How the Twins Front Office Addressed Past Playoff Weaknesses

I don't even care about the 0-18. What are the next 18 playoff games going to be? 1991 was worst to first. 2021 could likely be world series champion MN Twins! We have plenty of talent thru out the whole team. I do find it amusing how there is always someone that will nitpick something about every player. Back in the 80s and 90s we were built by the farm system. We are finally back to that so we will have many successes thru out the next decade. How many teams in MLB have a serious chance at going 18-0 in their next 18 playoff games maybe 4 or 5? I'd include the Twins in that discussion.

Honestly, I can't think of anything that says we have a homer problem more than arguing that our 33 year old, 7 WAR career pitcher, is the second best pitcher in the AL. 

But wasn't he the runner up to the AL CY and his numbers just slightly off of Biebers?  He isn't exactly scrub material.  The Voting had him ahead of Garrett Cole.  Yeah short season, I get it and he is known to wear down but still it looks to me that he ranks right up there with the top pitchers in the AL.  He doesn't have to be the second best to be very valuable, but right now that appears to be his status.

The reality is that this FO inherited one of the best possible situations in 2017. They had a young team with numerous top 100 prospects only a year removed from challenging for a playoff spot. They had the #1 pick in the draft. They had an owner saying he'd spend money. This was a playoff ready team. They didn't build it. And they failed to augment it. They made a lot of moves, most - not all - are in the meh category. They quit on the team in 2017 but the players didn't. They brought back Molitor when it was clear they shouldn't have done that then they blamed their system failure season on him and brought in Rocco (a good move). It's not clear they know which players are building blocks and which players should not be. It's 2021 and our best hitting prospect and best pitching prospect were still acquired by the previous regime despite this FO having 6 first round picks, including 3 in the top 15. 

 

 

What does this even mean?  So you would say Andrew Friedman is a crappy GM because even though he had double the budget the Twins have and started with an ace pitcher he couldn't win the world series until last year with all those advantages so he sucks?  I don't get your point?  Cashman also should be fired for not delivering?  Tampa Bay and Oakland can never be good because they generally trade good players away and use their farm to build their team?  You lost me.

I get your overall point that on paper the Twins did not improve all that much but unless they have a 200M budget what moves were they going to make to get much better than they are right now?  The only potential bad contract on the team right now is Donaldson so what brilliant moves were going to move the needle and keep them within their budget?  There is a reason we get a supplemental pick every year as we are a lower revenue team that needs to build through the farm.

This is a good team.  The FO believes in the players they have and think they can improve on what they did last year.  I guess we will have to wait and see.

The article in question is simply not good. It's arguing that Colone, a cost saving signing, is how the FO is improving our post-season chances.

 

The reality is that this FO inherited one of the best possible situations in 2017. They had a young team with numerous top 100 prospects only a year removed from challenging for a playoff spot. They had the #1 pick in the draft. They had an owner saying he'd spend money. This was a playoff ready team. They didn't build it. And they failed to augment it. They made a lot of moves, most - not all - are in the meh category. They quit on the team in 2017 but the players didn't. They brought back Molitor when it was clear they shouldn't have done that then they blamed their system failure season on him and brought in Rocco (a good move). It's not clear they know which players are building blocks and which players should not be. It's 2021 and our best hitting prospect and best pitching prospect were still acquired by the previous regime despite this FO having 6 first round picks, including 3 in the top 15. 

 

We might be a playoff team, we should be. But our rotation looks to be middle of the road. Our offense could be bad, especially if the Rooker/Larnich/Kiriloff group can't come up and help out in LF.

 

Nelson Cruz was a good signing and I was in favor of adding Donaldson but that might really be a bad move. 

The team lost 100 games in 2016. By then, Buxton had made his catastrophic rookie debut, Sano had raised serious questions about his ability to not strike out and actually tap into his immense raw power in live action, and there were no obviously good pitching prospects other than Berrios, who had just made half a season's worth of starts at the MLB level with an ERA over 8. This was unambiguously not the rosy situation you remember.

