Hayes: Twins To Sign Rich Hill & Homer Bailey

If Donaldson isn’t signed this team is in trouble.

Unless they swing a trade for a good starter this team is in trouble even if they sign Donaldson. Just my opinion.

Neither is what was needed but both are interesting pieces to have.  I haven't followed either much but highlights are always fun. 

Hill is a crafty old lefty with a funky delivery and bugs bunny curve, Dick Mountain is also an excellent nick name.  Looks like he is pretty fun to watch with the crazy pitch motion/ changing arm slots and timing/ big break.  We are collecting entertaining old spinners from the NL with him, Romo, and Clippard.

I remember clamoring to trade for Bailey at one point years ago, things obviously haven't gone great but maybe there is some pitching coach magic to work.  Seems hes is pretty Kyle Gibson-esque.  Nasty looking split seems hes had success focusing on it in recent success with Oak.

https://www.athleticsnation.com/2019/9/19/20873857/homer-bailey-trade-oakland-as-starting-rotation

i searched for other pitchers who have had primary revision surgery. I wasn’t successful at finding e apples of pitchers back in a half year. I really didn’t have success finding examples of pitchers with this surgery. I did run into several studies that weren’t helpful to me.

Is the same surgery that Tallion and Josh Rogers had last season? Tallion is not expected back until 2021.

The Twins won the deal and if he earns those incentives by pitching well he will earn the market rate for his play. I am less confident having searched that he will pitch effectively next year. Earlier I thought 25% but I would revise that down.

I would still do this deal. It does not stop them from signing Donaldson or taking on a good portion of Price’s contract. It is a gamble on a pitcher that has been very good when pitching for several years.

Hill had a repair, the others had a complete revision. The doctors are basically sewing the tendon back together. They may do a graft. 12 weeks recovery time has been reported as the healing time for the tendon,  It will take time after that to get it limber for pitching,

Homer bailey’s last 5 seasons.

22-39 5.56 ERA 79 ERA+ 4.71 FIP 1.532 WHIP 10.6 H/9 1.4 HR/9 7.3 K/9

And that’s INCLUDING his decent second half of last year, which you have to take with a grain of salt because virtually everyone pitches well in Oakland with that mammoth foul territory to catch pop ups

Homer Bailey had a 5.5 ERA sometime in August before facing the Royals twice, Angels, Giants and the Tigers. $7 million well you can pitch him against bad teams.

You might have included his two August starts against the Yankees with 17 strikeouts and 1 walk over 11.1 innings or his September win against the Astros. Over the 3 starts he gave up 4 runs in 16.2 innings. The A’s were 2-1 losing one of the Yankee games in extra innings.

Hill had a repair, the others had a complete revision. They are basically sewing the tendon back together.

Thanks.

I am curious about pitchers with a similar repair and their recovery, I didn’t find any but I need to search with repair.

Thanks.

I am curious about pitchers with a similar repair and their recovery, I didn’t find any but I need to search with repair.

https://www.andrewssportsmedicine.com/news/new-tommy-john-surgery-alternative-has-potential-to-cut-rehab-time-in-half

Had Hill underwent a full TJ his career might be over. He might be the first of many

The last time the Twins had 5 starters go the whole season was when. At 3 million Hill is an excellent gamble. 

With Homer Bailey I feel it is best to reserve judgement. Oakland found something and it worked. They fave the "financial flexibility" to do it.

false. Rich Hill and Homer Bailey will be available.

As will Odorizzi

https://www.andrewssportsmedicine.com/news/new-tommy-john-surgery-alternative-has-potential-to-cut-rehab-time-in-half

 

Had Hill underwent a full TJ his career might be over. He might be the first of many

First? Explains why I couldn’t find anyone. I hope it works.

If this is what is considered impact pitching I really don't want to see what dumpster diving looks like.

Sad to put it this way but

http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/12880538/seattle-mariners-pitcher-felix-hernandez-sets-tone-team-whole-season

You might have included his two August starts against the Yankees with 17 strikeouts and 1 walk over 11.1 innings or his September win against the Astros. Over the 3 starts he gave up 4 runs in 16.2 innings. The A’s were 2-1 losing one of the Yankee games in extra innings.

