How the Twins Win the 2021 AL Central

Last year’s Twins looked far from the juggernaut we saw in 2019 but were certainly a capable team who won the division despite struggling at times. Plenty of articles have been written about the specific triumphs and struggles seen throughout the weirdest baseball season in Twins history. Rather than break down performances on the offensive, defensive and pitching side, I think it’s time to explore the greatest overall problem the 2020 Twins ran into.

The shortened season and limited schedule gave the Twins an opportunity to go on some tremendous runs as they were confined to facing likely the two worst divisions in all of baseball in the AL and NL Central. The Twins, like their rivals in Cleveland and Chicago, would look to pad their record against three of baseball's worst teams in the Royals, Tigers and Pirates.

Chicago was up to the task, dominating to the tune of a 21-3 record against this trio of teams competing for the #1 overall draft pick. 60% of the Sox total wins came against teams they were quite simply expected to beat.

Cleveland had the added benefit of playing the lowly Pirates for an extra series and would finish with an overpowering record of 17-9 against this group.

The Twins managed to come away with a record of 14-10 against the Royals, Tigers and Pirates. A .583 winning percentage in baseball is certainly respectable, but it was a bit disappointing against three teams that combined to finish with a .382 winning percentage. The 2020 Twins were a talented squad that at times appeared to play down to the level of their competition.

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While I admittedly try to separate the 2019 “Bomba Squad '' from any other version of the Minnesota Twins, that team knew how to take advantage of an opportunity, as 69 of their 101 wins came against teams with a losing record. While many used this as a knock on the legitimacy of the A.L. Central champions, it’s what allowed them to finish eight games above Cleveland despite some bad breaks against competitive teams.

Any MLB team can beat another on any given day, but when you’re facing Shane Bieber or Lucas Giolito on Wednesday, that matchup against Matt Boyd on Tuesday really becomes a game you want to win (Sorry Matt). “Lucked out” may not be the right phrase to describe the Twins performance against Cleveland in 2020, but their 7-2 record against them paired with Chicago’s 2-8 mark was what drove them to another division title. It might be a safer bet in 2021 to take the expected wins from the teams that are willing to give them rather than counting on beating up on tough opponents as they did in 2020 against a Cleveland team sporting one of the best rotations in baseball.

There isn’t much of a tangible fix to suggest moving forward other than to simply beat up on the bad teams in 2021. 2020 was a season of which much can be forgotten, and we can hope that the Twins' struggles against lesser competition was a result of small samples. Chicago still has a lineup that will feast on inferior pitching however and Cleveland’s rotation is built to mow through poor lineups. In what may be a dogfight for the A.L. Central crown, the Twins need to feed off of the teams they’re expected to beat. Will their struggles continue, or will they be able to rebound?

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