How Much Can The Twins Spend This Offseason?

On 6/20/2021 at 1:30 PM, TopGunn#22 said:

What I'd like to see in "theory."

C   JEFFERS      RORTVEDT  (Garver traded for pitching SP/BP)

1B   KIRILOFF     (SANO TRADED for whatever they can get)

2B   POLANCO/ARRAEZ

3B   ARRAEZ  (Donaldson traded).

SS  FA Signed.  STORY---The high end.  BAEZ---The low end.

OF   LARNACH--BUXTON--KIRILOFF--KEPLER

(I would do what is needed to keep Buxton and Berrios.  They are the cornerstones you would build around)

(Possibly trade Kepler if the deal is "right."

SP   BERRIOS, MAEDA, OBER, DURAN---2 FA signings.  Someone like a Gausman/Stroman/Duffy and a lower end vet.

BP   TAYLOR ROGERS, DUFFEY, ALCALA, ROBLES--not as a closer, and I agree, 2 more FA BP signings with one of them being the guy that would be our closer.  I really wanted Rosenthal or Yates...and both got hurt very early, so I would have wasted the money this year.  But I still think one of those two as the presumptive closer and another steady vet arm to help stabilize the BP.  

I want to see CHANGE.  I've loved Cruz as our DH but when the N.L. opens up 15 more slots he can go elsewhere and the DH spot can have many players rotate through.  I say goodbye to Sano. PERIOD.  The Twins are not as BAD as they've played this season, but they have a LOT of flaws.  Build around Buxton and Berrios, cut bait on guys like Sano, Donaldson, and possibly Kepler.  

No Rooker?

Sticking only to the OP....

1] Agreed it's way too soon to speculate but I appreciate John's efforts with the trade deadline comingup.

2] Part of the reason it's too early is 2021 revenue is impossible to determine at this point. And I don't have current projections and goodness knows what the Twins are speculating only 1/3 of the season gone. And yes, it appears the Twins are done from a competitive standpoint this season. But with better health and better overall play this team may be able to reach .500. Further, with 100% capacity and fans just wanting to do to the park after not being able to in 2020 has to have some affect, not to mention a team featuring a group of talented youngsters they may want to see. So this is going to be fluid.

However....and I hate to reference John's and Aaron's podcast but I need to....I believe the Twins will be taking a "re-load" view for 2022 and not a "re-build". And I've stated this myself as well previously. The difficult part of this is the delayed and shortened milb season and now some injuries and potential set-backs that affect the "re-tooling on the fly" aspect that the FO clearly had in mind.

Allowing for at least decent gate receipts, the debuts of some promising prosoects, and a few more that will inevitably follow, and a roster that is by no means devoid of talent, a re-tool seems in order. So with all of that being said, I believe the FO/ownership will push the 2022 payroll back up in to the $140-145M payroll area. That gives them about $45+M to spend barring trade surprises.

Had this team just done what was expected of them, I could have argued higher, but that's not what happened.

I say pending surprises because I just don't see Donaldson or Sano moving unless the Twins kick in substantial $, especially in the case of Donaldson. And at that point, I don't know that you've really gained enough value and flexibility to even make a move worthwhile. And it's not like Donaldson, in particular, is a bad player. 

I am not going to break down an entire roster at this point, it would be a sloppy back of the napkin to be sure. But I just don't see a 41yo Cruz back. But I do see Robles back to combine with Rogers, Duffey and Alcala to allow for the nucleus of a solid pen. And I'd keep Garver as a backup catcher and 1B who also DH a lot to keep him in the lineup almost daily. Larnach and Kirilloff are here to stay and will only get better. Gordon is getting a long and deserved look as part of the 2022 roster as a utility player. Rooker still has a shot. Refsnyder MIGHT have changed his approach enough to be a viable RH bench ootion who could fill in a lot of places. I'm sure not counting on he and Gordon, but we have 2/3 of a season to see if they could be real bench options for next season.

ASSUMING for just a moment that either Berrios and/or Buxton were signed to extensions, they might eat up part of the $45M I'm saying the Twins have to spend. But most of their $ would be for 2023 and beyond. Unless there is another Odorizzi/Maeda trade out there, the FO will need to spend a legitimate $14-18M on a SP. 

The $45M starts to be whittled down rather quickly, but there's still room, IMO, for an OF depth piece and a couple RP arms to add to the nucleus in place and the "other" arms currently on hand.

I'm confused/concerned about an ever day SS, but maybe Simmons again or someone like a Galvis, though I'm not sure what he signed for last off-season. Just spitballing. 

You have to be smart. You have to see what the remaining 2/3 of the season brings you if course. Do Ober and Dobnak continue to advance and look like options? Is Duran OK and finishes the season strong? How about Winder, Sands and Balazovic finishing strong? Is Barnes at least a solid option? (He's surprised me in performance and advancement thus far). 

Too many variables! But I'm sticking with "re-tool" and about $45M to spend.