In only a couple of years, Falvey and Levine have completely overhauled the team's player development system. They have modernized their approach to acquiring and developing pitchers. They have signed and traded for multiple impact players—Maeda, Colome, Donaldson, Odorizzi, and Pineda probably being the most notable. The majority of their transactions have indeed been unremarkable, but that's true of all 30 MLB teams. No one makes major transactions the majority of the time. Not one single team. There are only so many superstars to go around. Nonetheless, Falvey and Levine have built a consistent winner in Minnesota, and they've done so largely by raising the team's floor. This is a good team, and I'm sorry you aren't looking forward to watching them. Yes, it can all break down if certain players under perform or get hurt. But I guess I'd be angry as a Yankees fan if Cole, Judge, Stanton, etc. got hurt. I might believe Cashman didn't do enough during the off-season. I'd probably be wrong, though.

How many other AL contenders have a better #1 starter than Kenta Maeda? New York... anyone else? 

Cleveland, Chicago, A's, Blue Jays https://www.mlb.com/news/best-starting-rotations-heading-into-2021

The crazy thing about the playoffs is that everyone has good pitching, good hitting and usually good fielding.  The Twins won in 87 and 91 with all those attributes, but more important because they had attitude - Puckett, Hrbek, Morris, Gladden and others would not accept losing.   We had some good teams with Mauer and Morneau and a Minnesota Nice attitude.  Last two years we had good players and matched up with teams, but who stepped up and said - I am not going to lose?   So looking to this year, who has the fire, drive and leadership.  Don't say Cruz, he is a great DH, but he has been on the last two playoff teams.  

The time has come for Buxton, Sano and Berrios to become the studs we have been told they would be. One has to stay on the field for an entire season, one has to quit walking back to the dugout with his tail between his legs after another K and the other has to become a consistantly good pitcher everytime he takes the mound. If those 3 things happen this 2021 team has the chance to be very very good.

Thanks for the analysis. An 0-18 playoff streak is almost unimaginable. The improved defense will save runs, though BB and JD have to show they can stay on the field. I'm excited about the season. In the playoffs, I fear that the lack of an ace and a near-ace, unless they emerge as such, will be a stumbling block. But I'm hopeful. 

Cleveland, Chicago, A's, Blue Jays https://www.mlb.com/news/best-starting-rotations-heading-into-2021

Is that article about which teams have the best rotation, or the best #1 starter? Because the issue was clearly the latter.

Who on the A's staff is clearly better than Maeda? Who on the Blue Jays staff is clearly better?

 

We still have the same problem in playoffs - no true #1 starter and no lights out closer. . 

Remember Joe Nathan and Johan Santana? The playoff problems can't be simplified into lack of an ace and no lights out closer. Pitching was good last year. Maeda and Berrios were both great in the playoff series. Maeda finished 2nd in the Cy Young voting. 

Is that article about which teams have the best rotation, or the best #1 starter? Because the issue was clearly the latter.

 

Who on the A's staff is clearly better than Maeda? Who on the Blue Jays staff is clearly better?

Ryu is definitely better than any of the Twins starters. That's why he was an expensive FA signing. His career ERA is under 3. 

It also doesn't look like we've done anything to be anything other than a bully to the really crappy teams and can't win in the post-season. We have little depth. We rely far too much on "throw it against the wall and see what sticks" to our bench and pen. Our minor leagues seem to have decent depth but not huge upside. Levine hasn't shown he can make first rate trades and has been mocked a bit for the Dozier fiasco when he got here and how Houston fleeced him the next year. I think its fair to say that, after this year, he will have had five years as our GM and it's not clear he did enough to build around the young core he was gifted. I don't think that's a controversial statement. 

I do think it's pretty "controversial," insofar as every statement in that paragraph is either factually wrong or highly embellished. And just the general tenor of your comments is completely out of touch with reality in every possible way . . . from what's reasonable to expect from the minors, what amount of depth clubs have, how easy it apparently should be to acquire elite starting pitching with a mid-level payroll . . . the bottom line is that your take cannot be rationally justified. It's just an example of complaining for the sake (and enjoyment of) complaining.

Cleveland, Chicago, A's, Blue Jays https://www.mlb.com/news/best-starting-rotations-heading-into-2021

Well they weren't last year otherwise they would have finished ahead of him in the voting.  Sure every year is different and different guys emerge but the article never insinuated Maeda was bad or not top 5 or not top 10 etc. It just listed some of the best rotations out there.

You make some fair points in all your posts (not the Maeda one, that's absurd on its face) but it's just to over the top homerish for me. Colone is fixing the pen?  

