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  • How Long of a Leash Should Dylan Bundy Get?


    Cody Pirkl

    Some say you learn more from losing than from winning. 2021 in that case should have provided the Twins with an exorbitant amount of knowledge. Will we see them learn from their 2021 meltdown?

    Image courtesy of Scott Taetsch-USA TODAY Sports

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    On Wednesday night in Baltimore, Dylan Bundy took away any possibility of a Twins win for the second straight start. While recording just 11 outs, Bundy surrendered 11 hits, two walks, two home runs, and nine earned runs. For the second straight start, he allowed a string of five-plus hitters to reach base safely without recording an out, a feat that’s rare enough to wonder whether it could possibly be a fluke. After dazzling in his first three starts, Bundy has absolutely cratered his season line.

     

    The result of this is a reality check for Twins fans on a pitcher who’s failing to crack 90 mph and posted an ERA over 6.00 in 2021. Having signed for $5m, Bundy should have never been expected to provide premium innings, even after his first three starts. The question is whether the Twins' front office has received this same reality check.

    The issues were plentiful for the 2021 Twins, but starting pitching was arguably #1 on the list. The signings of J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker, whom the Twins had identified as values in the offseason, turned out to be two of the worst pitchers in all of baseball and provided the Twins with a predetermined loss every 4th and 5th day. Despite this fact, Shoemaker remained in the rotation until the end of June and Happ remained until he was somehow traded at the deadline. Both proved that pitching signings of their tier simply don’t warrant a whole lot of patience. Neither has a job in Major League Baseball in 2022.

    Context is key in this scenario, as by the time they need to move on became abundantly clear, the Twins season was effectively over already. The farm system also suffered from a wide range of pitching injuries, leaving the Twins with several bullpen days per week and no replacement options for the rotation. In short, the goal became crossing off innings rather than filling them in a meaningful way. In 2022, things have to be different.

    Two starts make up just a small percentage of a pitcher’s season-long workload, and plenty of high-quality arms will struggle for such a short stretch. For that reason it’s not yet time to make any significant moves with Dylan Bundy. That being said, it is time for the Twins to feel some skepticism towards the 29-year-old right-hander. After watching three starts and wondering whether any kind of success could continue given Bundy’s visible lack of stuff, these last two starts may be the beginning of our answer.

    Unlike 2021, the Twins simply have too many alternatives to allow Bundy to become a deciding factor in their 2022 season. Their financial commitment to him is too low, as are the odds of him factoring into any long-term plans. With him headed to the COVID IL, we should get to see more from Josh Winder for another start or two, although it’s very likely Bundy gets a chance to reclaim his spot in the rotation. In the meantime, if Josh Winder continues to stake his claim to a rotation spot, it may leave the Twins set up to act quickly if Bundy doesn’t rebound.

    For what it’s worth, they’ve shown early signs of learning from their mistakes in 2021. After sticking with Alex Colomé through one of the worst months by a reliever in franchise history, the Twins were very quick to pull the plug on Tyler Duffey in high leverage this season after his early struggles. I would guess their lack of patience with a homegrown former staple of their bullpen foreshadows a very short leash for a one-year bounceback candidate in the rotation.

    At this point one thing is certain, Dylan Bundy is currently the last man on the totem pole that is the Twins rotation. The wounds that 2021 left in Twins Territory are still fresh in the minds of fans as many already wonder “How many more starts can we let this happen?”. For a front office that was seemingly so eager to show off the arrival of their pitching pipeline, my best bet would be “Not much longer” as the Twins attempt to make a worst to first rebound in 2022. How long of a leash should Dylan Bundy get?


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    Oh, I forgot the thread topic: How long a leash...

    One more game. It is entirely Bundy's decision whether he wants to be a successful crafty veteran or a pathetic has-been power pitcher. He's got sufficient command of his off-speed stuff to get a lot of whiffs. He can spot his so-so fastball to the corners. Why not stick to the plan?

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    Bundy putting up those first 3 games was pretty hilarious after all the angst in the off season about him being the best pitching addition.  Even when succeeding it was still apparent he is a back of the rotation piece at best.  

    I do think continued work with this coaching staff could improve his pitch mix and approach.  He is valuable as a decent 4/5 vet starter but may just not have a spot in this rotation.

    Gray/ Ryan are locked in the top spots, Paddack/ Ober/ Winder all have much more upside, and Archer has a higher ceiling as the reclamation project.

