Hayes: Twins To Sign Rich Hill & Homer Bailey

HIll is a total wild card and tough to really depend on at this point.  He's going to be 40 years old and underwent "modified" Tommy John surgery.  If he really is able to come back midseason and be as effective as he's been the past several seasons, it's complete gravy.

Bailey seems to be a total wildcard to me. Yes, he's been injured and terrible the lasat 3+ years. However, something seemed to click when he got traded to Oakland last year. Maybe Wes and the guys can build off that.

Nevertheless, it's disappointing because we all know deep down that these two moves are going to be it, more or less, on the pitching side this offseason.  

There is no evidence whatsoever that this FO is willing to put player before contract and settle for something other than low-risk, 1-year deals.  Gotta keep those books clean!  or something...

The battle for the AL central crown is going to be a dogfight

Praying that Graterol, Balazovic, and Duran pan out 

Whatever. I guess i'm the only one that doesn't want to get burned on long term deals that will be hard to swallow in the last 2+ years.

 

The Hill signing could turn out to be a steal. I would have rather brought in Wood over Bailey.

But what if the first couple years of the contract lead to a World Series trophy? A lot easier to digest in that scenario.

How so? Rich Hill has been one of the best pitchers in the league when he's healthy. People didn't hold that against Ryu.

But mostly, calling people garbage is an awful thing to do.

By what standards is Rich Hill now one of the best? 

101 wins, improved starting pitching and kept all of the top prospects.

I believe in Falvey / Levine until proven otherwise.

Stop thinking that signing a FA or 3 will somehow make it impossible to compete in the future. It wouldnt.

Or, At the very least, think of it this way: there's zero difference between the Twins wasting $20m in 2023 on a guy who is no longer productive, and wasting $20m in 2020 by putting it in Pohlads pocket.

How about to start thinking about the budget if the sign our core players to long term deals and have a couple of bad contracts to deal with as well. It's not about being cheap.

Think about extensions for Berrios, Buxton, Garver, Rogers, & possibly Arraez for starters.

Yes, the Pohlad's are being cheap having a 130M budget. They could easily raise it up to 175M without blinking and still clear over 50M+ a year.

There is nothing saying they can't use the money they have left in budget for a trade either now or in July.

101 wins, improved starting pitching and kept all of the top prospects.

 

I believe in Falvey / Levine until proven otherwise.

Where's this improved starting pitching? Best case scenario, it's on par with last year.

2.9 fWAR, based on his FIP. Bailey's actual runs allowed only resulted in a 1.8 bWAR for 2019 -- 75 starting pitchers posted higher bWAR marks in 2019.

 

Sometimes FIP looks like a good bet, but Bailey's career seems to be a story of FIP outperforming his ERA. Fangraphs gives him 16.4 fWAR for his career, but only 10.0 RA9-WAR, and as mentioned, bWAR likes him even less (5.9). Reminds me of Ricky Nolasco, who had 20.7 career fWAR when we signed him, but only 11.2 bWAR. And of course Nolasco was 2.5 years younger and without the arm injuries...

 

Bailey's not necessarily a bad pitcher, but given his age and track record, he seems firmly in the average / back of the rotation camp. Is that what the Twins FO had in mind when they brought up the term "impact pitching" this offseason?

If only 75 pitchers are better this year it is a good signing.

Over the last 3 seasons, Hill is averaging 2.6-2.7 bWAR/fWAR per 180 IP. That's solid, but one of the best in baseball?

Ryu was at 5.1/4.8 in 2019.

And therein lies the rub, Hill has averaged 109 IP the last 3 seasons.

Where's this improved starting pitching? Best case scenario, it's on par with last year.

Martin Perez started 29 games last year at a replacement level.

 Between Pineda and Hill being slated to join the rotation during the year, and the relatively low need for a 5th starter early in the season, the Twins are going to go with young guys.

And why not go with young guys?

How does a team ever develop pitching if young guys don't pitch to MLB hitters?