Not much point in cherry picking a couple good games. He’s had a bad stretch of several years

Stewart, Gonsalves, and Romero...its ironic you bring them up, since a couple years ago they'd have been the ones being touted as the "next wave" ready to dominate by midseason. All they needed was a chance!

Except 2 of the 3 (Stewart and Gonsalves) lacked plus stuff once in high minors and majors. Romero lacked a 2nd or 3rd pitch, and they really f’ed him up with the musical chairs to AAA, then Relief pitching. He was mishandled, and they now have to decide what to do with him while Stewart, Jay, Gonsalves and their mediocre stuff and lack of control are gone. Not the same scenario. There were always questions about their stuff (2 of them) or their ability to start. Also, if you ignore how the Dodgers, Indians, Cardinals Atlanta, and other teams build SP ‘in house’ and keep searching for FAs in an overpay and others rejects, you never find your Bieber’s and keep eating bad contracts and seeking SP. That is not a sound approach. Prove me wrong with similar examples of a team like Twins that did this successfully. Why was Falvey hired? It is time to trust his accumen and process, as we are never going to steal amyones #1, and rarely a #2. We need to find our own.

Not much point in cherry picking a couple good games. He’s had a bad stretch of several years

I just added to the narrative of his second half. You saw the other games in the original comment.

If I was going to look at a few games I would want to see how he did against the Yankees. Any Twins pitcher throw like that against the a Yankees last year? He had three starts against the Yankees. 17.1 innings, 23 strikeouts, 2 walks. 2.08 ERA. No one pitched better against the Yankees in 2019. Each of his three starts were better than any of the 9 Twins starts against the Yankees.

What does it mean? I don’t know but my reply was to the narrative that his good second half numbers were the result of pitching well against bad teams. The Yankees are not a bad hitting team.

We now have eight starters. Or at least parts of eight starters. This is a minimum requirement. The Twins are still in a good position to trade but not desperate. They can absorb a contract and still have plenty of prospects to trade if they find a deal to their liking. I think this is OK and the Twins are better positioned today than yesterday. But all I can think of is that commercial about when is just OK not good enough. The one where the patient asks the nurse about the doctor and she says he's OK.

I just added to the narrative of his second half. You saw the other games in the original comment.

 

If I was going to look at a few games I would want to see how he did against the Yankees. Any Twins pitcher throw like that against the a Yankees last year? He had three starts against the Yankees. 17.1 innings, 23 strikeouts, 2 walks. 2.08 ERA. No one pitched better against the Yankees in 2019. Each of his three starts were better than any of the 9 Twins starts against the Yankees.

 

What does it mean? I don’t know but my reply was to the narrative that his good second half numbers were the result of pitching well against bad teams. The Yankees are not a bad hitting team.

Fair enough. But as I said in another reply on this thread, whether it shows up in “park factors” or not lots of guys show improved numbers in that ballpark because of the massive amount of foul territory to catch pop ups

Bottom line:

The FO has done absolutely nothing yet during the off seaseon that increases our chances of playoff success next year.

Everything else is just background noise

Decent pickups, if you ignore the past 6 weeks.

More securement for the floor.  At this point the floor is eight foot thick, uranium-laced, titanium rebarred, earthquake-proofed, force-field protected concrete!!

Unfortunately, the ceiling made out of balsa wood....

Clearly the FO has so much faith in our young pitching that they’re doing all they can to make sure that they’re not blocked by guys with long contracts.

So did we sign these guys because we have a lot of faith in our system?

Or because all of the better options didn't want to come here?

So did we sign these guys because we have a lot of faith in our system?

 

Or because all of the better options didn't want to come here?

The idea that nobody wants to come here is, at best, a terrible reflection on the front office’s ability to woo talent. You can sell someone on anything when there’s big money involved.

Much more likely, is that the “nobody wants to come here” is just the excuse that this FO is using for not signing anyone of substance. This has become a huge talking point in the last year or so, and everyone seems to be buying it. I don’t even live in Minnesota but I think minneapolis is an amazing town... theres a 0% chance that every single big name option says “no way would I ever go there”.MLBTR had a report that straight up said the Twins didn’t pursue anyone aggressively this winter. Sure, no one wants to come here at a 25% discount. But if you offer the best deals, people absolutely will come. I don’t get why everyone is suddenly buying that excuse hook, line, and sucker.

