HAYES: Twins, Cruz Revive Contract Discussions

Personally, I think he's got a steep decline in front of him, so unless he accepts ~10 million, I'd say it's not happening.

Interestingly enough, over the last two seasons with the Twins he has his highest batting average and hight OBP% ever in his career for a full season.

Twins are in win-now mode.  Cruz needs to be brought back.  We need to see Rooker in a bigger sample size than 2020 to see if he could handle the larger role.  Don't love the idea of mixing and matching at DH either.  Cruz is a presence in the middle of the lineup that can't be replicated by a mixture of guys.  If the money doesn't go to Cruz, it'd better go to pitching.  

I find this article interesting https://www.talkingchop.com/2019/2/9/18202695/baseball-analysis-primer-aging  "the big finding is that hitters no longer peak, only decline. That doesn’t mean they start declining right away; the decline doesn’t get notable until around age 29. And again, this isn’t some kind of hard-and-fast rule for every hitter, it just describes what happens on average across the whole population."  

For those concerned about Cruz continuing to produce, this article supports you https://baseballwithr.wordpress.com/2017/05/08/what-age-do-baseball-players-peak/  When you see the peak performance outliers - remember that Cruz really had a very old peak - maybe he can keep it going after all Julio Franco was still playing (not very well) at 48, but he kept it going right up to that magic number. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/francju01.shtml

Lets not have his signing be at the cost, development of our younger talented players. Remember when Doug Meincavich was traded to Boston oh the uproar. Which young minor league player replaced him? A great defensive MVP fan favorite who would have won 1-3 more MVPs if not for the devastating injuries. Quoting Gandhi "to have a bright future one must step away from the past." We do not need a Home run hitting DH as in the next few weeks our FO will knock it out of the ball park! 

Be patient. It will happen. Cruz can only spend so much money in his lifetime. But  Cruz should  never waste his last chance to win a world series, have fun with the Twins staff and players, who adore him, and mentor  Sano and others and leave a legacy. He will be back.

Be patient. It will happen. Cruz can only spend so much money in his lifetime. But Cruz should never waste his last chance to win a world series, have fun with the Twins staff and players, who adore him, and mentor Sano and others and leave a legacy. He will be back.

We’re not even the best team in the division. The White Sox just blew our “window” shut with an aggressive offseason that we can only dream of (if you can call competing for the worst division in baseball for a couple years, while everyone else is in an intentional rebuild, and being embarrassingly uncompetitive in the playoffs, a “window”).

We watched arguably the greatest roster in Twins history (2019), and the runner up for Cy Young (Maeda) and MVP (Cruz) in 2020....basically the best case scenario two years in a row....and still got brushed out of the first round like a gnat. Not even a sliver of belonging there. Do we really think the roster is better into 2021?

If we’re not going to make some more impactful moves, we’ll be lucky to make the playoffs. If we do, Maeda, Berrios, and Pineda just aren’t going to get through multiple playoff series. We just don’t have the starting rotation or bullpen to compete at that level. We’ve seen it play out 3 of the last 4 years. Bring up all the regular season stats you want, it’s just a sad truth right now. J.A. Happ does absolutely nothing to remedy that. I’d rather have Hill and Odorizzi at 4/5 than Happ and Dobnak during the regular season. We also haven’t replaced two of our better relievers (May and Clippard).

On top of that, is there a position player on the roster right now that doesn’t have injury issues? Donaldson and Buxton will get hurt. Simmons, Polanco, Arraez, Sano, Kepler, and Garver have also dealt with injuries.

Maybe I’m just a cynical old Twins’ fan, but the guys seriously looking for titles are going elsewhere.

I’m still very torn on this. I am of the belief that the Twins need another SP and 1-2 relievers. I love Cruz as well. I don’t believe they will sign 3 players if one is Cruz. It will likely be Cruz and a reliever if they go the Cruz route. 
 

if I think about it logically, Cruz would probably provide a bigger impact to the team than any SP they would sign so I guess I lean that way...

It looks to me that the Dodgers or Braves will step in at 1 yr, $20 million once the universal DH is approved as part of the 2021 terms. The backroom negotiations are in full swing while we wait for the billionaires and millionaires- might as well smoke a fine Cuban or Dominican if you got ‘em!