    He still may be very worth keeping around if you can, 1-7 in the rotation there are no pitchers you can count on a full season from. 

     

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    THIS year is completely different than LAST year.  In 2021 every move the Twins FO made that could have proved terrible, was indeed...TERRIBLE.  This was further exacerbated by the injuries and uncertainty of all the young pitchers in the pipeline.

    Bundy was tremendous in his first several starts and we all knew it wasn't sustainable.  He's probably not as bad as his last two starts and in fact, as others have pointed out, may have been weakened by Covid in his last start.  But this year Ryan is showing last year wasn't a fluke.  Winder is showing he BELONGS.  Gray, Archer and Paddock have been good pickups.  There is DEPTH.  And now, with Balazovic having a solid first start at St. Paul and Woods-Richardson off to a great start the pipeline is fully in place and poised to help as the season progresses.

    I see Archer as superior to Bundy but unable to consistently go 5-6 innings.  So how long would I stick with Bundy ?  Not long in the starting rotation, and to be determined if he's a long relief option out of the bullpen.  The Twins have options now, and even with innings limits on all of the young pitchers they could still have a use and a role for Bundy.  But the ice on the lake is getting thinner and thinner under his feet.  More outings like the last two will hasten his departure.  If he's able to stabilize and find something consistent that falls between his Bob Gibson-like start to the season vs his Happ/Shoemaker last two starts Bundy will have a place on the Twins pitching staff.

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    I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt on the last start, since he went Covid positive right after it. However, if he gets hammered in his next couple starts after coming back, I'd have to pull him. No way do we want this to evolve into a Shoemaker or Happ kind of situation. We've got a little bit of pitching depth right now, and I never could see the point of a 6 man rotation. I'd give him a very short leash. 

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    17 hours ago, se7799 said:

    Winder will be a steady force in our rotation.  I can't stress this enough, he is on a innings limit this year.  He is doing exactly ? what he should be doing.  So are many others.  You do know our best pitcher Ryan wasn't one of our own?  But acquired from outside of the organization.  What's your solution?

    Keep pitching Ryan and assume he is one of our own.  Keep young arms moving in and out and getting experience but ride the ones that are succeeding. 

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    On 5/7/2022 at 7:23 AM, mikelink45 said:

    I have no patience for reclamation vets, when we have such great pitching prospects. Winder has now established that he belongs in the rotation. And I am happy to have all of the low budget veterans struggle for the fifth spot on the rotation. But can the front office and management admit that our own players are better and cut their losses

    What do they do if the young ones are not better, who do they turn to then?

    Just keep rolling the dice like last year?

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    1 hour ago, RpR said:

    What do they do if the young ones are not better, who do they turn to then?

    Just keep rolling the dice like last year?

    I think we can see that our young ones are better.  If we did not have the stable of young arms that we possess I would have to offer a different solution.

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    I do not want to see Bundy get regular starts for half a year if he keeps giving up 5 plus runs in 3 to 5 innings.  However, we have needed 7 starting pitchers so far to not have a bullpen game yet.  We may have some more that could step in, but to assume we can go a full season with just 5 guys is never going to happen.  If everyone is healthy and Bundy keeps having dud starts, I would want to transition him to long relief role with emergency starts when needed.

    Paddock just went down with possible long term injury, more to come today on that.  Winder is doing great in 2 starts but Bundy did great in 3 starts and we are talking about pulling him after 2 bad starts.  There is no reason to think Winder will be like this all year, but there is no reason to think he will fully flop either, but the point is to just say lets cut Bundy because we have 6 other guys that could step in now is kind of crazy.  Ober still out with injury, Gray just made it back.  

    Bundy will stick with team for awhile.  I just hope if he keeps putting up similar starts as last 2 he gets moved to pen unless needed in starting roll.  When the other 6 guys are healthy each should get starts over Bundy if he keeps pitching like last 2.  However, he had 3 great starts and 2 bad lets cut him some slack that teams may have made an adjustment to him, now can he adjust again. 

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    I don't think it's a good strategy to treat acquired free agents or any other player as disposal.  Players and agents are quite aware of how a given organization treats players.  It's not a good idea from an asset management standpoint or a reputation / relationship standpoint to just jettison a veteran player.  It's hard enough to attract players to Minnesota as it is.  The new regime has managed to sign Donaldson and Correa.  We should not forget about the benefit of being seen as a good organization to play for while making this type of personnel decision.