Can the moderators please start banning the use of the phrase “impact pitching.” Its such a weak crutch for people to fall back on when they don’t want to critically think about why moves were made.

Stop. It’s tired.

Bailey replaces Gibson, plus we get a wildcard in Hill. This is smarter than signing Ryu, in my opinion

"The moves will likely disappointTwins fans, who have been waiting for the team to achieve its offseason goal of adding “impact” pitching, as neither pitcher represents impact pitching, or even an upgrade to last year’s starting rotation. They do, however, establish a “floor” for the starting rotation"........ By now it should be very difficult to disappoint Twins fans. Very. Difficult. I also don’t think the Twins need to establish a "floor" for the starting rotation. They been doing that for years and years. We are quite familiar with the floor, it’s the ceiling that’s the problem!

Fair enough. But as I said in another reply on this thread, whether it shows up in “park factors” or not lots of guys show improved numbers in that ballpark because of the massive amount of foul territory to catch pop ups

I suppose one could go to baseball-reference and see how many foul outs he got against NYY at Oakland.

I would say it’s highly likely it wasn’t a factor at all. Doesn’t mean, however, that I believe he will continue pitching well against the Yankees because he did a few times.

Unlike David Price, who has been shamefully pathetic against the Yankees his entire career. Signing him would be a nightmare

"The moves will likely disappointTwins fans, who have been waiting for the team to achieve its offseason goal of adding “impact” pitching, as neither pitcher represents impact pitching, or even an upgrade to last year’s starting rotation. They do, however, establish a “floor” for the starting rotation"........ By now it should be very difficult to disappoint Twins fans. Very. Difficult. I also don’t think the Twins need to establish a "floor" for the starting rotation. They been doing that for years and years. We are quite familiar with the floor, it’s the ceiling that’s the problem!

Normally, I might agree with you here, but with the uniqueness of this offseason (4 rotation spots to fill) I think it WAS very important to establish a rotation floor for a team coming off of 101 wins. Do I wish that floor included Cole, Strasburg, Wheeler, or Ryu? Yes. But, while the Bailey signing certainly isn't sexy, it's the type of signing that was almost certainly going to happen to fill one of the 4 open spots. 

"The moves will likely disappointTwins fans, who have been waiting for the team to achieve its offseason goal of adding “impact” pitching, as neither pitcher represents impact pitching, or even an upgrade to last year’s starting rotation. They do, however, establish a “floor” for the starting rotation"........ By now it should be very difficult to disappoint Twins fans. Very. Difficult. I also don’t think the Twins need to establish a "floor" for the starting rotation. They been doing that for years and years. We are quite familiar with the floor, it’s the ceiling that’s the problem!

Funny. I was very disappointed with what went down in October. I see a whole lot more disappointment over what went on in December as opposed what went down in October. People are still calling last year a success and anyone who does that one hand and gets chippy about the FO not overpaying for the four pitchers on the market last month is the complete opposite of me as a fan. Good, bad, whatever.

Had we gone further in the playoffs MAYBE this FO would have taken the big risk. I totally get why they aren’t

The idea that nobody wants to come here is, at best, a terrible reflection on the front office’s ability to woo talent. You can sell someone on anything when there’s big money involved.

 

Much more likely, is that the “nobody wants to come here” is just the excuse that this FO is using for not signing anyone of substance. This has become a huge talking point in the last year or so, and everyone seems to be buying it. I don’t even live in Minnesota but I think minneapolis is an amazing town... theres a 0% chance that every single big name option says “no way would I ever go there”.MLBTR had a report that straight up said the Twins didn’t pursue anyone aggressively this winter. Sure, no one wants to come here at a 25% discount. But if you offer the best deals, people absolutely will come. I don’t get why everyone is suddenly buying that excuse hook, line, and sucker.

"Not wanting to come here" meaning a combination of factors; bad weather, high taxes, lack of horse stables, what have you.

I also mean the contract terms that were (or weren't) offered, and the Twins reputation around the league.

So what I mean to ask is, did Falvine not improve the rotation because they have faith? Or because they struck out?