Up:  Fulmer with either Duran or Lopez in the mix.

    7th inning:  Still like Jax despite some recent hiccups.  Thielbar, still keeps proving he belongs. The 3-batter minimum doesn't help him. 

    6th inning:  Megill has showed some success in this slot.  I would instruct/tell my catcher to call for Megill to bring his 98mph gas much more frequently.

    5th inning (or earllier) due to 3+ run deficit:  Sands, but would prefer Smeltzer should he get called up.

    Pre-Game Shagging Fly balls/ In game Gopher getting water for other RPs:  Pagan.  Not bad duties for the salary he's earning.  He sure hasn't earned it on the mound.

    You are spot on, when Lopez isn't able to close we need Duran to. Although using them in tandem is awesome but it leaves us high & dry when they aren't pitching because the others aren't qualified to do so. In the 5th or 6th a long RP (A Sanchez, Smeltzer, Cotton) should be used 1st & see how far they can go and now with added quality high leverage RP depth we can get by with 4-5 short RPs to complete more games w/o over stretching the BP. With overtime games we need a RP like Duran to mow down the batters

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    On 8/7/2022 at 12:31 PM, darwin22 said:

    Nice article Cody with a good analysis, which for the most part I agree with.

    As manager, my hierarchy would be the following:

    Closer:  Mix and match Lopez and Duran depending on previous game usage, opponent and lineup.  

    8th inning/ Set Up:  Fulmer with either Duran or Lopez in the mix.

    7th inning:  Still like Jax despite some recent hiccups.  Thielbar, still keeps proving he belongs. The 3-batter minimum doesn't help him. 

    6th inning:  Megill has showed some success in this slot.  I would instruct/tell my catcher to call for Megill to bring his 98mph gas much more frequently.

    5th inning (or earllier) due to 3+ run deficit:  Sands, but would prefer Smeltzer should he get called up.

    Pre-Game Shagging Fly balls/ In game Gopher getting water for other RPs:  Pagan.  Not bad duties for the salary he's earning.  He sure hasn't earned it on the mound.

    I think you're giving Pagan too much credit based on his on-field performance this year.  Can we just give him away to someone like Cleveland or Chicago for literally nothing in return?

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