 

I think this team is a playoff team. If Buxton can stay healthy, he's at least a 5 WAR player. He's that good. Berrios might have one more upgrade in him. But the all-or-nothing offensive approach and the bullpen games make this a boring team to me. Others may enjoy it. This team also has a bit of "full system failure" potential - again. Hopefully, that doesn't happen.

It also doesn't look like we've done anything to be anything other than a bully to the really crappy teams and can't win in the post-season. We have little depth. We rely far too much on "throw it against the wall and see what sticks" to our bench and pen. Our minor leagues seem to have decent depth but not huge upside. Levine hasn't shown he can make first rate trades and has been mocked a bit for the Dozier fiasco when he got here and how Houston fleeced him the next year. I think its fair to say that, after this year, he will have had five years as our GM and it's not clear he did enough to build around the young core he was gifted. I don't think that's a controversial statement. 

Dude are you serious?  Levine is so bad the Phillies wanted him for the top job in their organization.  Do you even read about Baseaball?  https://www.nbcsports.com/philadelphia/phillies/phillies-gm-thad-levine-twins-josh-byrnes-michael-hill  Note the words successful turn around in the article as well.

I am looking forward to the season but since the knives are out for you, I will have to agree with you here. They just haven’t pulled the trigger on the big one. Syndergaard might have been acquired in 2019 for Buxton, who reached his peak value on July 31 that year. Before that, Gerrit Cole, hundred million dollar pitcher, might have been had for the price of Nick Gordon and others. These trade ideas were discussed real time. It’s okay that they didn’t make these trades, and it should also be acceptable to point out that they could have.

 

I still like the Maeda trade, but we should temper our praise of it by acknowledging that the player we gave up was much better than expected. We’ll see how it plays out. In a hypothetical redraft, Maeda would not be the second AL starting pitcher chosen, not by a long shot, so I agree with you there, as well. Doesn’t mean I don’t like Maeda. I think he’s very good.

Also worth noting they gave up a shortstop who flamed out in A-ball for Odorizzi. He’s not Syndergaard (everyone would complain about the stupid trade for an injured starter if we acquired him), but he was an All-Star and pitched very well in the 2019 ALDS.

Falvey is a really good POBO.

Maeda trade was solid. So was the Odorizzi trade. He's not helpless. But he's made bad trades and hasn't - yet - traded for elite players. 

What are the bad deals? 

You're clearly underrating the Maeda deal, for whatever reason: the twins dealt a reliever for a starter and said starter was awesome in his first season and has a contract that's incredibly team-friendly. While the Dodgers may have gotten what they wanted as well, it's still an excellent deal for the Twins by basically reasonable measure.

by basically reasonable measure.

This is the sticking point.

The Maeda trade was good, but the guy we gave up for Maeda has already played a key part in a World Series championship and is on the verge of becoming one of the premiere relievers in baseball. Is that a fair assessment?

 

The Odorizzi trade was a steal. There have been some other trade wins and trade losses. Syndergaard was healthy for 2019 when we could have used him, and is already rehabbing for 2021.

 

If Alcala or Duran become elite, we’ll all share a laugh about this.

Agree it hurt to lose Graterol. We’ll see how he develops and if he ever starts again. Regardless, I think it’s an under appreciatd trade simply because of how good Maeda pitched and the contract he’s on. Off the top of my head, it’s arguably the best trade the organization has made since AJ went to San Francisco. I actually don’t think it really matters if Graterol becomes elite or flames out. Maeda pitched like a mad man last year and seems like he made some real improvements.

I just get frustrated when I see people making criticisms I don’t think are fair against people who have a really hard job that doesn’t really matter in the grand scheme of things. Baseball should be fun.

The Maeda trade was good, but the guy we gave up for Maeda has already played a key part in a World Series championship and is on the verge of becoming one of the premiere relievers in baseball. Is that a fair assessment?

The Odorizzi trade was a steal. There have been some other trade wins and trade losses. Syndergaard was healthy for 2019 when we could have used him, and is already rehabbing for 2021.

If Alcala or Duran become elite, we’ll all share a laugh about this.

This is some big-time goal-post moving on the Maeda deal. The concern with giving up Graterol was that he'd turn into a #1 or #2 starter, not that he'd be a solid 7th inning reliever. 

The Syndergaard thing never made sense, no MLB club would have made that deal. There's a reason he's still with the Mets. It's one thing to say the Twins should have traded for someone that, you know, actually got traded. This is something else entirely, and not at all a legitimate line of criticism.