Has Luis Arraez Earned a Starting Role?

2 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I agree with your assessment and your proposed solution. 

The Twins were 216-270 in the Molitor years and the game is entirely different now in how it is understood and played. 

He should be playing 5 out of 7 games, Only at 3B when they are resting Gio (which should account for 1 game), 1 in left and 3 at DH, and 2B whenever they rest Polanco. It doesn't seem that hard to get him playing time, for sure right now with AK, Sano and Kepler slumping.

Arraez is good with the stick but bad with the glove in simple terms. What to do with him is not as simple. The Twins need an on-base machine in their line-up to put someone on base for the big boppers to knock in. You could trade him but you will probably not get his value in return. Not every player on your team needs to be a slugger but that is not how the analytics folks think now days. 

2 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I would hate to see Arraez go to another team.  But with Lewis and Miranda on their way up sometime soon, something needs to change,  I contend that  Arraez should DH  enough to get 500 at bats a season.  Would you rather Arraez get 500 bats at DH or would you rather the 500 at bats at DH be 250 to Sanchez and 150 to Sano and 50 to Jeffers and  50 to Gio? Trade Sanchez and Sano at the trading deadline for a "defense first" catcher who bats lefthanded and more young flame throwers.

You mean trade for a young catcher, maybe someone like Ben Rortvedt?

Stone cold glove - his fielding this year seems to have disappeared.  DH and PH only at this point. This is an adjustment to my earlier statement after last nights game.

This is a good question, because Arraez is clearly one of the better hitters on the team (right now the only three clearly ahead are Buxton, Correa, and Polanco). He gives consistent competitive high average at-bats regardless of who he is facing. He runs up pitch counts, gives those on-deck extended looks, and can help force pitchers out earlier. 

The problem is both mediocre D, and the fact that his positions in the field are already covered by Polanco (better with bat and D) and Urshela (better at D, probably similar tier with bat). A straight platoon with Urshela doesn't fix much because either way it puts one of the better bats on the bench leaving three major weak spots in the order (Sano at 1B, Kepler in RF, fill-in-the-blank in LF). 

Most of us hope/believe part of this will be fixed with Kirilloff starting to hit, but the above situation is why I think Alex needs to stay in LF. Everyone is excited to supplant Sano at 1B, but Miguel has actually played pretty well over there this year (fruits of the slim down?), and Kirilloff could fill one of the Three Bat Voids by staying in LF.

Keeping Sano at 1B also lets you put one of the best hitters on your team in a position designed for one of your best hitters, DH. Arraez should probably be in the starting lineup about 3/4 of the time, and 2/3 of those should be at DH with the balance giving Urshela and Polanco days off. Lack of power? Who cares; this team's problem isn't a lack of people who can hit the ball out, it is a shortage of people who can consistently hit.

And I guess hope Alex hits soon. (I'm afraid at this point, Sano and Kepler are what they are. A big guy who strikes out a LOT, walks, can hit  really long home runs, but goes ice cold for months at a time. And a guy who literally seems incapable of adapting to shifts, and is really a defensive OF replacement at this point.)

The team needs a long-term solution at 3B and Arraez is not a great option.  Let's hope Miranda gets promoted after a great 6 weeks stretch and becomes the player we all hope he can be.  While we are hoping let's hope Lewis is the great comeback story of 2022.  Those two reaching their potential and holding down the left side of the infield for the next several years would be really / really nice.

43 minutes ago, roger said:

You mean trade for a young catcher, maybe someone like Ben Rortvedt?

Exactly this

1 hour ago, Johnny Ringo said:

The Twins were 216-270 in the Molitor years and the game is entirely different now in how it is understood and played. 

It is still throw the ball, hit the ball, catch the ball. 

What about right field?

4 hours ago, Johnny Ringo said:

There is a real reason Luis is a fan favorite. He is joyful and invigorating. He gives a professional at-bat in every plate appearance. He is an exceptional hitter against righties and is competent against lefties.  

But, despite neutral saber stats, he is a minus defender everywhere. In last night's game, he looked like he was plucked from the crowd to play third. This is not recency bias. If you take off the glasses of well-deserved fan bias, this has always been present. If you shot Rocco full of truth serum, I am sure he would agree.

He has bad knees. He does not hit for enough power to be a full-time DH. Last year was by far his biggest sample size and he posted a .733 OPS which is about the league average. (Cruz put up a .907 OPS stat line for the Twins last year.)

So, he presents a quandary. I love the guy but how to use him is one of Rocco's many challenges. I have often thought he might represent interesting trade bait to one of several tanking teams who are looking for cheaper players that can sell some tickets. That smile is a ticket promotion in itself. 

 

This is a really fair assessment. I'm one of those fans who see his at-bats and think, "This is a special hitter! I wish more players handled at-bats like this." 

I trust him more than any other hitter to give a hard-fought at-bat in a tight situation and I enjoy his style of hitting more than most modern hitters.

But, his fielding is below average. I don't expect he'll ever add much power. He's not fast. His knees chronically hamper him. There are already arguably better overall options in place at each of the positions he plays...

...And yet, I'd love to watch a baseball game with a lineup of 9 Luis Arraez's. 

Not sure what should be done if an injury to another infielder doesn't open a path to more playing time.  

