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  • How Brett Lawrie's Trade Altered My Thinking


    Seth Stohs

    It seems like a minor trade, and it probably is in the big picture, but when the White Sox acquired 3B Brett Lawrie from the Oakland A’s on Wednesday, it spoke volumes to me. How does that trade alter my opinion on the Twins trading Trevor Plouffe? Well, you’ll just have to read on to find out.

    Image courtesy of Brace Hemmelgarn, USA Today (2013)

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    It was another trade that went through at baseball’s Winter Meetings. Some transactions are big. Others, not so much. But when I saw that the Oakland A’s had traded third baseman Brett Lawrie to the White Sox in exchange for RHP JB Wendelken and LH Zach Erwin, I thought it was a bit noteworthy.

    I did a little research, checking out the two prospects that the A’s will receive from Chicago, and it speaks volumes to why Terry Ryan has been so adamant on not trading Trevor Plouffe.

    JB Wendelken is a 22-year-old right-handed pitcher. He was originally drafted by the Red Sox, but he went to the White Sox during the 2013 season. He was given an opportunity to start at High-A in 2014, but he went 7-10 with a 5.26 ERA in 27 starts. So, this year, he was moved to the bullpen and did well in AA but struggled in AAA. That’s solid for a 22-year-old. He’s a solid relief pitcher prospect, but he’s certainly not considered a top prospect.

    Zach Erwin was the White Sox fourth-round pick in 2015 out of Clemson. He’s got some projectability and had a nice pro debut. Between rookie league ball and Low A, he went 2-2 with a 1.34 ERA in 40.1 innings. He walked seven and struck out 30. He is also not a top prospect.

    Both of these guys are OK prospects, but they’re not going to pitch in the big leagues any time soon, and their upsides are considered marginal.

    So, what does this have to do with the Twins? Well, we entered the offseason thinking – maybe even assuming – that Terry Ryan would trade Trevor Plouffe. In the last two weeks, he has been adamant about the Twins having no plans to trade Plouffe. He said it at Byung Ho Park’s press conference, and he has reiterated it to the media gathered in Nashville this week.

    Maybe it was just me, but even with him saying that so strongly, I was about 50-50 on whether or not the Twins would trade their talented third baseman.

    After seeing what the A’s got for Lawrie, it’s pretty clear that Ryan likely didn’t get much more offered in his discussions.

    Do I think Trevor Plouffe is better than Brett Lawrie? Yes. No question.

    However, Lawrie is three-and-a-half years younger. He’s still just 25 for another month. That likely matters in trade discussion.

    Of course, I don’t have any information on what discussions went like when Terry Ryan took those phone calls from other GMs asking about Plouffe. We don’t know what range of player/prospect was being offered. However, I think we can make some legitimate assumptions based on what Billy Beane got from the White Sox for Brett Lawrie.

    As we have said all along, the Twins do not have to trade Plouffe. Miguel Sano can play in the outfield. It’ll take some learning and adjustments, but he can do it, at least for the short term. Plouffe will only make between $7.5 and $8 million in 2016 which is not an issue for the Twins’ budget. He’s got another year of arbitration-eligibility next offseason.

    Who knows? Maybe I’ll post this article and an hour later the Twins will have traded Plouffe. But, although I get the desire for Sano to play third base, his natural position, if the Twins only acquire a package similar to the Lawrie package, I would be very disappointed.

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    Santanna

    Gibson

    Hughes

    Milone

    Nolasco

    All on a short leash because of Duffey and Berrios in AAA. If they are not willing to go on DL for a phantom injury then cut them because they are not into winning.

    And Mays makes 8.  Don't forget about Mays.  I think Mays should swap with Nolasco.  Mays has earned a spot in the rotation.  Let Nolasco prove that he can handle some multi inning relief appearances before letting him start again.

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    It's only "depth" if you don't move your big, power hitting stud of a young player to the outfield. 

     

    Plouffe isn't the problem, the problem is Mauer.  Unfortunately that means Plouffe is the one that should move around, not Sano.

    No, that actually means whoever is not a prime fielder at his position should move. If that means we are talking about the 4 of Mauer, Sano, Plouffe and Park that puts Plouffe as the player that doesn't move.

    You are right in that Mauer should be in the running to move but,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

     

    But back to my first post. Having one of Mauer,Plouffe,Arcia or Sano on the bench every day is not a bad thing over a long season.

     

    If you can't/won't do the role asked of you then maybe you aren't interested in winning and I don't care who you are. Play 5 of 7 games and show me that you should be in there for 6!!

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    Juggling an extra bat is not a bad thing at all, but doing so at the sake of Sano being the everyday 3rd baseman for as long as he possibly can is.  Juggle Plouffe, Mauer, Park, RF, and some Sano DH days to your hearts content but give 3rd to Sano. 

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    It's only "depth" if you don't move your big, power hitting stud of a young player to the outfield.

     

    Plouffe isn't the problem, the problem is Mauer. Unfortunately that means Plouffe is the one that should move around, not Sano.

    It's still depth unless someone declares that... (Insert player here) will never play... Let's say 3B again.

     

    The Twins would never do that because it makes no sense.