Let two of them tag-team a game every five days and see where they get and who shines.

Better to do this next year:  a.) identify the keepers now while it still matters;  b.) you have a great offense to score them runs and infuse a winning bravura.

We will need championship caliber pitching in 2020 or 2021; Falvine knows this and will land it at some point -- without compromising a long-term competitive approach.

How about to start thinking about the budget if the sign our core players to long term deals and have a couple of bad contracts to deal with as well. It's not about being cheap.

 

Think about extensions for Berrios, Buxton, Garver, Rogers, & possibly Arraez for starters.

 

Yes, the Pohlad's are being cheap having a 130M budget. They could easily raise it up to 175M without blinking and still clear over 50M+ a year.

 

There is nothing saying they can't use the money they have left in budget for a trade either now or in July.

Rogers will be entering his age 32 season and Garver his age 33 when they hit FA. How much do we think this FO will spend on either?

IMO it's too early to worry about Arraez and Buxton needs to prove he can stay somewhat healthy before you even think about waving big money at him.

That leaves Berrios, and he strikes me 100% as a guy that has so much confidence in himself that he's not going to sell out any of prime years for a lower guarantee. I hope they try, but I'd be shocked if he accepted.

And, given how this FO apparently views/values its prospects, there won't be any need to sign the existing pieces beyond their current contract terms.

Martin Perez started 29 games last year at a replacement level.

And so did Homer Bailey.

Other than a small number of posters,I think most are ok with young guys filling the last spot. But that has little to do with Hill and Bailey. Also, Pineda and Hill missing the first quarter and half year..... Means more young guys starting.

If you'd told me at the beginning of the off-season that the choices were rolling with some combination of Dobnak/Thorpe/Smeltzer or Bailey and praying for late-career health from Hill, I would've (after wiping the vomit from my chin) said "give me the young guys" - even though I think all three of them are AAAA filler.

Where's this improved starting pitching? Best case scenario, it's on par with last year.

Big Mike is better because he's one year further from TommyJohn.

Bailey is better than Perez.

Hill is better than Gibson.

Most significantly Big Mike and Hill will be available for the playoffs.

Trust in Falvey and Levine - they have earned it

They still do, last time I checked.  It is not over.

But when can we actually call time of death?

First it was "they'll get what they need at the deadline."

When that didn't happen it became "they'll get what they need in the offseason."

Now that the meal is over, they're picking at the scraps and it's become "the offseason isn't over yet."

Who is this mythical unicorn that's suddenly available via trade that wasn't out there at last year's deadline?

The team became competitive before they expected and they're still stuck in their long-term plan. They're seemingly not ready to run with their prospects or know which ones they can move to get the pieces they need.

So, will we actually say it's done when they don't trade for anyone, or will it simply become "well, they can go get whoever they want at the deadline because they've got flexibility."

I'm sick of being patient and not winning championships.

Big Mike is better because he's one year further from TommyJohn.

Bailey is better than Perez.

Hill is better than Gibson.

 

Most significantly Big Mike and Hill will be available for the playoffs.

 

Trust in Falvey and Levine - they have earned it

They absolutely have not earned it.

I'll take that bet! What are the stakes?

Are we talking about Homer Bailey pitching 150+ effective innings or simply occupying space on the mound? Because they're drastically different things - like Tortuga "being able to play" multiple positions and occupying space around those positions are different things.

They absolutely have not earned it.

Oh, oh, the thread is finding its depth now.

I say they do: the list is long on this team's successes.

Signing Polanco and Kepler to extensions. Stocking a lot of young pitching talent. Cruz. Arraez. Garver. Baldelli.  No stupid contracts. Wes Johnson? 101 wins? Most HRs ever? -- the one time they beat the Yanks, and which just might stand once they lower testosterone in their balls.

Oops.

Sure, it sucks to get Yanked in the playoffs again, but realistically, tough to beat Houston or New York.

And, impossible when you swing and play like Twins did.

Our franchise is much improved, on many levels.