How Much Has Molitor Helped?

Molitor’s main role in 2014 was as a baserunning coach. Sure, he aligned defenses and added an analytic flair to the process but his job was to improve the movement on the bases. Judging from raw numbers, the Twins made strides in this area. They went from first-to-third more often, they moved up bases on outs and they stole more bases.

Of all the personnel on the team from 2013 to 2014, Brian Dozier has most credited Molitor with making significant improvements to his running game. In terms of stolen bases, Dozier not only increased his number of steals but also posted a higher success rate.

Based on that, I ran through video of stolen base attempts hoping to find unquestionable evidence of Molitor’s influence in Dozier’s game. Like suicidal leads or telepathic jumps the moment the pitcher twitches a muscle. Any video confirmation that Molitor’s tutelage helped the second baseman swindle seven more bags in 2014. Alas, there was nothing concrete that said that since Molitor’s addition to the staff, Dozier started doing this differently and added more steals.

This is not to say that Molitor did not add some improvement to Dozier’s running game -- it is simply more of an effect that cannot be picked up from the three dozen or so clips of Dozier stealing available at MLBAM. Once StatCast is made ready to the general population we may be able to decipher if he is getting better jumps but for now the available data reveals little difference in his run game. The results are not related to a re-engineering of his mechanics, apparently, but rather an increase in his level of preparedness.

"It's been night and day compared to every other year, as far as dissecting pitchers, knowing exactly what they do, their tendencies, stuff like that,” Dozier told FoxSportsNorth.com’s Tyler Mason in May of this year. “[Molitor] has a five, 10-minute conversation with me before every game and every single thing that he's got on film from the pitcher, tendencies, everything."

Last year, Dozier did increase the number of attempts to steal third which often came against infields that were shifting against left-handed batters. After making a break for third three times in his first two seasons, Dozier bolted for the hot corner six times this year. Was that game plan created by Molitor -- or was Dozier just savvier in his third year when he perpetrated those thefts?

Beyond the pitchers, Molitor would also check out the environment. Each stadium’s infield cut is slightly different at first base. Some have big swooping cuts like Target Field while others like Oakland’s O.co Coliseum have small cutouts. In some cases, even one foot past the cut would be borderline insanity while in others two feet past the cut would still be a step-and-dive away from first. Before each game, Molitor would help establish where a runner’s lead should be.

“The cut on the grass at first base is different at every park,” Dozier told the Star Tribune’s Chip Scoggins after Molitor was introduced as the new manager. “He would get his lead and then visualize where that cut on the grass is right beneath his feet. So he would know the cut of the grass is at my right foot in a 14-foot lead. He would say, ‘OK, this is where my lead is tonight.’”

This advice may be able to provide a player like Dozier -- whose speed is not at the level of the Dodgers’ Dee Gordon or the Phillies’ Ben Revere -- an advantage that could provide a handful of successful stolen base attempts in a seasons.

Another element of his run game that is probably overlooked is his ability to execute a terrific slide. One thing that will stand out when reviewing Brian Dozier’s stolen base attempts of second base is that he rarely beats the throw to the base. Take this example of his successful swipe of second against the Indians in 2012. The throw beats him by a significant margin but because of his ability to stay to the outside with his body and keep his left hand in until the last second, Dozier gives shortstop Asdrubel Cabrera a minimal target.

http://i.imgur.com/5lInWHQ.gif

Yes, it may seem minor but when you review the film you see that Dozier’s head-first sliding abilities likely landed him several bases in the process. Against the Padres this year, Dozier may have “stolen” a base away from the National League West team by using misdirection by sliding far right of the base and slipping his hand in under. This leaves shortstop Jedd Gyorko who has the ball well in advance of Dozier to choose between tagging his hand or his body. Gyorko splits the difference and aims for the shoulder, allowing Dozier to slide his hand underneath.

http://i.imgur.com/SvWKyBT.gif

Since Dozier’s been implementing this slide since his rookie season (and possibly in the minor leagues as well), it is hard to attribute it directly to Molitor. It is possible that he helped refine it while Dozier was in the minors but it is not something created since Molitor was added to the coaching staff.

Comparing Dozier’s slide tactics to those of the game’s top base-stealers in Gordon (below) and the Astros’ Jose Altuve, you find that those fleet-of-foot individuals prefer the feet-first slide into second. Their speed in conjunction with getting good jumps allows them to beat many throws to the base and the feet-first slide gives them the ability to pop up and scamper to third if there happens to be an errant throw:

http://i.imgur.com/M7tNJCQ.gif

To see how much Dozier’s slide can help his numbers, consider the case of Chicago’s Adam Eaton. In 2014, Eaton swiped 15 bases in 24 attempts, a lower success rate than Dozier. Eaton, by most accounts, is faster than Dozier. According to Fangraphs.com’s Fan Scouting Reports, Eaton has scored a 79 speed score over his career. Dozier, meanwhile, is at 60 with his speed score. Eaton has good instincts and a good first step. But, unlike Dozier’s ballet around the base, Eaton is a bulldozer of a slider. While using the head-first slide, Eaton goes in direct and hard at the bag. On several occasions this has helped dislodge the ball but on others it has aided the opposing team by sliding directly into the tag:

What this boils down to is Dozier doing the little things to provide himself with an opportunity to gain 90 feet on the bases. It is knowing the pitcher, understanding the surroundings and executing a Ghostrider slide. How much of this is Molitor’s influence? That’s hard to say. Dozier spoke of how much Molitor prepared him and the team which has to add some factor. Clearly Molitor has had some influence when it comes to improving the running game, but how much and in what capacity is not known.