     

    That would be like taking a career catcher and moving him to 1B and saying he will never play catcher again.

     

    The Twins just wouldn't do that.

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    Random Thought

     

    I have both Sano and Kris Bryant as keepers on my Fantasy baseball team. I'm grateful that Kris Bryant is also OF eligible and...

     

    Bryant is OF eligible because Joe Maddon moved him to the OF for enough games to qualify.

     

    Maddon did the same thing with Schwarber and it didn't kill Bryant or Schwarber or the Cubs.

     

    I'm also happy that Sano might have OF eligibility because that flexibility is helpful to me as a fantasy team owner and It was also helpful to the Cubs and...

     

    It will be helpful to the Twins.

     

    Maybe just maybe we can get our best bats in the lineup...

     

    Maybe

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    It's still depth unless someone declares that... (Insert player here) will never play... Let's say 3B again.

    The Twins would never do that because it makes no sense.

    That would be like taking a career catcher and moving him to 1B and saying he will never play catcher again.

    The Twins just wouldn't do that.

     

    So you think they're going to take Sano out of the outfield this year if Plouffe is hurt?

     

    Or is it more likely Nunez plays and Sano stays in the outfield.  So that depth really isn't depth unless Sano has suddenly become a utility player.

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    So you think they're going to take Sano out of the outfield this year if Plouffe is hurt?

     

    Or is it more likely Nunez plays and Sano stays in the outfield.  So that depth really isn't depth unless Sano has suddenly become a utility player.

    I'm Hopeful and that's as far as I'll go.

     

    I'm hoping Molitor will be able to make a decision between Arcia and Nunez and make the best decision.

     

    Hoping

     

    I don't always get what I want

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    I think it's telling that as winter meetings are coming to an end Sano was recalled from playing winter ball. Despite the lip service given to the Sano to outfield move I think they were trying to move Plouff and Ryan just didn't get an offer that he felt was worth it. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if the -out of options- Santana were the opening day center fielder until they feel Buxtons bat is ready to play.

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    For the record, I've never been a "Plouffe must go" believer. Depth of talent is a great thing, and there is  no reason you couldn't move guys in and out of spots and the lineup here and there. Also, I'm excited about Park's potential and think the move was a great one. But put these two ideas together, and there is a bit of a conundrum. I know these things often have a way of simply working themselves out, but there is a bit of an oddity to the roster right now.

     

    To be fair, there is still time to work these things out. There are still CF options out there if the Twins feel Buxton is better served spending time in Rochester. There is still time for a Plouffe move if the right offer/opportunity comes along. And there are still some solid options for a RH hitting OF to mix and match with Rosario and Arcia if Sano were to be moved back to 3B with said theoretical Plouffe move.

     

    I don't think it's time to hit the panic button on anything just yet. I'm still more concerned, at this point, with the bullpen, particularly from the left side.

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    I think Santana can have a solid career but not as a top of the order bat. Mostly as a super utility (rich mans nick Punto) who can be a stop gap at SS if need be (rich mans Nick Punto)

    Agreed. As of now, that is also how I see him, super utility, versatile help offensively off the bench.

     

    But if you look at his milb track record and his rookie year, and for a moment ignore his disappointing 2015, you can see the potential. He certainly wouldn't be the first guy to not be able to handle ever day duty in the infield but find himself in the OF. At that point, I could see him bloom with just a little more discipline. Based on talent, previous results, but again, ignoring '15. LOL

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    If I  were Sano, and was getting jerked around like this after all these years, I would want to be traded to a team that would at least give me a chance, just a chance, to show them that I can do the job I have been groomed to do before being asked to switch to an unfamiliar position just as I arrived.

     

    Sano would probably have more trade value too.

    Edited by h2oface
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    Agreed. As of now, that is also how I see him, super utility, versatile help offensively off the bench.

     

    But if you look at his milb track record and his rookie year, and for a moment ignore his disappointing 2015, you can see the potential. He certainly wouldn't be the first guy to not be able to handle ever day duty in the infield but find himself in the OF. At that point, I could see him bloom with just a little more discipline. Based on talent, previous results, but again, ignoring '15. LOL

     

    What track record are you speaking to exactly? He was never a particularly good minor leaguer, yeah he was always a little young for his level but he was never really considered much of a prospect.  I guess he was decent in Fort Meyers in 2012? Why do you think his bat will translate to OF, it was sketchy even at SS.  Who do you prefer him over, Rosario, Buxton, Kepler or Sano?  So many questions... 

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    If I  were Sano, and was getting jerked around like this after all these years, I would want to be traded to a team that would at least give me a chance, just a chance, to show them that I can do the job I have been groomed to do before being asked to switch to an unfamiliar position just as I arrived.

     

    Sano would probably have more trade value too.

     

    How is Sano being jerked around? By maybe moving to the OF? Position changes happen all the time, even with elite players.

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    How is Sano being jerked around? By maybe moving to the OF? Position changes happen all the time, even with elite players.

     

    Yes. To get to this final level and not even get an opportunity to perform in the position that is familiar, that is the only position you have been groomed for throughout the long minor league progression, and thrown into one when he finally reaches the top level that is totally unfamiliar.  It is one thing to get the chance and fail, another to not even get a shot. 