Lots of differing opinions on this one. On one hand, if Cruz REALLY wanted to come back (and money wasn't the sticking point) this probably would have been done by now. How much tread does he still have? Is his value to the Twins more than just what he does in the lineup? Can the Twins compete for a post season spot in 2021?

Cruz, interestingly was the only offensive weapon the Twins had in their sorry series loss to Houston.

He is immensely popular with the fans. That probably doesn't matter in the negotiations. Would he sign with the Twins for less money than perhaps an NL offers because he wants to return?

I believe Twins will respect his contributions, and make him a fair offer. If he's not happy with the offer, he will go elsewhere.

The more and more I read and think about this I don’t want Cruz back. Sooner rather then later the shoe is going to drop. There are solid to good hitters that will likely take a minor league deal or few million big league deal.

Take the $ and go get the big Maple and sign a cheaper DH who can also play in the field and still have $ for a decent reliever.

To me it seems that Cruz is going to cost a starter and a decent reliever. Pitching still wins in the league and I’m not sure Cruz is a good bet to duplicate his past 2 seasons. Don’t pay for past performances!

Many ways Cruz helps and hurts.  His offensive production is great but... 

1-He won't put more fans in the stands this year because the combination of COVID-19 restrictions and pent up demand will likely allow all available seats to be sold. 

2-He likely has helped Sano develop as a human being but the credit for Sano's hitting so much better in 2019 obviously belongs to the now departed James Rowson.

3-The cost is going to be a lot of money, less defensive flexibility and less opportunities for development of other talents. 

My thumbnail cost/benefit analysis says to pass on this asset and use the savings on more pitching.

A guy like Renato Nunez, who was DFA's by the lowly Orioles in November could likely be had on a minor league or two-way contract for very little $$ and given 500 ABs would likely give you a .250 ba and 25 HR's while providing defensive flexibility at 3B and 1B(not good at either but better than Cruz).

Speaking of the Orioles, I see that they tried to defer the arbitration contract money owed to Trey Mancini and Anthony Santander.  Mancini would absolutely give the Twins a nice bat at DH and good defensive flexibility.  He is only owned $4.5m for 2021 and still has one more year for arbitration in 2022.  I would also be willing to move prospects to get Santander.  What do you think the Orioles would take for Mancini and Santander??

-Lamonte Wade is a local to the Baltimore area 

-Willians Astudillo gives them a DH to replace Mancini and back up catcher

-Nick Gordon might be the young middle infielder they are looking for to pair with Richie Martin

-Devin Smeltzer could be a quality starter in their rotation

This is likely not enough, but these are all guys that would help the Orioles rebuild as they are MLB ready or AAAA players that are CHEAP and can be productive in Baltimore.  Orioles would likely want more pitching but they do have a good number of young arms that are almost ready so perhaps we send some high ceiling A level player or players.

I think it will come down to what MLB does with DH in NL.  If NL has DH I think he walks for more money.  If not, my guess he will have to decide retire or go with what Twins offer.  I would like to see him back, but only if you can eat his contract should he fall off the cliff and be a liability.  

If the Twins leadership would like to see the return of Cruz, they need to demonstrate that they intend to win the World Series this year. A player of his age and stature knows its all about championships.

Make the trade for Castillo or Hader, stop talking about the AL Central title, and start focusing on the #1 seed for the playoffs. Show Nelson (and all of us) that the Twins are going to be ready for October.

A related possibility is that they have a handshake agreement already, for $X million if there is no DH in the NL, and $X+Y million if there is, reflecting what both sides probably agree is the differential of a larger market for his services. Or perhaps an understanding that he can explore with an NL team if the opportunity arises, and the Twins can match the best offer. Of course if the Dodgers offer crazy money, he is gone.

 

I just don't take the relative silence as meaning anything more than the parties see eye to eye, but are waiting for an event that is outside either party's control.
 

I agree that they most likely have an understand that DH in NL would affect his value, and they both understand the realities of the situation.  I doubt there is a handshake deal based on how that happens though.  My guess there is offer there, and both sides are fine with waiting to see how NL shakes out to look at how that affects other teams bidding on him.  I am sure there is a number Cruz agrees to regardless of other teams.