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  • Looking at 3 Under-The-Radar Shortstop Trade Targets


    Matt Braun

    For the third offseason in a row, the Twins will venture into the unknown in need of a shortstop. Carlos Correa is technically on the roster—MLB roster rules currently limit premature exits—but he will almost certainly opt out of his contract. If the Twins make the perfectly reasonable move of not re-signing a likely future Hall of Famer in his prime, here are a few under-the-radar players for Minnesota to target.

    Image courtesy of Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

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    Miguel Rojas
    Batting ability eludes Miguel Rojas—the 33-year-old owns a .260/.314/.358 career slash line, after all—but his defensive acumen stands somewhere between “slick” and “wizard-like.” Advanced stats and traditional numbers agree on his ability; Rojas is the 13th-best shortstop by OAA over the last three years, and his .980 career fielding percentage is 7th amongst 23 shortstops who have played at least 5,000 innings since 2014. 

    That first boot drops with extra authority, though; Rojas owns a "stomachable" 85 OPS+, but his line dropped across the board in 2022, and his OPS barely churned water above the .600 mark (.605). If the Twins acquire Rojas, his offensive ceiling will look similar to Andrelton Simmons’, and Simmons only became one of the most disliked Twins in recent memory. 

    According to Jim Bowden, the apparently frugal Yankees targeted Rojas at the trade deadline in 2022 but balked at the Marlins’ high asking price. Although their main target was pitcher Pablo López, not Rojas, New York’s interest reveals that a successful team, one that can undoubtedly aim higher, covets Rojas as a potential starter.

    Rojas signed an extension with the Marlins that will pay him $4.5 million in 2023, making him a cheap alternative to the expensive shortstops hitting free agency following the World Series.

    Rojas is a leader in Miami’s clubhouse and acts as their MLBPA representative—two critical skills Rojas could bring to a team potentially losing a well-respected player in Correa.

    Kyle Farmer
    The Twins have already poached 40% of the Reds' starting rotation; why not take their starting shortstop as well? Kyle Farmer can hit a touch more than Rojas—he owned an 88 OPS+ in 2021 and a 90 mark in 2022—but his defense remains more enigmatic; OAA loved his work in 2021 (92, very good) but found it repulsive in 2022 (34, not very good). 

    Let’s talk about that bat: Farmer is a tough batter to strike out—his 17.6% K rate over the last two seasons is the 37th lowest amongst 118 hitters with 1,000 plate appearances—and as you can glean from that previous stat, he has been durable as well; Farmer has played in 292 games over that stretch. He won’t wow anyone with his offensive capability, and moving from the Wiffle ball stadium that is Great American Ballpark likely will not help his numbers, but true versatility and availability are skills the Twins have lacked since the excellent 2019 season. 

    Farmer can play every infield position—including catcher—and owns a handful of innings in the outfield, although that should be a “break glass in case of emergency” option. The 31-year-old former Georgia Bulldog will not become a free agent until after the 2024 season.  

    C. Trent Rosecrans, the great Athletic beat writer covering the Reds, writes that “[i]n a clubhouse full of good guys (from the media standpoint), Farmer stood out.” Win or lose, and there were many losses on that Reds team, Farmer was always available to talk to the media. You never know how a guy will fit into a team, but acquiring a player with great character could be an unseen boost to the Twins.

    Nico Hoerner
    It’s implausible that the Cubs will trade Nico Hoerner; the 25-year-old enjoyed a true breakout 2022 season slashing .281/.327/.410 with excellent defense on a mediocre Cubs team. A player capable of that production would typically never swap teams, but the Cubs—always lustfully searching for their next terrible contract—could dump a pool of money on Trea Turner or Dansby Swanson and choose to swap Hoerner. This move isn’t likely to happen, but where’s the fun in only thinking logically?

    Hoerner is a player in the model of the Piranhas of old: a fast, high-batting average infielder with slick handles and a fun name. He could provide the Yin to the power/OBP Yang so prevalent in a modern Twins lineup, creating the peskiest 1-2 punch in baseball when paired with Luis Arraez. Hoerner and Arraez combined struck out at a lower rate than the average MLB hitter in 2022. Hoerner can also play passably in center field.

    The Twins would have to part with several prospects and young players—4 WAR infielders yet to hit arbitration do not grow on trees—but a package focused on a few redundant young arms and outfielders could do the trick. Ian Happ, Chicago’s main attraction, hits free agency soon, and the Cubs have not developed a good, young starter since Jake Arrieta grew out his beard. Again, this move is unlikely, but baseball is always good for a shocking transaction or two every off-season.

    Digging for unexpected players is always a fun activity, but this practice left a single impression: the Twins need to re-sign Correa. With as much respect as possible, players like Rojas and Farmer seem like great clubhouse fits, but neither moves the needle much for on-field ability, and these were some of the better players apparently available. 

    The Twins should probably act on Correa instead; good shortstops don’t grow on trees, and the ones that do like it when their paycheck reads “$300 million.” Rojas and Farmer are fun, upstanding players, but they feel like re-arranging one’s room rather than buying new furniture. We shall see what the Twins decide to do in the off-season, but these are a few players to keep your eye on

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    23 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

    I feel pretty confident they Twins aren't spending 25+ million on a starting pitcher unless they change their pitching philosophy next year.