    Edited by h2oface
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    If I were Sano, and was getting jerked around like this after all these years, I would want to be traded to a team that would at least give me a chance, just a chance, to show them that I can do the job I have been groomed to do before being asked to switch to an unfamiliar position just as I arrived.

     

    Sano would probably have more trade value too.

    "All these years"? He's 22 and in the big leagues.

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    "All these years"? He's 22 and in the big leagues.

     

    You can make light of it if you like. All these 6 years with the Twins org as far as I can tell - 27% of his life. I can still identify with being 22, and what it is like. At 22, I would think I am being jerked around to not even get a chance to play third and prove myself once I got to the show, that I have earned being here with my talent and work and focus , and would embrace an organization that treated me with the respect and gave me a shot. The Twin's aren't doing him any favors, and never have. He would be relished on any club, and perhaps given the opportunity he has earned.

     

    My thinking is that Plouffe and Sano split time at third, and if Sano can show that he can become a major league third base sacker, then Plouffe's highest value will come at the trade deadline, if he is to be traded. If Sano can't cut the mustard at third after given a fair lengthy chance, then a change would be appropriate to keep his bat in the lineup, if he is hitting like he has.

    Edited by h2oface
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    What track record are you speaking to exactly? He was never a particularly good minor leaguer, yeah he was always a little young for his level but he was never really considered much of a prospect.  I guess he was decent in Fort Meyers in 2012? Why do you think his bat will translate to OF, it was sketchy even at SS.  Who do you prefer him over, Rosario, Buxton, Kepler or Sano?  So many questions...

     

    alarp33, forgive me if I attempt to be brief. I posted concerning this matter a couple weeks ago in the forums section, and hit high points a couple pages ago in this thread. As of NOW, to repeat, I see a versatile and diverse role player. But the potential for more absolutely exists.

     

    Santana was never in a Twins top 10 prospect list, but he was in various top 20 lists. He was always, at worst, in the "keep an eye on" lists with reference to speed, power for his size/position, and overall athleticism. He turned 25 just a few weeks ago, was 24 during his disappointing 2015 season, and only 23 during his rather outstanding 2014 season...skipping AAA almost entirely, playing only 24 games total. He was 22 in '13 at AA, 21 at Ft Meyers and 20 at Beloit. He split 2010 between Beloit late and Elizabethton early as a 19 yo. He made his debut in the states in the GCL as an 18 yo. Look at his steady and rather aggressive progress through the system and you will see a player generally young at each and every level.

     

    Career milb AVG/OB of .276/ .319 and 6 straight seasons of double digit SB with a high of 30 in '13 at AA before making his ML debut in 2014. Milb OB 43 points above his BA. Yes, we want the OB higher, but again, consider the relative youth and potential. And when we talk potential, reflect on his 2014 rookie season at 23 yo...forget the awful and out of whack 2015 for a moment...and put it all together. At just a recently turned 25 yo, with his speed, decent pop, quick hands and some compromise between his milb numbers and his rookie campaign, I feel it's not unrealistic to think he could become an exciting and solid top of the order producer.

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    So far Santana is following Casilla's career path (different types of hitters).  Both had excellent defensive tools but neither could consistently make the routine plays.  Both showed flashes with the bat but they have also struggled mightily at times.  I think this year is his last chance with the Twins.

     

    I think Santana will be used as a MI/OF utility player this which gives the Twins some additional flexibility for the 4th and final bench spot since all of the defensive positions will be covered many times over with Santana and Nunez as well as the positional flexibility of Rosario (LF to CF), Sano (RF? to 3B), Park (DH to 1B) and a few others.  Most likely the 4th spot goes to Arcia but keeping Vargas isn't impossible (but unlikely).

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    I think it's telling that as winter meetings are coming to an end Sano was recalled from playing winter ball. Despite the lip service given to the Sano to outfield move I think they were trying to move Plouff and Ryan just didn't get an offer that he felt was worth it. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if the -out of options- Santana were (sic) the opening day center fielder until they feel Buxtons bat is ready to play.

     

    That would seem to be a lose lose to me. Santana hardly proved his bat was ready, both in MLB and in MiLB. So you start Santana, whose bat is just as suspect, if not more, than Buxton's, and the defense is not as good then, either.

    Edited by h2oface
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    Yes. To get to this final level and not even get an opportunity to perform in the position that is familiar, that is the only position you have been groomed for throughout the long minor league progression, and thrown into one when he finally reaches the top level that is totally unfamiliar. It is one thing to get the chance and fail, another to not even get a shot.

    While I would not argue that Plouff is the overall better player, he is established at that position. It happens a fair amount that when a team has a player they want up now, they find a place for them if they are blocked at there native position. It does usually happen at least a few months before they get called up (roster management), but it's certainly a common enough practice.

    Like a few have pointed out it seems to me it's a four player juggle. If I were the manager, I'd prefer to see Sano get the majority of the starts at 3rd and playing right when Mauer doesn't with Plouff splitting time with Park at first. Just a thought.

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