Has Wes Johnson Tipped Us Off on Twins' Pitching Philosophy?

It’s not like what Johnson is saying is a revolutionary, off-the-wall idea. Since the curveball was invented in the 19th century, pitchers have faced the challenge of making non-fastballs look appealing enough that batters actually swing at them, thereby capturing the advantage such changes of speed and direction are supposed to lend. Command and control are as important to success as velocity or movement, even in 2021.

However, the modern trends in MLB run increasingly toward what pitchers call “chase” secondary pitches. There are still hurlers who like to buckle knees with curves for called strikes, but most of the league leans toward sliders, which tend to have more lateral movement and (therefore) can more often miss the plate. The slider mostly works by inducing hitters to swing at what looks like a strike, but turns out not to be. Ditto for the changeup.

As a result, over the last three seasons, the league is throwing fewer and fewer non-fastballs for strikes. Breaking and offspeed stuff was in the zone 43.3 percent of the time in 2018, but just 41.6 percent of the time in 2019, and 41.3 percent of the time during the shortened first pandemic season.

Johnson, though, seems to want his pitchers to find the zone with non-fastballs on a more regular basis. The Twins hired him after the 2018 season, in which their pitchers threw just 39.5 percent of their non-heat for strikes. That was dead last in baseball. In 2019, though, they bumped up to 22nd, at 41.0 percent. Last year, with newcomers Matt Wisler and Kenta Maeda leading the way by leaning heavily on their breaking stuff but still filling up the zone, the Twins were fourth in MLB, at 43.4 percent of non-fastballs for strikes.

That’s a phenomenal turnaround, and captures the impressiveness of Johnson pretty neatly. The Twins’ pitching development infrastructure is good at several things, but this is one we hadn’t previously been able to identify and articulate.

The advantages are obvious. A profile like the one that made Wisler successful last year (success which, perhaps, the Twins are hoping to replicate this year with new blood) doesn’t work if the approach involves throwing the slider only as a chase pitch. A hurler who can demonstrate the feel to reshape and locate their breaking ball or changeup based on the count and the opposing hitter is extremely valuable.

Executing this strategy isn’t easy. It requires the team to scope out and acquire pitchers who do a difficult, somewhat rare thing well. It puts considerable pressure on their minor-league pitching coaches and coordinators, whom Johnson apparently tasks with getting talented young pitchers over a very advanced hump before they matriculate to the majors.

Nor is it the case that throwing more breaking balls and changeups for strikes is a universal good. The Dodgers were tops in baseball last year in throwing non-fastballs in the zone, but the two teams between them and the Twins (the Angels and Red Sox) were not pitching staffs of similar quality. Meanwhile, the excellent Rays and Brewers pitching staffs finished near the bottom of the league in this regard.

More than anything, then, Johnson is merely tipping us off to an organizational preference, when he talks about this. You can get a clear sense of the Twins’ style, and learn what to look for from a pitcher the team might be attempting to develop or acquire, but you can’t say for sure whether or not it will work. Even so, it’s nice to have the insight—whether Johnson meant to share as much or not.

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