Twins Video
In their early days on the job, the new CBO and GM were clear about their intentions to build a foundation for sustainable success, acknowledging that it might be a gradual process. Falvey laid out his vision for a "data-driven" collaboration. Levine spoke of making "thoughtful decisions that are designed for the future of this organization."
On the surface, trading Dozier – a veteran star in his prime, who is highly unlikely to play on a championship-caliber team here during the two remaining years on his contract – would seem to be the very definition of such a move.
But as we discussed late last week, Minnesota's front office has been stonewalled in its efforts to extract ample value for Dozier. Clearly, the newly installed executive duo entered this offseason with a specific valuation of Dozier, unshaded by familiarity with him as a person or his intangible value to the franchise. Clearly, suitors have been unwilling to meet it, for reasons outlined in last week's post.
In the comments section for that article, some readers opined that the Twins should simply lower their sights and take what they can get for Dozier, which at this point appears to be Jose De Leon and not much else. It's a reasoned take because, in the big-picture view, De Leon has a much better chance of contributing to a contender in two years and beyond.
But there's another big picture to look at, framed within Target Field and its many offices and operations. Beneath the new leadership structure, there are many returning employees, including the players on the roster. They are forming their own opinions of Falvey and Levine, who are both assuming top decision-making roles for the first time. Respect is earned, not given, and in the eyes of longtime Twins people who were loyal to Terry Ryan, these relatively inexperienced successors have big shoes to fill.
How is it going to look if their first major trade involves shipping out the team's best player for a return that blatantly falls well short of expectations? How does it look to the guys in the clubhouse if their exemplary leader, viewed as a linchpin in efforts to rebound and return to contention, is removed and replaced by a rookie with no record of big-league success? How will the "Screw 2017, we'll do whatever it takes to get better in three years" approach be received by Paul Molitor as a lame duck manager who desperately needs to improve, in short order, to keep his job?
And how much are these perceptions worsened if De Leon's shoulder flares up in the spring, or his initial struggles carry over to his first full season, or he ends up in the bullpen? If the Twins aren't getting back any additional pieces, there's no alternative opportunity to recoup value.
Falvey knows about the importance of bolstering your odds. He comes from an organization that benefitted greatly from receiving quantity in these blockbusters.
When the Indians traded CC Sabathia to the Brewers back in 2008, it wasn't headliner Matt LaPorta who ended up achieving star status but rather the "player to be named later" rounding out the package, who turned out to be Michael Brantley. When Cleveland traded Cliff Lee to Philadelphia a year later, four prospects of similar standing came back but only one truly panned out: Carlos Carrasco, who was a staple in their division-winning 2016 rotation.
Of course, playing the odds works both ways. Any realist needs to acknowledge that the odds are very much against Minnesota making a dramatic jump and actually competing for a postseason spot in 2017. In the scope of long-term rebuilding, keeping Dozier is counterproductive in two important ways: it deprives the system of a top-tier talent in De Leon, with a lesser return likely if they make a deal down the line, and it forces Jorge Polanco to keep playing out of position at shortstop.
Falvey is a calculating and analytical guy who earned a degree in economics. With the Indians, he learned under some of the game's most revered negotiators and evaluators. Same goes for Levine, who served as Jon Daniels' right-hand man in Texas.
If Ryan were still in charge, I could see a stronger case for the Twins irrationally overvaluing their own asset. Such instances were not uncommon during his tenure. But the individuals charged with this Dozier decision are coming into the situation with clear eyes, and no inherent illusions about the current state of the organization.
Tying this scenario to Falvey's area of speciality, there is an oft-cited concept in economics called opportunity cost. It is defined as "the loss of potential gain from other alternatives when one alternative is chosen," or more simply, the benefits that you give up by choosing one option over the other.
In our present situation, the Twins are evidently prepared to leave a major prize on the table, as they've judged the positives of holding their ground and hanging onto Dozier to outweigh the value of acquiring De Leon.
You can argue with the merits of their conclusion, but I don't think you can deny it's a thoughtful decision that meshes with a data-driven mindset.
MORE FROM TWINS DAILY
— Latest Twins coverage from our writers
— Recent Twins discussion in our forums
— Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
— Become a Twins Daily Caretaker
Recommended Comments
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.