Luis Arraez should be in the starting lineup almost every game.  Looking at his career stats, Arraez has a great OBP against left handed as well as right handed pitchers. His BA is higher against right handers but he draws walks more than twice as often against left handers. Arraez career OBP against RHP is .380, against LHP is .363. Looking at the Twins roster, over the course of this season it can be expected that Arraez' OBP will be the highest on the Twins.

The Twins need runners on base for their other batters to get RBIs.  Arraez gets on base better more often than any other Twin.  Obviously he has earned a starting role, he was a regular starter in 2019, 2020, and 2021 (except when he was injured).

Luis Arraez should be in the starting lineup as the DH when he is not starting at another position.  Arraez appears to be an average defensive player according to advanced defensive stats available.  He is still a young player and can improve defensively,  1st Base could be the ideal defensive position for him.

Without a man on base a hitter cannot get an RBI.  Arraez gets on base better than any other Twin.  With Arraez on the bench the Twins score significantly fewer runs.  He should be batting 1st, 2nd, or 3rd in the batting order.  

I think Luis has earned about 130 games and 350-450 at bats. The best part, at multiple positions. Almost a Super utility role. 

Arraez is a unique player and I like having him as a platoon infielder that will pinch hit/face righties. However, considering the fact that Jose Miranda and Royce Lewis will likely both be up by the end of the year, either Gio or Arraez will likely be traded at the deadline considering both can hold down 3rd for a majority of games. The Twins could still use a lefty starter/true ace and a good 4th Outfielder, so a couple more send-offs may be inevitable.

Sass. I like my players a little sassy, and Luis Arraez has that in spades. He's sassy. Shows up in his busy-bee plate appearances. Follows every pitch right back to the catcher. Shakes his head impatiently if it's out of the zone. Come on man, don't waste my time! He smells the ribbies, he sees the field. Slap! See how far this one goes! 

In the field, he's a little shaky. Not enough playing time? Might be part of it. Tips and tricks from superstar Correa might help a bit. Perfect form and balance helps, too. 

Knees are the problem. They don't tend to get better with more pounding on the field. That's why Baldy's plan right now is probably about right. Sub him in, DH him, move him around the infield, and pinch hit him. DH doesn't need to be a home run monster, if he fits in a certain lineup.

Solve a couple of problems at once.  Put Arraez at first base.  The Twins are not a good hitting team and need Arraez in the lineup. Bench or finally cut Sano.  They won't miss his crappy fielding and even worse hitting.  I doubt the Twins fans would be unhappy with the move. 

If you trade Arraez, I know in my heart that he will ultimately be replaced with a worse hitting option. They need that like they need a hole in the head.  Oh wait, they have Rocco.

I love having Arraez in the lineup every day. He's the kind of guy who walks up to the plate and in my head I'm feeling almost certain he's going to get a knock. His limiting factors are his speed (or lack thereof) and defense. He is erratic with his throws across the diamond from third (queue Oakland walk-off error in 2021), and not quick enough at second to play regularly. I personally like the option of having him DH more often than not. It stunts his defensive development, but in reality, he's never going to be a true utility player (Nick Gordon is closer to that mold than Arraez) where he can give you meaningful innings defensively. He doesn't fit the mold of a typical power-hitting DH like Nelson Cruz or Jim Thome, but it's not like the Twins are going to need more power in this lineup.

16 hours ago, Johnny Ringo said:

The Twins were 216-270 in the Molitor years and the game is entirely different now in how it is understood and played. 

And they might have been 186-300 without him, we have no way of knowing.  As for the game, it hasn't changed one iota, only how it is managed has changed and some people (me) don't see that as a good thing.  Between the pitch counts, innings limits, launch angles on swings, and 30-40% strike out rates, a little bit of Paul Molitor (or Luis Arraez)  is exactly what the game needs to remind us of the good the game can produce.  

Several have mentioned that Arraez should play first base, but is there evidence that he can play it adequately. His height can be a liability and his ability to dig out bad throws is, at least to me, an unknown. But, as a DH and PH he gets a PHD.

7 hours ago, Mark G said:

And they might have been 186-300 without him, we have no way of knowing.  As for the game, it hasn't changed one iota, only how it is managed has changed and some people (me) don't see that as a good thing.  Between the pitch counts, innings limits, launch angles on swings, and 30-40% strike out rates, a little bit of Paul Molitor (or Luis Arraez)  is exactly what the game needs to remind us of the good the game can produce.  

Boy, the saber guys need to go back and recalc Paul's WAR stats in those years because they are off by 25 games.  

Arraez is a horrible fielder. Over and over so far this year. 

Need his bat in the lineup.....LF is the best spot where he can hurt us the least.  And the fact that Rocco didn't have him play any outfield during spring training is just another example of his strange decision making.

22 minutes ago, cheeseheadgophfan said:

Need his bat in the lineup.....LF is the best spot where he can hurt us the least.  And the fact that Rocco didn't have him play any outfield during spring training is just another example of his strange decision making.

I think he'd do the least damage at 1B. He's going to be a pretty bad LF.

2B is his best position, but it is already taken ... so DH.

This is why, despite a deep appreciation for his tough at bats, Arraez was and is a prime candidate to trade.