How MLB’s Delayed Start Could Impact Minnesota’s Rotation

We’ll break the rotation down into small pairings who share similar potential impacts based on the delay. All of the results would be magnified or altered depending on the length of the delay.

Avoiding the second-half breakdown – Jose Berrios/Kenta Maeda

“Breakdown” might be a bit hyperbolic, but both starters have had their struggles in the second half. By now Twins fans are well-versed in Jose Berrios’s annual-August slumps, and he has gone as far as to alter both his late season and offseason routines in an attempt to circumvent the late-season collapse. It may not matter. If the season is delayed long enough, Berrios needn’t worry about wearing down. Less innings could theoretically assist Berrios in maintaining his velocity throughout the season or even ramping it up a bit in the case of a significantly shortened season.

Kenta Maeda’s second-half splits aren’t quite as dramatic as Berrios’, but whether due to ineffectiveness or concerns about his durability, he was largely shifted to the bullpen for the late- and post-season while pitching for Los Angeles. Maeda has been vocal about his preference of staying in the starter’s role and the shortened season should all but guarantee it (although he was likely to remain a starter with the Twins regardless).

The reduced innings may help both starters to remain effective throughout the season, but I must admit I was looking forward to seeing if Berrios' altered routine would make a difference and how Maeda would hold up after a full season of starts (However, I’ll happily settle for baseball, period!)

Assisting the injury-prone – Rich Hill/Homer Bailey

The best-case scenario had Rich Hill joining the team in June, which still may or may not happen, but the shortened season means Hill is likely to pitch in a greater percentage of games. The Twins and Hill will want to ensure that he is ready to go, but the shorter the season gets, the more Minnesota may need Hill. Fewer games means less time for the best teams to separate themselves from the pack. A healthy Hill might be Minnesota’s best pitcher and a shortened season would make his impact all the more, well...impactful.

Unlike Hill, Homer Bailey will start the season in full health, but the injury-prone label fits Bailey like a glove. The 163.1 innings he threw last season were his most since 2013. That seems like the pinnacle of what we should expect in innings totals at this point in his career, so shortening the season a bit should be to his benefit.

Suspension uncertainty – Michael Pineda

The world is full of uncertainty right now and baseball is no exception. How MLB will handle players with suspensions remains to be seen. The most likely course would be to reduce the suspension lengths in proportion to the reduction of the season length. This would mean that Pineda would appear in the same percentage of overall games, but the actual amount of time from opening day to Pineda’s first start would be reduced. The reduced real-time length in addition to Hill’s return would most affect guys in the back of the rotation like Bailey and our next pitcher…

The fifth starter – Randy Dobnak

Based on the end of last season and the results from spring training, Randy Dobnak seems destined to grab the last spot in the rotation. The question will be for how long? The later the delay, the worse for Dobnak, as he would have less time to entrench himself into the rotation before the return of Hill and/or Pineda. It’s not inconceivable that he could out-pitch Bailey, but the veteran’s contract status may give Bailey a longer leash and at some point it becomes a numbers game. Six-man rotation anyone?

The Young Guns – Jhoan Duran/Jordan Balazovic

If you think hinting at a six-man rotation was ridiculous, you may want to skip this paragraph. A significantly shortened season would erase any innings-limit concerns. While this would be relevant for pitchers returning from injury, it could also apply to minor leaguers who normally would have reached an inning limit by the end of the minor league season. So theoretically, if a high-upside arm like Jhoan Duran or Jordan Balazovic were to spend the majority of the minor league season (which would also have a significant delay in this scenario) dominating AA or even AAA hitters, they will not have reached an innings-limit and would be available if needed at the MLB level. Likely? Not at all. But as has been strikingly apparent of late, we’d be unwise to discount the unexpected.

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