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    With the Paddack injury, Bundy is sixth in the starting pitcher pecking order IMHO. Ryan, Gray, Ober, Winder, Archer and then Bundy. Obviously Ober is still on the IL, so Bundy will get starts until either he or Paddack is ready to go. It might be necessary to continue with a six-man rotation if only to limit innings for Winder and perhaps Ober. With Gray not ready to go deep and Archer apparently unable to get past 4 innings, there remain too many bullpen innings and the Twins would seem to need multinnings from several relievers. 

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    11 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

    I don't think it's a good strategy to treat acquired free agents or any other player as disposal.  Players and agents are quite aware of how a given organization treats players.  It's not a good idea from an asset management standpoint or a reputation / relationship standpoint to just jettison a veteran player.  It's hard enough to attract players to Minnesota as it is.  The new regime has managed to sign Donaldson and Correa.  We should not forget about the benefit of being seen as a good organization to play for while making this type of personnel decision.

    I think there are fairly clear free agent tiers and both players and agents understand the thickness of the ice while signing the contract. Bundy and his team had to know that his very modest deal was a boon for him and they were lucky to get more than a MiLB deal with a chance to make a rotation in spring training.

    If at the time of the signing every Twins fan was putting his over/under DFA date at June 1, no one in league circles is going to hold it against the team when the inevitable happens.

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    8 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

    I think there are fairly clear free agent tiers and both players and agents understand the thickness of the ice while signing the contract. Bundy and his team had to know that his very modest deal was a boon for him and they were lucky to get more than a MiLB deal with a chance to make a rotation in spring training.

    If at the time of the signing every Twins fan was putting his over/under DFA date at June 1, no one in league circles is going to hold it against the team when the inevitable happens.

    I agree.  It's just a matter of degree and my reaction was to those who say give him another game or two.  That's poor asset management and just to reactionary to not be looked down upon by players and agents.  How would any of us view an employer that treated employees as disposable.  MLB is a unique context but there is still likely the expectation of a reasonable chance.   Now, if he throws 3 or 4 more clunkers in a row or 4 of 6 games with something like 5 runs allowed and our other SPs are healthy, it becomes more palatable as well as more practical.

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    2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

    I agree.  It's just a matter of degree and my reaction was to those who say give him another game or two.  That's poor asset management and just to reactionary to not be looked down upon by players and agents.  How would any of us view an employer that treated employees as disposable.  MLB is a unique context but there is still likely the expectation of a reasonable chance.   Now, if he throws 3 or 4 more clunkers in a row or 4 of 6 games with something like 5 runs allowed and our other SPs are healthy, it becomes more palatable as well as more practical.

    Obviously the individual employee might feel slighted, he shouldn't as he has to know his skills are declining, but I don't know his mindset. But if the rest of the team views the young pitchers, who Bundy would usurp, as better baseball players, then you're slighting 25 other players instead of the one player. Again, I don't know mindsets, but I think most of these guys want the best team out there to win games more than they want to appease a veteran pitcher.

    I think Bundy's modest $5M deal in and of itself made it clear he was expendable as soon as better options emerged. This is his third team, he had to understand how this works by now.

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    17 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

    Obviously the individual employee might feel slighted, he shouldn't as he has to know his skills are declining, but I don't know his mindset. But if the rest of the team views the young pitchers, who Bundy would usurp, as better baseball players, then you're slighting 25 other players instead of the one player. Again, I don't know mindsets, but I think most of these guys want the best team out there to win games more than they want to appease a veteran pitcher.

    I think Bundy's modest $5M deal in and of itself made it clear he was expendable as soon as better options emerged. This is his third team, he had to understand how this works by now.

    Again, I agree with much of this and I am not sure how MLB players think because I have not managed in that industry which is quite unique.  I have had responsibility for thousands of other skilled employees.  They tend to have an employee centric bias in how they view management actions.  They don't want to be treated that way should their performance suffer at some point.  They share an ominous fact which is that their careers are short and they all want as much longevity as possible.  They are well aware of minority of guys that got better in their early 30s and they want to believe they can extend their careers.  Again, I agree Bundy should not get the kind they gave veterans last year given the depth of young guys.  I just don't agree it's a good idea to cut Bundy without giving him an adequate chance to right the ship.

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