    Also I am not a fan of another light hitting left handed hitting outfielder

    I'd also bet you were pretty confident last February that Correa wasn't signing with the Twins. And likely in June you were highly doubtful the Twins would go out and trade for a really good SP, a solid depth arm, and closer at the trading deadline. No shame in that, because I was 100% sure in both cases (and 100% wrong).

    But this front office, even in moves that haven't worked out (yet) is making far more aggressive moves than they (or any other group that I can remember) has made in the past. They clearly have the means (through excellent money management) to make this move (or others). They have the motivation (another lousy season, and ownership will almost have to roll heads). And I'm no longer 100% sure of anything, which is pretty refreshing.

    FYI... a) I am not a left/right fetishist (though Rocco clearly is); I'd rather see a legitimate left-handed hitter face a lefty than a AAA player like Kyle Garlick. Talent matters more than batting side.

    b) I'm also not locked in on who the bats are, but Andrew Benintendi hit .304 this year, stole 8 bags, had a 120 OPS+ while playing elite defense. His 2022 WAR of 3.2 would have placed him 4th on this year's Twins roster trailing only Correa, Arraez, and Buxton, and slightly ahead of Gio Urshela. He's played in the bright lights, his baseball IQ is light years beyond Celestino's, and Benintendi would be a serious upgrade over every Twins OF not named Buxton. (But again, that is just one option.)

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    On 10/19/2022 at 11:30 AM, jmlease1 said:

    If the money & years are right, it won't matter who is plugged in at SS. Just like it won't bring anybody in at a discount having Byron Buxton patrolling CF. Yes, players want to win and will look at the overall status of the club when deciding to sign somewhere, but at the end of the day FA signings have a lot more to do with years and dollars than anything else. It's the opportunity to make life-changing, generational wealth, even if it means playing with a guy who uses a frying pan rather than a glove behind them. Besides, people can convince themselves of anything: "They'll address SS next season. He's better than you think. Better team defense will make it look ok. I strike out everybody anyways." and so on...

    I'm sorry Jimmy, I don't agree. Top of the line pitchers when they have a choice, they like big markets and they love a great SS behind them. Poor defense creates runs against them, that costs them games, that makes them look bad which cost them $.  It's true they'll normally don't give discounts for defense (or anythingelse for matter of fact). 

    Gordon has never evaluated well at SS. The '21 fiasco, when they forced him to transform from a SS to CF breathed life into his dying baseball career. Now he's a much better OFer than INFer.

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    57 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

    I'm sorry Jimmy, I don't agree. Top of the line pitchers when they have a choice, they like big markets and they love a great SS behind them. Poor defense creates runs against them, that costs them games, that makes them look bad which cost them $.  It's true they'll normally don't give discounts for defense (or anythingelse for matter of fact). 

    Gordon has never evaluated well at SS. The '21 fiasco, when they forced him to transform from a SS to CF breathed life into his dying baseball career. Now he's a much better OFer than INFer.

    well, I'm not "jimmy", but whatev. Can you name a single instance of someone refusing to sign with a team because their SS defense sucked? Top pitchers do like big markets, because they pay the best, the endorsement opportunities are higher, etc. They also generally spend more and win more consistently. Gerrit Cole signed with the Yankees and I'm pretty sure the fact that Gleyber Torres was their SS didn't really impact the discussion. Didi Gregorius slipped enough at SS for the Yankees to move on from him, but it didn't get in the way of Zack Wheeler signing with the Phillies...and he's not been a good defender for them either (and in fact has been so bad on both ends that they would be a contender for Correa!).

    You're right: Gordon has been better defensively as an OF than an infielder, and I wouldn't consider him a great candidate to hold down SS even as an interim, and I think the Twins agree. But if we pay the money and get the years right, it wouldn't matter if he was out starting SS: a pitcher would sign, absent other complicating factors.

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    2 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

    well, I'm not "jimmy", but whatev. Can you name a single instance of someone refusing to sign with a team because their SS defense sucked? Top pitchers do like big markets, because they pay the best, the endorsement opportunities are higher, etc. They also generally spend more and win more consistently. Gerrit Cole signed with the Yankees and I'm pretty sure the fact that Gleyber Torres was their SS didn't really impact the discussion. Didi Gregorius slipped enough at SS for the Yankees to move on from him, but it didn't get in the way of Zack Wheeler signing with the Phillies...and he's not been a good defender for them either (and in fact has been so bad on both ends that they would be a contender for Correa!).

    You're right: Gordon has been better defensively as an OF than an infielder, and I wouldn't consider him a great candidate to hold down SS even as an interim, and I think the Twins agree. But if we pay the money and get the years right, it wouldn't matter if he was out starting SS: a pitcher would sign, absent other complicating factors.

    Sorry, my bad. I see what you mean where being well compensated & the exposure of being in NY they would overlook this setback. Maybe if a front line SP is given a premium over what they are worth to play in MN (which I doubt very much that they'd do) with a temporary sub par SS, they might consider it but I still doubt it.

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